ROME — Europe spent months trying to crush Alexis Tsipras. But now that Greece’s leftist prime minister has called a snap election and is seeking a mandate for the tough new bailout program he negotiated with his country’s creditors, Europe, oddly enough, may find itself invested in his success.
Greece
never fails to surprise, and Mr. Tsipras’s turbulent eight-month tenure
has proved he is rarely predictable. But the man many European leaders
once regarded as a populist wrecking ball is now presenting himself as a
figure who can deliver pragmatism and stability — and carry out the
sort of austerity program he once inveighed angrily against.
“I’m
sure that he has talked to European leaders, and they are O.K. with
what he is doing now,” said Harry Papasotiriou, a professor of
international relations at Panteion University in Athens, adding that
Mr. Tsipras was staking his political life on a bailout deal that
includes the kind of taxes and pension cuts he once opposed. “He’s
taking ownership of it.”
The
latest twist by Mr. Tsipras was met with cautious optimism on Friday by
some European commentators even as his surprise move again tossed
Greece into political turmoil. On Friday, a faction of hard-line
leftists split from Mr. Tsipras’s Syriza party and formed a new party, vowing to resist austerity and possibly even lead Greece out of the eurozone.
At
the same time, analysts cautioned that the new election, and the
continuing political maneuverings in Athens, could further complicate
and slow implementation of the 86 billion euro bailout program, worth
about $98 billion at Friday’s exchange rate, signed by Mr. Tsipras in
July. An initial progress review by creditors, scheduled for October,
may be delayed, which would delay discussions between Greece and its
lenders over possible restructuring of the country’s crippling sovereign
debt.
Some
economists also warned that the uncertainty surrounding the elections,
including the possibility that the proposed Sept. 20 election could be
pushed back, could revive the sort of public anxiety that earlier this
year destabilized the broader economy and spurred a run on Greek banks.
“That element I find to be much more risky,” said Marcel Fratzscher, president of the German Institute of Economic Research in Berlin. “It creates much more uncertainty.”
Across
Europe, some commentators and European officials framed Mr. Tsipras’s
election gambit as a positive step to improve the odds that the bailout
deal will be given a public mandate. Annika Breidthardt, a European
Commission spokeswoman, said the commission “respects the decision” by
Mr. Tsipras to call the vote and “considers it important” that the
bailout package has public support.
In a message on Twitter,
Martin Selmayr, the chief of staff for Jean-Claude Juncker, the
European Commission president, said “swift elections” could “broaden
support” for the deal that Mr. Tsipras signed last month.
Some
commentators described the Greek vote as a potentially important step
for broader political stability and unity in Europe. Writing in Corriere della Sera,
a leading Italian newspaper, Aldo Cazzullo called on European leaders
to push for greater political integration and praised Mr. Tsipras for
tossing off his populist trappings and presenting himself as a leader
able “to undertake a long road to renewal which, for all its
difficulties, has shown itself to be the only path possible.”
In
Germany, where disgust with Mr. Tsipras is palpable, newspapers quoted
government sources as saying that Chancellor Angela Merkel hoped the
election could produce a government capable of bringing stability to
Greece. Stefan Kornelius, a columnist for Süddeutsche Zeitung, a Munich newspaper, described Mr. Tsipras as “a realist and a pragmatist” who was now more aligned with Ms. Merkel’s agenda.
Yet
mistrust for Mr. Tsipras is deep among German officials, and some
lawmakers were suspicious that the Greek leader might use a new election
to revoke the bailout program he signed last month. “Mr. Tsipras must
not be allowed to deviate from the path of reform with such a maneuver,”
Manfred Weber, the head of the center-right European People’s Party,
told the tabloid Bild.
Few
analysts predicted that the deep rifts between Mr. Tsipras and other
European leaders would be suddenly be resolved, especially in Germany.
But many agreed that Mr. Tsipras was not likely to go anywhere, given
his continued popularity, despite his policy reversals. If European
leaders want to see Greece truly put economic structural reforms into
effect, Mr. Tsipras may now have the best chance of getting anything
done, some analysts say.
“What Europe is interested in is political stability in Greece,” said Christian Odendahl, chief economist for the Center for European Reform
in London. He said that while Europe was “not that invested” in a
Tsipras election victory, dealing with him could be inevitable and his
promise to carry out the bailout could be welcomed even by his erstwhile
enemies.
In
Athens, political analysts note that Mr. Tsipras, at the moment, has no
political rival capable of challenging him and that his party, Syriza,
is almost certain to finish first in the election, with the question
being by what margin. Those who left Syriza on Friday morning to form
the Popular Unity Party are 25 lawmakers led by a former energy
minister, Panagiotis Lafazanis. But analysts are skeptical that their
anti-euro message will resonate with voters.
Despite
his policy reversals, Mr. Tsipras has retained his popularity by moving
slowly to the political center after waging a defiant, unsuccessful
fight to win Greece a better deal. Indeed, the surreal quality of recent
Greek politics is hard to overstate.
In January, Mr. Tsipras took power
as a fiery, anti-austerity populist vowing to change Europe. In early
July, unable to make headway in debt talks, Mr. Tsipras unexpectedly
called a national referendum asking whether voters would accept terms
put forward by lenders. He defiantly implored citizens to vote no, which
they did in big numbers.
But
European creditors did not budge, and only days later Mr. Tsipras
reversed course and soon signed the country’s third bailout package
despite previously vowing not to do so. He only managed to pass the
program through Parliament with the help of opposition parties, as
hard-liners in Syriza refused to support it, setting the stage for the
split and the call for an election.
The
head-spinning chronology has left many Greeks weary of political
upheaval, if still seeming to trust Mr. Tsipras. In Athens, Maria
Stasinopoulou, 22, an engineering student, endorsed the snap election,
arguing that Mr. Tsipras had no other alternative. “It’s not the best
thing for the country right now, but he has to deal with Syriza before
he can govern,” she said, alluding to the party’s insurgents.
“Of
course, I’m disappointed with Tsipras, but he did what could, and no
one could have done more,” she added. “I think he deserves another
chance. He’s the only realistic, noncorrupt politician in Greece right
now.”
But
Angelos Handris, 55, who manages a street kiosk near central Athens,
bemoaned the election as “the last thing we need,” and sharply
criticized Syriza. “They promised the world, they messed up, they closed
the banks, and now they want to drag us to elections,” said Mr.
Handris, a supporter of the conservative New Democracy Party.
Mr.
Tsipras has submitted his resignation to Greece’s president, who will
appoint an interim prime minister to oversee a caretaker government
until the election. This means that for the third time in eight months,
Greece will hold a national vote. Mr. Tsipras won the first two and is
counting on a third.
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