begin quote from:
Yes, Donald Trump could win
| Chicago Tribune | - |
That
sentiment is driven by a Republican convention last week in Cleveland
that showcased not only Donald Trump's continued inability to stick to
any sort of message but also the deep fissures his nomination has
created within the Republican establishment.
Commentary:
Yes, Donald Trump could win
Chris CillizzaThe Washington Post
That sentiment is driven by a Republican convention last week in Cleveland that showcased not only Donald Trump's continued inability to stick to any sort of message but also the deep fissures his nomination has created within the Republican establishment.
And, all of that is true. It's also true that the electoral map clearly favors Clinton and that Trump is on the wrong side of the massive demographic changes sweeping the country. (Trump's numbers among Hispanics, for example, are horrendously bad.)
But, amid all of that empirical evidence, it's important to remember that we may be through the looking glass, politically speaking. Meaning that there are bits of evidence everywhere — from Trump's remarkable run to the Republican nomination to the Brexit vote — that suggest that not only the old way of doing things but also the old way of measuring successes and failures is no longer operative.
The truth is Trump shouldn't even be here. He started his campaign 13 months ago as an asterisk in the polls. He rose on a message that was seen as a nonstarter — the idea of building a wall and making Mexico pay for it. He insulted and bullied his way through the primaries. When the terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino happened, he proposed a temporary ban on Muslims and went up rather than down in the polls. When people started voting, he kept winning — never, really, wavering from his core message that most people are dumb and he is smart.
That Trump won — and did so in such convincing fashion is a telling indication that things, at least in the Republican Party, have fundamentally changed. Trump zigged every time everyone else zagged. And it worked.
The coverage of the general election — and the Republican convention in particular — highlighted Trump's problems: the plagiarism of his wife, Melania's, speech, Ted Cruz's apostasy and the dark vision of American the nominee presented in his acceptance speech. All of which were bad.
Trump's problems are, unquestionably, legion. Yet, here we are. Two new national polls out Monday either put him ahead of Clinton by three points or tied with the presumptive Democratic nominee. And, it's not just those two surveys. The broad trend in polling suggests a tightening contest.
And, 538's Nate Silver latest "nowcast" — what would happen if the election were held today — gives Trump an edge as of today.
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