Monday, March 9, 2020

Most people believe this will be a U shaped dip and recovery for U.S.

What do I mean by this?

The market has dropped quite a bit from almost 30,000 recently to 23,800 approximately. However, when the coronavirus starts dying out or not getting as bad for the summer in the northern Hemisphere at least, there likely will be a U-Shaped recovery. What will this look like? Unknown but logically stocks might recover to some degree. However, the drop is so severe it might have triggered a recession even here in the U.S. and possibly worse elsewhere on earth.

However, if it is like the 2019 Spanish flu we might also see 100,000 or more dying suddenly in October just before the election on November 4th here in the U.S.

So, if this is a pandemic anything like the one in 1918 this is what we might face here in the U.S. in the fall of 2020.

However, between April and September likely the U.S. economy might recover somewhat.

But, if it does prove to be like the 1918 Fall Apocalypse of of Spanish Flu in Fall 2020 then I'm not sure what happens next after that. Just burying everyone and wills and Trusts etc. is going to occupy the country for some time after that.

The amount of deaths would be greater than in a major war like World war I at least for the U.S. and for the world if this happens it would be greater than the deaths in World war II for the whole world.

For example, 2% of 7.8 billion people (present population of earth) is 156, 000,000 people which is at least 1 1/2 times the number that died in World War II.

However, theoretically this could not happen because some people will have natural immunities to this and some people might never be exposed to it for years and years because they live so remotely.

So, I figure a more realistic figure for a Spanish Flu type of pandemic (if this is what this is too) would be 100 million deaths worldwide from this pandemic by this time next year.

However, with much better health care now and the possibility of a vaccine within 18 months if 100 million people actually die worldwide from this one anyone after that could possibly get a Coronavirus shot and be okay sort of like a flu shot (at least for this version of coronavirus) until the next new outbreak and then another 18 months until the next vaccine is tested and used.

So, if this New Coronavirus mutates after the vaccine is created they might need to wait another 18 months and then another and then another for mutations of this virus (or two viruses S and L).

L is the more fatal one that is killing people a lot at 20 times the rate of the common flu.

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