Sunday, July 27, 2014

reprint of the Carrington Event from Wikipedia

12% Chance that we will lose all cellphones one da...

The above article you can click on if you want to read it has a researcher that predicted the 12% chance by going through databases of previous Solar Flare events. Even he was surprised that the chance was above 10%. One of the reasons for this is that our magnetosphere is degrading at an alarming rate especially since the year around 2000. So, when a solar flare occurs we aren't protected always like we used to be. So, it is not only dangerous for cell phones it is also somewhat dangerous for all electronic components that are above about 10 feet below ground which could be affected by a solar flare the size of the Carrington event. So, I'm sharing this because since 1859 this was the biggest one to hit earth and even with just telegraph lines then (not even telephones) fires started, sparks shocked telegraph operators, and people could read newspapers at night in many many places all over the earth outside just from the spectacular northern lights. So, if you have any knowledge of what magnetics, and electrical coronas can do to microcomputer processors and magnetic memory you know how serious this problem is. Beyond that, what would happen to passenger planes? Unless they are wired like military vehicles are they too might fall out of the sky if they aren't specially wired like many military vehicles and planes are to withstand the Electromagnetic pulse of a nuclear weapon going off which is similar in some ways to an extreme event like the "Carrington Event".
 

Solar storm of 1859

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Sunspots of September 1, 1859, as sketched by Richard Carrington. A and B mark the initial positions of an intensely bright event, which moved over the course of 5 minutes to C and D before disappearing.
The solar storm of 1859, also known as the Carrington Event,[1] was a powerful geomagnetic solar storm in 1859 during solar cycle 10. A solar flare or coronal mass ejection hit Earth's magnetosphere and induced the largest known solar storm, which was observed and recorded by Richard C. Carrington.
On July 23, 2012, a massive, and potentially damaging, "Carrington-class" Solar Superstorm (Solar flare, Coronal mass ejection, Solar EMP) barely missed Earth, according to NASA.[2][3] There is estimated to be a 12% chance of a similar event actually hitting Earth in the next ten years.[2]

Carrington Super Flare

From August 28, 1859, until September 2, numerous sunspots were observed on the Sun. Just before noon on September 1, the English amateur astronomers Richard Carrington and Richard Hodgson independently made the first observations of a solar flare.[4] It caused a major coronal mass ejection (CME) to travel directly toward Earth, taking 17.6 hours. Such a journey normally takes three to four days. This second CME moved so quickly because the first one had cleared the way of the ambient solar wind plasma.[4]
Because of a simultaneous "crochet" observed in the Kew Observatory magnetometer record by Scottish physicist Balfour Stewart and a geomagnetic storm observed the following day, Carrington suspected a solar-terrestrial connection. Worldwide reports on the effects of the geomagnetic storm of 1859 were compiled and published by Elias Loomis which support the observations of Carrington and Stewart.
On August 29, 1859, southern aurorae were observed as far north as Queensland in Australia.[5]
On September 1–2, 1859, the largest recorded geomagnetic storm occurred. Aurorae were seen around the world, those in the northern hemisphere even as far south as the Caribbean; those over the Rocky Mountains were so bright that their glow awoke gold miners, who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning.[4] People who happened to be awake in the northeastern US could read a newspaper by the aurora's light.[6] The aurora was visible as far from the poles as Cuba and Hawaii.[7]
Telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed, in some cases giving telegraph operators electric shocks.[8] Telegraph pylons threw sparks.[9] Some telegraph systems continued to send and receive messages despite having been disconnected from their power supplies.[10]
On Saturday, September 3, 1859, the Baltimore American and Commercial Advertiser reported, "Those who happened to be out late on Thursday night had an opportunity of witnessing another magnificent display of the auroral lights. The phenomenon was very similar to the display on Sunday night, though at times the light was, if possible, more brilliant, and the prismatic hues more varied and gorgeous. The light appeared to cover the whole firmament, apparently like a luminous cloud, through which the stars of the larger magnitude indistinctly shone. The light was greater than that of the moon at its full, but had an indescribable softness and delicacy that seemed to envelop everything upon which it rested. Between 12 and 1 o'clock, when the display was at its full brilliancy, the quiet streets of the city resting under this strange light, presented a beautiful as well as singular appearance."[11]
In June 2013, a joint venture from researchers at Lloyd's of London and Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) in the United States used data from the Carrington Event to estimate the current cost of a similar event to the US at $0.6-2.6 trillion.[12]

Similar events

Ice cores containing thin nitrate-rich layers have been analyzed to reconstruct a history of past solar storms predating reliable observations. Data from Greenland ice cores, gathered by Kenneth G. McCracken[13] and others, show evidence that events of this magnitude—as measured by high-energy proton radiation, not geomagnetic effect—occur approximately once per 500 years, with events at least one-fifth as large occurring several times per century.[14] However, more recent work by the ice core community (McCracken et al are space scientists) shows that nitrate spikes are not a result of solar energetic particle events, so use of this technique is in doubt. 10Be and 14C are considered to be more reliable indicators by the ice core community.[15] These similar but much more extreme cosmic ray events, however, may originate outside the solar system and even outside the galaxy. Less severe storms have occurred in 1921 and 1960, when widespread radio disruption was reported. The March 1989 geomagnetic storm knocked out power across large sections of Quebec. In July 2012 a coronal mass ejection understood to be similar in magnitude was observed; its trajectory missed Earth in orbit. Information about these observations was shared first publicly by NASA on April 28, 2014.[2][3]

See also

References

  1. Philips, Tony (January 21, 2009). "Severe Space Weather--Social and Economic Impacts". NASA Science: Science News (science.nasa.gov). Retrieved February 16, 2011.
  2. Phillips, Dr. Tony (July 23, 2014). "Near Miss: The Solar Superstorm of July 2012". NASA. Retrieved July 26, 2014.
  3. Staff (April 28, 2014). "Video (04:03) - Carrington-class coronal mass ejection narrowly misses Earth". NASA. Retrieved July 26, 2014.
  4. Odenwald, Sten F.; Green, James L. (July 28, 2008). "Bracing the Satellite Infrastructure for a Solar Superstorm". Scientific American. Retrieved February 16, 2011.
  5. "SOUTHERN AURORA.". The Moreton Bay Courier (Brisbane, Qld. : 1846 - 1861) (Brisbane, Qld.: National Library of Australia). 7 September 1859. p. 2. Retrieved 17 May 2013.
  6. Richard A. Lovett (March 2, 2011). "What If the Biggest Solar Storm on Record Happened Today?". National Geographic News. Retrieved September 5, 2011.
  7. "Monster radiation burst from Sun". BBC News. 14 May 2013. Retrieved 15 May 2013.
  8. Committee on the Societal and Economic Impacts of Severe Space Weather Events: A Workshop, National Research Council (2008). Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report. National Academies Press. p. 13. ISBN 0-309-12769-6.
  9. Odenwald, Sten F. (2002). The 23rd Cycle. Columbia University Press. p. 28. ISBN 0-231-12079-6.
  10. Carlowicz, Michael J.; Lopez, Ramon E. (2002). Storms from the Sun: The Emerging Science of Space Weather. National Academies Press. p. 58. ISBN 0-309-07642-0.
  11. "The Aurora Borealis". Baltimore American and Commercial Advertiser (Baltimore, Maryland). September 3, 1859. p. 2; Column 2. Retrieved February 16, 2011.
  12. http://www.lloyds.com/~/media/lloyds/reports/emerging%20risk%20reports/solar%20storm%20risk%20to%20the%20north%20american%20electric%20grid.pdf
  13. "How do you determine the effects of a solar flare that took place 150 years ago?". Stuart Clarks Universe. Retrieved May 23, 2012.
  14. McCracken, K. G.; Dreschhoff, G. A. M.; Zeller, E. J.; Smart, D. F.; Shea, M. A. (2001). "Solar cosmic ray events for the period 1561–1994 1. Identification in polar ice, 1561–1950". Journal of Geophysical Research 106 (A10): 21,585–21,598. Bibcode:2001JGR...10621585M. doi:10.1029/2000JA000237. Closed access
  15. Wolff, E. W.; Bigler, M.; Curran, M. A. J.; Dibb, J.; Frey, M. M.; Legrand, M. (2012). "The Carrington event not observed in most ice core nitrate records". Geophysical Research Letters 39 (8): 21,585–21,598. Bibcode:2012GeoRL..39.8503W. doi:10.1029/2012GL051603. Closed access

Further reading

External links

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