"How ISIS is exploiting the economics of Syria's civil war". Vox Media.
How ISIS is exploiting the economics of Syria's civil war
So many factors contributed to the catastrophe that is ISIS
— the Sunni extremist group that has seized swathes of first Syria and
now Iraq — that it can be difficult to hold them all together at once.
There was the political failure of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri
al-Maliki's government that left the state weak in the Sunni north. The
Iraqi-demanded American withdrawal that left the country without a
sufficiently viable military. The Iraqi Baathist elements urging along
ISIS in Iraq. The Gulf states that funded extremist groups in Syria that
have since metastasized out of control. The extremism itself and its
own complex roots. And of course the Syrian civil war that has been
ISIS's recruitment center and staging ground.
But there may be another major factor here: the economics of Syria's civil war, which ISIS appears to have actively and adroitly exploited in ways that have helped along its rise. The New York Times' Thanassis Cambanis profiled ISIS's surprisingly cunning economic strategy; I've added emphasis to one of the most stunning facts about this terrorist group:
There is reason to be skeptical that ISIS can really re-start eastern Syria or northern Iraq's oil fields, much less move and sell the oil, but the fact that the group has this ambition at all is telling. As the chaos of Syria's war breaks apart the state and its ability to function economically, ISIS is moving in to replace the state and its tax collectors, then using that revenue to launch its invasion of northern Iraq, which just so happens to be rich in oil itself.
There's more. ISIS, Cambanis reports, takes a cut of humanitarian and commercial operations in areas under its control. It confiscates money and property from Christians and from Muslims it doesn't like.
This money goes a long way: it pays better salaries than moderate Syrian rebels or the Syrian and Iraqi professional militaries, both of which have suffered mass desertions. ISIS also appears to enjoy better internal cohesion than any of its state or non-state enemies, at least for the moment. It rules over an area the size of Belgium.
Aaron Zelin, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, found this 2006 map produced by ISIS, showing the areas it hoped to control and overlapping oil sources. The correctness of the map aside, it shows that the group has been thinking about the economics of its war and how to self-fund:
Again, there is much more to ISIS and its rise than economics. But at some point armed movements, especially ones that seek to control country-sized stretches of territory, require a self-sustaining cash-flow to function. That ISIS appears to have been so successful at this says a lot about their strategic foresight, their long-term ambitions, and their ability to outlast their opponents.
ISIS has begun selling electricity back to the syrian government
But there may be another major factor here: the economics of Syria's civil war, which ISIS appears to have actively and adroitly exploited in ways that have helped along its rise. The New York Times' Thanassis Cambanis profiled ISIS's surprisingly cunning economic strategy; I've added emphasis to one of the most stunning facts about this terrorist group:
But the group is not only following a stone-age script. It also rapidly establishes control of local resources and uses them to extend and strengthen its grip.Soak that in: a terrorist group that actively seeks the Syrian government's destruction, and is so extreme that al-Qaeda rejected it, has become so powerful that the Syrian government has to buy electricity from them.
It has taken over oil fields in eastern Syria, for example, and according to several rebel commanders and aid workers, has resumed pumping. It has also secured revenue by selling electricity to the government from captured power plants. In Iraq on Wednesday, the militants seized control of Baiji, the site of Iraq's largest oil refinery and power plant.
There is reason to be skeptical that ISIS can really re-start eastern Syria or northern Iraq's oil fields, much less move and sell the oil, but the fact that the group has this ambition at all is telling. As the chaos of Syria's war breaks apart the state and its ability to function economically, ISIS is moving in to replace the state and its tax collectors, then using that revenue to launch its invasion of northern Iraq, which just so happens to be rich in oil itself.
There's more. ISIS, Cambanis reports, takes a cut of humanitarian and commercial operations in areas under its control. It confiscates money and property from Christians and from Muslims it doesn't like.
This money goes a long way: it pays better salaries than moderate Syrian rebels or the Syrian and Iraqi professional militaries, both of which have suffered mass desertions. ISIS also appears to enjoy better internal cohesion than any of its state or non-state enemies, at least for the moment. It rules over an area the size of Belgium.
Aaron Zelin, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, found this 2006 map produced by ISIS, showing the areas it hoped to control and overlapping oil sources. The correctness of the map aside, it shows that the group has been thinking about the economics of its war and how to self-fund:
Again, there is much more to ISIS and its rise than economics. But at some point armed movements, especially ones that seek to control country-sized stretches of territory, require a self-sustaining cash-flow to function. That ISIS appears to have been so successful at this says a lot about their strategic foresight, their long-term ambitions, and their ability to outlast their opponents.
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"How ISIS is exploiting the economics of Syria's civil war". Vox Media.
So, basically this is how I think this all works. Assad realized he couldn't defeat ISIS so he made a deal with ISIS. However, to see how ISIS view Assad would be tantamount to the "Devil". Also, from Assad's point of view ISIS (ISIL) would also be the devil. So, to make this very straightforward both Assad and ISIL made a deal with the Devil in order to make their government's work financially.
However, to be completely cynical this is just how every government works on earth to a greater or lesser degree as well.
However, in the middle east we have a history of people making deals so their families, their businesses, and their livelihoods all "Stayed alive" and sometimes prospered. IF you don't keep your family or your group of families with a similar religious identity alive then maybe you and your family won't be alive either.
So, this is how people have survived for thousands of years already. Are you surprised that democracy doesn't work well under these conditions?
So, I wonder how Iran and Iraq feel about the deals Assad has made with the Devil. And I wonder how Russia and Iran feel about the deals with the devil that Assad has made.
I kind of know how Sunnis likely feel about ISIL. ISIL might be something like an assassin taking revenge for the thousands of Sunnis, tortured and killed so far in Syria. This likely would be how in general Sunnis feel about ISIL like an assassin one or all of them hired to take revenge for the genocide of Sunnis in Syria. The middle eastern way has always been (throughout history) "an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth and a life for a life." This is how it has always been done.
To a westerner he or she might look at this and think, "IF everyone did that no one would be left alive on earth!" Yes. That's what westerners sort of think about that. But they are not in the middle east right now.
Also, just in case you missed the whole point of the article this is it
repeat quote from above:
Soak that in: a terrorist group that actively seeks the Syrian government's destruction, and is so extreme that al-Qaeda rejected it, has become so powerful that the Syrian government has to buy electricity from them.
end repeat quote from above.
And I might add to this quote "The Syrian government has to buy electricity from them to survive as a government."
3 comments:
i never believed that it was sunni (rebels) VS syiah(assad) in syria.
it was actually Assad VS intruders & mercenaries (al-qaeda)- sponsored by US, who killed the civillians, posted it youtube and blame it all on assad. they said "assad killed these women, childrens because they are sunnis." they tried to sell this bloodfest as shia vs sunni war. and they have succeed.
this explains a lot..
so basically assad is GOOD.
rebels; some good some evil.
ISIS...now..ISIS is the genuine GOOD GUYS here. they split with al-qaeda (which is US born and sponsored-dont say you dont know that) and ISIS also faced resistance from FSA. (-because they are also terrorists funded by US to weaken Syria)
so, as the good guys...Assad and ISIS wont have problems working with each other.
we might see assad surrendering his powers to abu bakr in a few weeks, if not months.
For people in the U.S. now most are pretty confused by all this because they don't live in the Middle East. Even someone like myself because I'm from another culture I have difficulty understanding it all too.
However, I think if some westerners don't at least try to understand what is going on we will once again make the same mistakes we made in Iraq, Afghanistan and Viet Nam. OR we might even make worse ones if we don't understand enough about what is actually happening in the middle east.
I think trust is the biggest problem in the middle east because of everyone's bad experiences throughout the 20th and 21st centuries so far with each other and other countries both in the Middle East and beyond.
Though people in Europe and the U.S. are well intentioned they obviously don't really understand what is really happening or where all this is going.
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