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Hillary Clinton Clinches the Nomination. Will Bernie Sanders Fight On?
| New York Times | - |
Democrats
will vote in six states on Tuesday, just hours after Hillary Clinton
secured enough superdelegates, according to a survey by The Associated
Press, to make her the party's presumptive presidential nominee.
Hillary Clinton Clinches the Nomination. Will Bernie Sanders Fight On?
Voting in New Jersey and California
CreditSam Hodgson for The New York Times
Democrats will vote in six states on Tuesday, just hours after Hillary Clinton secured enough superdelegates, according to a survey by The Associated Press,
to make her the party’s presumptive presidential nominee. But the focus
will be on just one of those states: California, the nation’s most
populous state and a liberal stronghold, where Senator Bernie Sanders is
hoping to seize a victory to make the case for staying in the race
until the party’s convention in July.
The
question of the day is not whether Mrs. Clinton will declare victory,
but in what terms, and how she will begin to frame the general election
race against Donald J. Trump, the Republican Party’s presumptive
nominee.
But
there will also be something to watch on the Republican side, as Mr.
Trump is expected to hold a news conference in New York to mark the end
of primary season. He has been heavily criticized
— including by many in his own party — for his attacks on a federal
judge’s Mexican heritage, and he faces questions about how he will
respond.
Voting
will also take place on Tuesday in Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico,
North Dakota and South Dakota. Here are a few of the dynamics we’ll be
watching:
How will Clinton cross a historic barrier?
In
her speech Tuesday night, Mrs. Clinton will become the first woman to
claim victory in a major party’s presidential nominating fight. She has
intermittently emphasized the historic nature of her candidacy, and it
may work to her benefit to stress that theme amid Mr. Trump’s continuing
struggles with female voters.
But
Mrs. Clinton also has a broader choice to make, about how to position
herself in one of the highest-profile moments of her campaign: Will she
move to calm Sanders supporters and consolidate support on the left, or
reach out to moderates and Republicans who may be wary of Mr. Trump?
Will she go after Mr. Trump in hard language, or focus on sketching a
positive rationale for her own election? Her choices Tuesday night could
set the shape of the race between now and the conventions in July.
Snapshots From the Primary Campaign Trail
The days before primaries and caucuses are intense — and often
emotional — for voters and candidates alike. We’re capturing that drama.
Can Sanders make the case for fighting on?
The
slim path available to Mr. Sanders narrowed even further Monday evening
with the news report that Mrs. Clinton had crossed the 2,383-delegate
threshold through support from party leaders. In order to press forward,
Mr. Sanders is in dire need of an upset win in California. By taking
the nation’s most populous state, his supporters hope, Mr. Sanders could
claim a mandate to keep fighting all the way to the convention in
Philadelphia.
He
is likely to face intensifying pressure from Democrats — including the
White House — to get out of Mrs. Clinton’s way. But Mr. Sanders has
never been a creature of the Democratic Party.
His natural mode is defiance. As Mrs. Clinton aims to rally Democrats,
it is in Mr. Sanders’s power to make that process easy or acutely
uncomfortable. His reaction to Tuesday’s results may signal which path
he intends to take.
What does California mean to Clinton?
Mrs.
Clinton is favored to win the primary in New Jersey and has a narrower
lead over Mr. Sanders in California polls. She is poised to secure her
party’s nomination regardless of what happens in each state, but
sweeping both would lend her candidacy an especially formidable air at
the start of the campaign against Mr. Trump.
Capturing
California, one of the most racially diverse states, would hand Mrs.
Clinton a useful symbolic victory as she prepares to compete with a
Republican whose support has come overwhelmingly from whites.
Can Trump recover his footing?
Republican
concern about Mr. Trump is approaching a high: His last remaining
primary challengers dropped out of the race more than a month ago, but
the real estate developer has done little in that time to gird himself
for a contest with Mrs. Clinton.
Over
the last week, Mr. Trump has inflicted more damage to his candidacy
than Senator Ted Cruz or Gov. John R. Kasich ever did. He has struggled
to answer newly detailed and troubling allegations that his defunct
educational company, Trump University, committed fraud, and he has
repeatedly criticized a federal judge who is hearing a class-action
lawsuit against him, accusing the judge, who is of Mexican descent, of
having a conflict of interest.
It
will take a firm performance by Mr. Trump on the podium in Westchester
County on Tuesday night to reassure Republicans that he is up to the job
of fighting Mrs. Clinton. Another undisciplined and combative outing
could raise the party’s anxiety to the level of panic.
How quickly does Obama weigh in?
President
Obama has appeared eager, even impatient, to take part in the campaign,
and he has already gone after Mr. Trump repeatedly. But Mr. Obama has
been somewhat constrained so far by the Democratic primaries. While he
has been critical of Republicans, he has not yet made a full-throated
case for Mrs. Clinton as a better alternative.
The White House has indicated that may change this week,
once Mrs. Clinton has the Democratic nomination in hand. A presidential
endorsement would be seen by many Democrats as a signal to Mr. Sanders
that it’s time for him to leave the race. And Mr. Obama, who has long
been adept at belittling Mr. Trump, could be an effective advocate for
Mrs. Clinton as she seeks to energize the Democratic coalition and set
the terms of debate against an unpredictable opponent.
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