He estimates that between 40% and 80% of the people in New York State will get infected by coronavirus. He's trying to keep it down to 40% or lower by shutting down the state so the hospitals don't get so overwhelmed that the death rate skyrockets like it has in Italy. The only consideration here is how fast this all is going to happen. If we slow this down by sheltering in place the Hospitals will be able to save more lives and not have to go into triage where younger people are prioritized over older people because of standard triage methods during wartime (so this is a lot like a war now).
40% of New York state is 7.8 million people. 80% of New York State is 15.6 million people.
2% of 7.8 million people is: 156,000 deaths 2% of 15.6 million people is: 312,000 deaths
So, by closing businesses he is trying to save 156,000 lives during the next few months.
The more you have to get into triage because of lack of resources and healthy doctors and nurses the more people 50 on up are going to die without treatment at home.
This sort of thing will move in fits and spurts all over the country through the next 6 months I would say.
Within 5 years, however, everyone on earth will either die or become immune relatively to coronavirus one or the other. So, let's pray for the vaccine BEFORE 156 million people on earth (2%) die of this thing.
Data regarding the 40% to 80% of New Yorkers getting coronavirus in the next 2 months comes from Governor Cuomo through CNN Saturday Morning March 21st 2020
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