begin quote from:https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/06/world/europe/biden-nuclear-war-risk.html
Biden calls the ‘prospect of Armageddon’ the highest since the Cuban missile crisis.
Katie Rogers and
President Biden delivered a striking warning on Thursday night that recent threats from President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia could devolve into a nuclear conflict, telling supporters at a fund-raiser in New York City that the risk of atomic war had not been so high since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.
“We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis,” Mr. Biden told a crowd at the second of two fund-raisers he attended on Thursday evening.
“We are trying to figure out: What is Putin’s off ramp?” Mr. Biden said, adding: “Where does he find a way out? Where does he find himself where he does not only lose face but significant power?”
Mr. Biden’s references to Armageddon were highly unusual for any American president. Since the Cuban Missile Crisis, 60 years ago this month, occupants of the Oval Office have rarely spoken in such grim tones about the possible use of nuclear weapons, much less talked openly about “off ramps.”
Advertisement
The president’s warnings, delivered bluntly to a group of Democratic donors rather than in a more formal setting, came as analysts in Washington have been debating whether Mr. Putin might resort to tactical nuclear weapons to counter his mounting military losses in Ukraine.
The State of the War
- Russia’s Retreat: After significant gains in eastern cities like Lyman, Ukraine is pushing farther into Russian-held territory in the south, expanding its campaign as Moscow struggles to mount a response and hold the line. The Ukrainian victories came as President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia illegally annexed four regions where fighting is raging.
- Dugina Assassination: U.S. intelligence agencies believe parts of the Ukrainian government authorized the car bomb attack near Moscow in August that killed Daria Dugina, the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist. American officials said they were not aware of the plan ahead of time and that they had admonished Ukraine over it.
- Oil Supply Cuts: Saudi Arabia and Russia, acting as leaders of the OPEC Plus energy cartel, agreed to a large production cut in a bid to raise prices, countering efforts by the United States and Europe to constrain the oil revenue Moscow is using to pay for its war in Ukraine.
- Putin’s Nuclear Threats: For the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, top Russian leaders are making explicit nuclear threats and officials in Washington are gaming out scenarios should Mr. Putin decide to use a tactical nuclear weapon.
In an angry and fiery speech last week, Mr. Putin raised the specter of using nuclear weapons to hold on to his territorial gains, which Ukraine’s powerful counteroffensives have begun to erode. Mr. Putin said he would use “all available means” to defend Russian territory — which he has declared now includes four provinces of eastern Ukraine that Russia illegally annexed in recent days.
- Dig deeper into the moment.
The atomic bombs the United States dropped on Japan in 1945, Mr. Putin said in that speech, had “created a precedent.”
His remarks and others by top Russian leaders represent the first time since 1962 that Moscow officials have made explicit nuclear threats.
Officials in Washington have been gaming out scenarios in which Mr. Putin might decide to use a tactical nuclear weapon to make up for the failings of Russian troops in Ukraine. In late February, Mr. Putin called for his nuclear forces to go on alert, but there has been no evidence that they did so.
Advertisement
Contrary to Mr. Biden’s comparison, American officials say they do not believe this moment is as fraught as the Cuban Missile Crisis, during which Mr. Kennedy declared a quarantine of Cuba to stop the delivery of nuclear weapons to the island. The chances of Mr. Putin using an atomic weapon remain low, they have said.
But they are clearly worried that Russian military doctrine treats tactical weapons as a potential element of conflict between ground forces. And it was that doctrine that Mr. Biden indicated he is most concerned about, because of the chances of rapid escalation.
Tactical weapons come in many sizes and varieties, most with a small fraction of the destructive power of the bombs the United States dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. But they are hard to use and are difficult to control. On Thursday, Mr. Biden said he did not think it would be possible for Russia to use a tactical weapon and “not end up with Armageddon.”
“We’ve got a guy I know fairly well,” Mr. Biden said of Mr. Putin at the fund-raiser. “He’s not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons because his military is you might say significantly underperforming.”
In late September, Mr. Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said that any nuclear weapon use would result in “catastrophic consequences” for Russia, adding that in private communications with Moscow, the United States had “spelled out” how America and the world would react.
Katie Rogers is a White House correspondent, covering life in the Biden administration, Washington culture and domestic policy. She joined The Times in 2014. @katierogers
David E. Sanger is a White House and national security correspondent. In a 38-year reporting career for The Times, he has been on three teams that have won Pulitzer Prizes, most recently in 2017 for international reporting. His newest book is “The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage and Fear in the Cyber Age.” @SangerNYT • Facebook
Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Ukrainian police have found the bodies of 534 civilians and evidence of torture in recaptured territory.
Critics say Russia’s military was unprepared for war.
Two Russians who braved miles of open sea arrive on an Alaskan island and request asylum.
U.N.’s nuclear agency does not recognize Russia’s claim to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
Swedish investigators say the evidence in pipeline leaks points to sabotage.
Seven civilians are killed in Russian missile strike in Zaporizhzhia, local authorities say.
Better Understand the Russia-Ukraine War
History: Here’s what to know about Russia and Ukraine’s relationship and the causes behind the conflict.
On the Ground: Russian and Ukrainian forces are using a bevy of weapons as a deadly war of attrition grinds on in eastern Ukraine.
Outside Pressures: Governments, sports organizations and businesses are taking steps to punish Russia. Here is a list of companies that have pulled out of the country.
Updates: To receive the latest updates in your inbox, sign up here. The Times has also launched a Telegram channel to make its journalism more accessible around the world.
How We Verify Our Reporting
Our team of visual journalists analyzes satellite images, photographs, videos and radio transmissions to independently confirm troop movements and other details.
We monitor and authenticate reports on social media, corroborating these with eyewitness accounts and interviews. Read more about our reporting efforts.
No comments:
Post a Comment