June 16 (Bloomberg) –- Iraq's capital Baghdad appears safe, for now,
from the militants that overran the northern city of Mosul last week
amid large-scale defections from an Iraqi Army that the U.S. largely
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looks into America's investments in the militaries of other countries.
Video by: Brian Kartagener. (Source: Bloomberg)
The al-Qaeda breakaway group that has captured Iraq’s biggest northern city is on a recruitment drive in Saudi Arabia.
The evidence showed up last month in Riyadh,
where drivers woke up to find leaflets stuffed into the handles of
their car doors and in their windshields. They were promoting the
Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, which has grabbed the world’s
attention by seizing parts of northern Iraq. The militant group is also
using social media, such as Twitter and YouTube, to recruit young Saudi
men.
Already at war with the governments of Iraq and Syria,
ISIL also poses a potential threat to the Al Saud family’s rule over
the world’s biggest oil exporter. Saudi authorities gained the upper
hand in their battle with al-Qaeda, which targeted the kingdom a decade
ago, yet analysts said the latest generation of militants may be harder
to crush.
ISIL, known as Da’esh in Arabic, has “territorial ambitions and is far more difficult to deal with than al-Qaeda,” Mustafa Alani,
an analyst at the Geneva-based Gulf Research Center, said in a
telephone interview. “These people are able to hold ground, they have
army-like units, and they conduct terrorist attacks.”
Oil Surge
Stability in Saudi Arabia under the Al Saud has been essential for global oil markets. When supplies from Libya and sanction-hit Iran
were disrupted after 2011, the kingdom increased output to meet demand.
It produced 9.67 million barrels of oil a day in May, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg.
This image posted on a militant website on Saturday, June 14, 2014, which has been... Read More
Global oil markets have been rattled by the instability in Iraq. Brent crude
posted its biggest weekly jump for almost a year last week, and West
Texas Intermediate also surged. Brent futures pared gains today,
dropping 0.8 percent at 2:30 p.m. in London, as Iraq’s military struck back at the insurgents.
In
the past, the Saudi oil industry was an al-Qaeda target. The group’s
followers, including Saudi veterans of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq
who returned to the kingdom, attacked Abqaiq, the world’s largest oil
processing plant in the Eastern Province, with car bombs in 2006.
There
are concerns that conflicts in Syria and Iraq will play a similar role
to those earlier wars, pulling fighters from different Arab and European
countries.
‘Sectarian Policies’
In its first public
comment on the crisis in neighboring Iraq, the Saudi government said
that the tensions there were due to “sectarian policies” which
threatened its “stability and sovereignty,” according to the official Saudi Press Agency, which cited a cabinet statement. It warned against foreign intervention and urged Iraqis to form a national unity government.
This image posted on a militant website on June 14, 2014, which has been verified and... Read More
Al-Qaeda’s offshoots such as ISIL are increasingly taking
the initiative in the war against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. In
Iraq, they control a swathe of territory, and Saudi authorities are on
guard against local cells. Saudi Arabia conducted large military
exercises along its northern border in April, in a show of force against possible threats.
In May, the Interior Ministry
said it arrested 62 militants who were planning attacks against
domestic and foreign targets in the kingdom. Major General Mansour
al-Turki, the ministry’s spokesman, told Al Arabiya
that police are still looking for another 44 members. Some of the
suspects had ties with ISIL in Syria and with al-Qaeda’s splinter group
in Yemen.
‘Fake Beards’
“We recognize that all
terrorist-related groups are a threat, including ISIL,” al-Turki said in
an interview yesterday. “But our security forces are very well prepared
to handle any terrorism threat.”
The leaflets showed up on cars
on back streets in two residential neighborhoods in Riyadh in May,
according to a Saudi security official, who asked not to be identified
because police are still investigating the incident. It’s also unclear
if those responsible had direct contact with ISIL or were acting on
their own, the official said.
In the leaflets, the group warned
against Muslims with “fake beards,” or those who pretend to be followers
of Islam but are really its enemy, according to copies posted on
Twitter by residents of the capital.
Such language has often
been used by jihadi groups to criticize the Saudi monarchy, which
enforces Islamic law at home and yet has also cultivated an alliance
with the U.S., seen as enemies by most Islamists.
Extremist View
The
kingdom is home to Mecca’s Grand Mosque, Islam’s holiest shrine, which
was temporarily seized by militants in 1979. Juhayman al-Otaybi, who led
the takeover of the mosque, had accused the ruling Al Saud family of
being un-Islamic and called for them to stop selling oil to western
powers.
“The Saudi leadership is seen by many extremist groups, even those groups that Saudis financially support, as corrupt,” said Paul Sullivan, a Middle East specialist at Georgetown University in Washington.
Saudi
Arabia is backing the mainly Sunni rebels fighting Assad in Syria,
though there is no evidence that authorities are funding ISIL.
ISIL’s
printed literature also accused Western nations of using the war on
“terror” to assault the Muslim world, a message that may ring true with
some Saudis, who are suspicious of the U.S. role in the Middle East.
Painted Slogans
In the western Saudi city of Taif, a video posted on YouTube showed militant slogans spray-painted on government buildings.
Al-Turki
said police monitor young Saudis who engage in activities such as
spraying graffiti, or filming themselves carrying the banners of radical
groups, “in response to requests posted on terrorism-related accounts”
on social media. He said several are being questioned by authorities.
ISIL is “expanding its strategic campaign to the kingdom,” Theodore Karasik,
director of research at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military
Analysis in Dubai, said in a phone interview. “ISIL is using simple
information operations to get their message out.”
There’s a
potential audience of sympathizers in Saudi Arabia. Earlier this year, a
group of veiled Saudi women posted a video on YouTube calling upon
ISIL’s leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, to topple Al Saud because of “their
un-Islamic and unjust reign.” The authenticity of the video couldn’t be
independently verified.
‘More Brutal’
The language in the leaflet, and on the video, is reminiscent of Osama Bin Laden,
who also urged the overthrow of the Saudi rulers. By taking control of a
swathe of territory across northern Iraq and Syria, Al-Baghdadi’s
fighters have achieved gains that al-Qaeda never managed. The U.S. has
dispatched an aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf as President Barack Obama weighs options to halt the group’s advance in Iraq,
“Its
members are more brutal in their killings,” Abdulsalam Mohammed, head
of the Abaad Studies and Research Center in Sana’a and a specialist in
Islamic movements, said in a phone interview. “They have a greater
tendency to exploit and promote sectarian division. But they’re also
willing to target Sunni groups.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Glen Carey in Riyadh at gcarey8@bloomberg.net; Deema Almashabi in Riyadh at dalmashabi@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alaa Shahine at asalha@bloomberg.net Ben Holland, Mark Williams
Stability in Saudi Arabia under the Al Saud has been essential for global oil markets. When supplies from Libya and sanction-hit Iran
were disrupted after 2011, the kingdom increased output to meet demand.
It produced 9.67 million barrels of oil a day in May, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg. 
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