When the U.S. and NATO countries sanctioned Russia and Iran, Russia learned from that. Now Russia is economically sanctioning Turkey and also driving Turkmen and bombing Turkmen and women in Syria. So, at the very least a Proxy war against Turkey has begun by Russia against Turkey in Syria. So, in this context Turkey's shootdown of a Russian plane was because of hundreds or thousands of Turkish people being killed (mostly civilians) by Russians in Syria.
Whether this becomes an all out hot war is anyone's guess. However, NATO likely will not go against Russia because Turkey is doing things (like killing Kurds) that NATO and the U.S. cannot support. So, it is more likely Turkey is going to be on it's own to some degree against Russia.
The main reason for this is: NATO and the U.S. nations do not want a nuclear war with Russia and Nato nations cannot support what Turkey is doing supporting ISIS and fighting with Kurds either at this point. So, Turkey cannot have it both ways. You cannot play both ends against the middle and expect allies to help you if you don't share their values as allies.
So, Turkey is in a very bad position right now. IF Turkey had nuclear weapons they likely might use them against Russia and Iran at this point because they are so angry.
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