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A Stock Market Slide Ignites Broader Fears
It has been a rocky start to the new
year, with investors continuing to worry about China’s currency and the
health of its economy. In the first week of 2016, steep losses in the
Chinese market triggered a circuit breaker, shutting down trading early
on two days. As the tumult sparked a global rout, China suspended the
newly installed circuit breaker.
Peak
June 12
0
Change in the
Shanghai composite index
relative to the peak
June 25
The Chinese central
bank injects cash into
the financial markets.
–10
%
Aug. 11
China devalues
its currency.
June 27
The central bank
cuts interest rates
and lets banks
lend more.
–20
Oct. 19
China reports
growth slips in
the third quarter
–30
July 1
Regulators allow
homes and other real
assets as collateral
when borrowing to
buy stocks.
July 8
–32%
–40
Jan. 7, 2016
Chinese stocks fall
7 percent, triggering a
close of the market
–40%
Aug. 25
China cuts interest
rates again.
Aug. 26
–43%
–50
July
June
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
May 2015
The New York Times|Source: Reuters
Economic Uncertainty Reigns in China
Although the government puts China’s
official growth at 6.9 percent in the third quarter, some economists
question whether the economy is slowing more quickly. The recent
currency troubles have been particularly worrisome. While a weaker
currency helps Chinese exporters, it also drives individual and
companies to move money out of the country, adding to the pressure. Here
are two alternative estimates of China’s output.
+20
%
China’s gross domestic product
Year-over-year change
+16
+12
+12
%
Official figures
Official figures
3d qtr.
2015:
3d qtr.
2015:
+8
+8
+6.9%
+6.9%
+4
+4
Estimates through the second quarter by:
Capital Economics
Estimates through the third quarter by:
Lombard Street
0
0
’05
’15
’05
’15
The New York Times|Sources: Reuters; Capital Economics; Lombard Street Research
Chinese Trade Is a Driving Economic Force
With China’s economy slipping,
countries with significant exposure to raw materials, like Australia and
Brazil, are facing serious headwinds. Germany exports machinery and
automobiles to China, which had been a counterbalance to slow growth in
Europe.
China’s 2013 trade with each country
Total value of imports plus exports
Russia
Germany
Japan
United States
South Korea
Taiwan
Hong Kong
Malaysia
Brazil
Australia
$500
billion
300
100
United
States
Hong
Kong
South
Korea
China’s exports
and imports to:
Japan
Taiwan
Germany
Australia
Malaysia
Brazil
Russia
EXPORTS
$368
bil.
$385
$150
$91
$41
$67
$38
$46
$36
$50
IMPORTS
153
16
162
183
157
94
98
60
54
40
TOTAL TRADE
521
401
313
274
197
162
136
106
90
89
Figures are rounded.
The New York Times|Sources: China's General Administration of Customs, via CEIC data
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