To get a sense of how robust demand is for U.S. Treasuries, consider
that China has reduced its holdings by about $180 billion and the market
barely reacted.
Benchmark 10-year yields fell 0.6 percentage point even though the
largest foreign holder of U.S. debt pared its stake between March 2014
and May of this year, based on the most recent data available from the
Treasury Department. That’s not the doomsday scenario portrayed by those
who said the size of the holdings -- which peaked at $1.65 trillion in
2014 -- would leave the U.S. vulnerable to China’s whims.
Instead, other sources of demand are filling the void. Regulations
designed to prevent another financial crisis have caused banks and
similar firms to stockpile highly rated assets. Also, mutual funds have
been scooping up government debt, flush with cash from savers who are
wary of stocks and want an alternative to bank deposits that pay almost
nothing. It all adds up to a market in fine fettle as the Federal
Reserve moves closer to raising interest rates as soon as next month.
“China may be stepping away, but there is such a deep and broad buyer
base for Treasuries, particularly when you have times of uncertainty,”
Brandon Swensen, the co-head of U.S. fixed-income at RBC Global Asset
Management, which oversees $35 billion, said from Minneapolis.
Voracious Appetite
America has relied on foreign buyers as
the Treasury market swelled to $12.7 trillion in order to finance
stimulus that helped pull the economy out of recession and bail out the
banking system. Overseas investors and official institutions hold $6.13
trillion of Treasuries, up from about $2 trillion in 2006, government
data show.
China was a particularly voracious participant, boosting its holdings
from less than $350 billion as its economy boomed and the nation bought
dollars to keep the yuan from soaring.
Now, the Asian nation is stepping back as it raises money to support
flagging growth and a crumbling stock market, and allows its currency to
trade more freely. The latest update of Treasury data and estimates by
strategists suggest that China controls $1.47 trillion of Treasuries.
That includes about $200 billion held through Belgium, which Nomura
Holdings Inc. says is home to Chinese custodial accounts.
The 10-year Treasury note yield fell 0.02 percentage point last week
to 2.16 percent. That’s down from 2.72 percent in March 2014.
Source of Vulnerability
Politicians in both the Republican
and Democratic parties have raised concern that the amount of U.S.
sovereign debt held by China creates an inherent risk.
A super-political action committee, the Americans for Prosperity
Foundation, run by Republican billionaire David Koch, joined with the
advocacy group Citizens Against Government Waste to fund television
advertisements during the 2012 presidential campaign that portrayed
China’s ownership of Treasuries as a threat to U.S. independence.
And in 2007, Democrat Hillary Clinton, then a Senator from New York,
said in a letter to then Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and then Fed
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke that foreign ownership of U.S. debt was a
“source of great vulnerability.” The economy “can too easily be held
hostage to the economic decisions being made in Beijing, Shanghai and
Tokyo,” she said.
Beware Sensationalism
The Treasury market overcame turbulence
sparked by China in early 2009, just as the U.S. was ramping up
borrowing and as the Fed was about to expand the supply of dollars as
part of its stimulus efforts. At that time, then Chinese Premier Wen
Jiabao said his country was “worried” about its investment in U.S. debt
and wanted assurances the value of its holdings would be protected.
China’s pullback from U.S. securities is “far less ominous for the
prospects for the Treasury market than some sensationalists might
think,” said Ian Lyngen, a government bond strategist at CRT Capital
Group LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. “It’s the macro and policy stories
that give you the big overall level of rates, it’s not flows.”
U.S. commercial banks have increased their stakes in Treasuries and
debt from federal agencies by almost $300 billion since March 2014 to
over $2.1 trillion, Fed data show.
The category of buyers at Treasury auctions classified as indirect
bidders, which include foreign investors and mutual funds, won a record
55 percent of the $1.2 trillion of notes and bonds sold this year, up
from 43 percent in 2014.
Funds bought 42 percent of the debt, up from 35 percent last year,
while overseas investors increased their allotment to 19 percent from 16
percent, the data show.
Global Disinflation
Slowing growth in China, where domestic debt is
swelling and stock markets are becoming more volatile, is causing the
kind of turmoil that fuels investor demand for safe assets such as
Treasuries.
It may also slow the pace of inflation, according to William
O’Donnell, head U.S. government bond strategist at RBS Securities Inc.
in Stamford, Connecticut.
“Disinflation or deflation could become more embedded globally,” said
O’Donnell, whose firm is one of the 22 primary dealers that trade with
the Fed and are obligated to bid at Treasury auctions.
Slower inflation helps preserve the value of the fixed payments on bonds.
Yields that are higher than most of the developed world are another
lure for investors. Treasury 10-year notes yield about 1.5 percentage
points more than German bunds of similar maturity, and the spread
reached 1.9 percentage points earlier this year, the most since 1989. As
recently as 2012, there was no difference.
‘Very Attractive’
Unlike “China’s central bank, global
investors want to buy,” said Toshifumi Sugimoto, the Tokyo-based chief
investment officer at Capital Asset Management Co., which has $300
million in assets. “Investors like pension funds or life insurance
companies or institutional investors, they want a higher yield with a
high rating. U.S. Treasuries are very attractive now.”
That depth of demand may stand the market in good stead as the Fed moves closer to raising interest rates.
“I don’t see an egregious back-up” in yields happening, said Gemma
Wright-Casparius, who manages about $50 billion in Treasuries at Valley
Forge, Pennsylvania-based Vanguard Group Inc. “It’s a deep liquid
market, it’s a safe haven and it’s a high-yielding asset right now.”
end qutoe from:
To get a
sense of how robust demand is for U.S. Treasuries, consider that China
has reduced its holdings by about $180 billion and the market barely
reacted. Benchmark 10-year yields fell 0.6 percentage point even though
the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt pared its stake between March
2014 and May of this year, based on the most recent data available from
the Treasury Department. Also, mutual funds have been scooping up
government debt, flush with cash from savers who are wary of stocks and
want an alternative to bank deposits that pay almost nothing.
Note: However, it might be important to note that China Selling 180 billion dollars in U.S. Treasuries could also be viewed as an act of economic warfare against the U.S. much like the Cyber Attacks against the U.S. could also be viewed as acts of War.
However, in a world where China, Russia and the U.S. could blow up the whole world and everything upon it with nuclear weapons something like 12 to 20 or more times over, this is "normal" for conditions like this where real warfare can never happen without completely ending the existence of earth and all upon it.(12 to 20 times over). In other words they could destroy likely the planet (each country about 6 or 7 times each without any other country being involved at all in any way or having any knowledge of it at all. This is something to think about. Because it is the reality we live with every day since the 1950s.
No comments:
Post a Comment