begin quote from Asheville Citizen Times:
Predictions show strong El Niño event in 2026. What it means for NC
Iris Seaton- Meteorologists predict a potentially strong El Niño climate pattern will form in the coming weeks of 2026.
- El Niño is a climate pattern that can cause warmer, drier weather in the northern U.S. and wetter conditions in the Southeast.
- While El Niño often decreases Atlantic hurricane activity, major storms can still make landfall in the U.S. during these periods.
As summer approaches, meteorologists and climate scientists focus in on El Niño predictions.
Attention has been drawn worldwide around predictions that El Niño will form in weeks ahead, with median estimates showing that the climate pattern could be particularly strong in 2026.
El Niño can affect weather significantly; warmer waters associated with the pattern cause the Pacific jet stream to move south, with the northern U.S. and Canada becoming dryer and warmer than usual. In the Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding.
Previous El Niños have been associated with severe flooding and droughts, wildfires and more. Here's what North Carolinians need to know in 2026 as predictions continue to show a potentially strong El Niño season.
What is El Niño? La Niña?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration explains that El Niño and La Niña are opposing climate patterns that break normal conditions of water and weather in the Pacific Ocean. The patterns have global impacts on weather, wildfires, ecosystems and economies.
La Niña: La Niña, meaning "Little Girl" in Spanish, brings stronger trade winds to the Pacific, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
Cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward, tending to lead to drought in the Southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. La Niña can also result in a more severe hurricane season, which is what experts are concerned about in 2024.
El Niño: During El Niño, meaning "Little Boy" in Spanish, conditions are reversed. Trade winds weaken and warm water is pushed back east, toward the west coast of the Americas.
El Niño can also affect the weather significantly. Warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south, causing the northern U.S. and Canada to become drier and warmer than usual. In the Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding.
Is it an El Niño year in 2026?
Yes, El Niño is expected to form in the weeks ahead, according to a May 8 report from USA TODAY.
Will there be a strong El Niño in 2026?
Zeke Hausfather, director of climate and energy at the Breakthrough Institute and a research scientist with Berkeley Earth, told USA TODAY that median estimates predict "quite a strong event" this year. In fact, Hausfather predicted that this year's El Niño would be "among the strongest" seen in recent history.
Additionally, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration put the chances of a strong El Niño at one in four during its April update. Since then, ocean surface temperatures have been climbing in the El Niño region. NOAA's next update comes on May 14.
While odds are increasing for a strong El Niño this year, the full strength of the event remains up in the air. Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami, offered a word of caution on early speculations in a recent social post.
"There is lots of chatter about the forecast development of a strong #ElNiño," McNoldy said. The models are in very good agreement on that. But the consensus is an 'average' strong El Niño, not historic."
What does a strong El Niño mean for the US, NC?
A strong El Niño brings additional heat; previous El Niños have fueled wildfires, caused extreme flooding and severe droughts, prompted widespread coral bleaching and disrupted marine life migrations and foraging.
How does El Niño affect hurricane season?
While El Niño tends to decrease tropical activity in the Atlantic ocean due to downdrafts and sinking winds associated with the phenomenon, the National Hurricane Center warns the public against letting their guard down. When comparing 15 of the warmer El Niños on record, at least 37 named storms have made landfall in the contiguous U.S., including 14 hurricanes.
North Carolina hurricanes in 2025, tropical activity
A report from the NOAA on 2025 tropical activity noted that only one storm, Tropical Storm Chantal, made landfall in the U.S. in 2025. Chantal brought excessive rainfall and flooding to N.C. While other storms did not make landfall, the report also noted that Hurricane Erin, a Category 5 storm, brought storm surge and tropical storm conditions to N.C.'s Outer Banks region. Other storms, including Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda, also affected North Carolina in 2025.
Iris Seaton is the trending news reporter for the Asheville Citizen Times, part of the USA TODAY Network. Reach her at iseaton@citizentimes.com.
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