Saturday, August 22, 2015

Positioning oneself for a Downturn

Though it is unknown exactly what is going to happen financially worldwide, there are many clues from China, that at least for China and Asia in general, what is happening in Asia is not good.

China plays by different rules than the rest of the world which makes all this more difficult that figuring out what would happen in other countries. However, what will happen in other Asian countries surrounding China is much more predictable.

So, watching what countries like Japan and South Korea do will help you to better understand the realities of what is actually going on in China.

Though everything is coming up roses for the U.S. and to some degree the European Union as well, obviously there is going to be blowback from everything Asian upon the rest of the world.

Poorer people not invested are presently benefitting from extremely low oil prices. But, because these oil prices are nation driven rather than market driven it is likely that really bad consequences for these extremely low oil prices will arrive within 5 years. If Oil prices were actually market driven we likely wouldn't face such and extreme event that could last up to 5 years or more and bankrupt some countries in the meantime. However, the better developed countries are prepared for this fairly expected event the less smaller less developed countries might be forced into anarchy and bankruptcy by oil prices just too high for them to survive. As I have said before the more every country is invested in Solar, Wind and Water power and other renewable energy sources, the less this eventual catastrophically high oil prices for a long time will affect them.

On an individual basis, investors around the world should know that being into cash right now (enough cash to survive the next year or more) is very important as well as letting their stocks ride until they come up again (if these are good long term trending stocks).

Though the U.S. looks good for the future, the rest of the world (except Europe) is really going to go through it at least in the short run.

It is difficult to say if the trouble in the U.S. stock market is over or not because of what is happening in the rest of the world. Part of the reason for this is most blue chip dividend bearing stocks are international stocks in where their profit comes from. So, When China drops these stocks are going to be affected too. So, in good world times Blue chips are the best to be in but in bad times often you just have to ride it out.

So now is a good time to have all your real estate paid off if possible with no loans outstanding other than business loans and plenty of cash in savings or other safer instruments at this time. The less personal debt you have right now the better off you will be in both the short and the long run (outside of business debt).

For the average person not invested, however, because of the price of gas and diesel this might be a good time to travel if possible while the price of gas is affordable. It might stay this affordable for up to 5 to 10 years because of what Russia and Saudi Arabia are doing playing Oil Chicken right now.

However, there are just too many unknowns to predict where we will be in 5 to 10 years worldwide.

These times remind me a lot of when I studied the 1930s where everything was changing an unpredictable.

No comments: