Monday, September 7, 2015

IF the IRan nuclear agreement is signed and goes into effect

I was just thinking that the price of oil likely would drop to $25 a barrel or below quite quickly if and when the sanctions go off Iranian oil. This would be a boon to drivers worldwide and anyone who moves anything by way of gas or diesel or air worldwide. However, for oil companies and oil drillers and shale oil miners world wide this is a complete disaster because it will drive so many of them out of business in the short and long run.

So, for oil drillers and for shale miners and all countries for whom oil is one of their only products, the Iran nuclear agreement will be a complete disaster for them.

However, for the U.S. and Europe it might mean peace between Iran and NATO countries for at least 10 years.

However, it likely also would mean oil prices at or around $25 a barrel and a whole lot of folks like drillers and shale oil miners going out of business in the short and long run of this.

However, another way to look at this is that it will tend to keep the world from going bankrupt and falling into a somewhat irretrievable Great Depression (just as long as the prices stay this low).

However, then, no matter how well economically the world is doing, there might be a Great Depression simply caused by oil prices so high 50% to 75% of the world cannot eat with oil prices that high because one cannot farm or drive food to market with oil prices beyond a certain point.

This would be caused by all the oil drillers and shale oil producers out of business at that point.

So, the longer time oil stays low the more catastrophically potentially dangerous it is for the world economically in regard to nations staying viable without food riots when people can't afford food when oil rebounds (as it naturally would) when there are almost no drillers or shale oil producers left in business.

And then, people will be leary of putting money into developing oil drilling or shale oil at first, so the next oil prices drop might be 10 years away after that.

So, 1/2 the nations of the world might have lost their governments to food riots by then.

When markets are artificially manipulated by wartime situations, governments must find a way to keep governments viable when this happens. So, the United Nations needs to address this at some point so governments don't fall like meteorites and flame out when this happens (when it happens).

And the longer it takes to happen(10 years or more) the worse this is going to be for everyone.

The best prepared for this are going to be developed nations who have moved to solar and wind power and other renewables. The worst prepared are going to be the poorest nations whose governments might fall because of these problems.

Just as sure as the refugee problem exists now in Europe and the Middle East from war, this problem is just as real and coming also eventually.

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