First of all, how did ISIL get to where it is now? Basically, ISIL is caused by a reaction to what Assad, Putin and Iran and Hezbollah (funded by Iran) have done to Sunnis in Syria. This caused funding for ISIL to snowball as they are the most effective fighters known in the area against Assad's armies. So, Assad paid of ISIL because they were too much for him to deal with. ISIL used this land and oil wells and everything else to genocide anyone they didn't like. But, mostly they tend to genocide all Christians(who lived in the are the last 2000 years or so) and any Shia Muslims that they don't like or who don't swear allegiance to ISIL. So, basically anyone who ISIL doesn't like has all their possessions and lands taken from them and they either run away then or are beheaded or killed or starved to death directly or indirectly.
Sunnis throughout the world often see this as justice for Shias who they think should be done away with and so richer Sunnis fund ISIL to continue killing Shias and Christians and anyone else ISIL doesn't like from funds from throughout the Sunni Arab World (1.2 billion Sunni Muslims).
For the U.S. or Europe to step directly into the middle of this bloodbath they all know this is going to just invite more 9-11s in the U.S. and Europe.
So, it is more likely that the U.S. and Europe might step back a little from all this carnage until they are directly attacked. Then you might see more cruise missiles and jet fighters and drones taking out more and more ISIL targets at that point.
But, if ISIL doesn't directly attack the U.S. or European Interests I just think you will see U.S. advisors protecting what is left of the Iraqi government from being completely wiped out by ISIL. IN other words the U.S. doesn't want the complete collapse of the Iraqi government. However, I'm not sure what Iran wants. They might want to take over Iraq completely and make it a part of Iran? I'm not really sure long term what Iran has in mind.
However, overlaid on top of all this is Europe's and the U.S. mistrust ongoing of Russia and China. Both the U.S. and Europe know that an eventual war might happen between Europe and the U.S. and Canada and Australia on one side (and any other countries with the same interests) against either China or Russia or Both.
But, the problem with this is the U.S., China, Russia, Great Britain, Germany, Israel, Iran(maybe), India and Pakistan all have nuclear weapons. I think France has nuclear weapons too.
So, only a Cold war is possible without ending all life on earth.
Unless the EU and the US process all these elements at once they are positioning themselves for a very dangerous future.
One point of view in the western World and in Russia would be: "Let the Shia Extremists and Sunni Extremists all kill each other."
However, it is not that simple. Letting this happen likely will start a World War II scenario in the Middle East and create horrific conditions in the Middle east and Northern Africa over the next few years that will definitely end more governments and change borders from anything anyone has known for the last century or so.
Also, extinction of most Christians (who do not leave their native areas) and Shias (who do not leave their native areas) or Sunnis who are in areas being fought over by Shia groups are all going to become extinct in those areas if they don't leave with their families and go somewhere else on earth to better survive this Middle Eastern Catastrophe that looks to be worse than anything in at least the last 100 years there.
No comments:
Post a Comment