Thursday, August 12, 2010

Gary Shilling sees 10 years of 2% increase in GDP


  • Play VideoPlay Video
    To read or watch Gary schilling's Yahoo Business interview click on "Low Growth" above:
    Rather than quoting directly I want to paraphrase what I heard in this Yahoo business interview. First of all he said that we need 3.3 % GDP increase in the U.S. to just maintain our present unemployment rate so this means an increase of unemployment of about 1% per year for the next 10 years since we will likely be at around 2% increase in growth per year.
    The reason for this is that we have about 40 years of leveraging (loans and credit) to deleverage from and this will take (worldwide) about 10 years. end paraphrasing from yahoo video and news article.

    Yes. I agree with Schilling, unfortunately for us all. Though it is true that something amazing might happen to change all this the likelihood is that (given the present dynamics) that the next 10 years will see this very slow increase in unemployment while a somewhat equal but slow increase in the GDP will very slowly grow the economy. 

    I wouldn't have understood the dynamics of this until I began reading "The End of the Free Market" by Ian Bremmer recently. However, once I realized just how gamed the present U.S. and world economic system was, and after I realized how strange the worldwide effects are of billions of fluke like purchases worldwide over the internet influence world economies I realized that we are all in a very gamed "Brave New World" type of scenario that is very ungoverned, unregulated, and mostly bad at present for everyone. Of course, those who likely will suffer the very most are in third world countries who are very poor. However, strangely enough many of these same 2nd or 3rd world countries if they have a lot of untapped natural resources might also relatively speaking come out the best during the next 10 years as well. Whereas places like Europe and the U.S. might be in this sort of slow growth static state for the next 10 years that reminds me a lot of Japan's last 20 years.
    In other words they couldn't really gain much ground but weren't really losing ground either. This is what the U.S. and Europe are looking forward to also I believe at present.

    What could make the U.S. and Europe situation better?

    Find a way to either regulate or ungame the world economicsystem so there could be more progress in regard to across border internet transactions or helping the world economic system be more fair and integrated for all parties. If this isn't done the gaming of the world economic system by the unregulated purchases worldwide in a fluke kind of way of billions of transactions will make all nation states weaker and weaker and less effective to the point where all nations will become like mythological fictions at least in regard to all financial transactions across borders.
    State controlled capitalistic systems that punish all corporations other than local homegrown ones such as we find in China and Saudi Arabia will also game the system against all nation state's that are outside the borders of those state controlled capitalistic systems. This will further weaken trust between nations and force many nations into trade wars of various kinds. These kinds of trade wars will only cause further  increases in unemployment worldwide including in China and Saudi Arabia and other state controlled economic systems.

    The likelihood of isolationism at least in an economic sense of many nations is likely to raise it's ugly head during the next 10 or 20 years.

    There will be very unusual dynamics never seen before because of all these relatively new manipulative factors on the world economic system.

    Look for economics to be seen as a new form of warfare now that nuclear weapons have rendered real all out war obsolete between larger nations.

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