Friday, March 20, 2020

California Governor: "We project that roughly 56% of our state's population -- 25.5 million people -- will be infected with the virus over an eight-week period,"

"We project that roughly 56% of our state's population -- 25.5 million people -- will be infected with the virus over an eight-week period," he said in a Wednesday letter to Trump asking him to send the USNS Mercy Hospital Ship to the port of Los Angeles for use through September 1.

When I went and checked online it said that 39,937,489 is the 2020 population of California. 

However, let's just go with 25.5 million people like he said is 56% of the population. So, I'm not sure what total he is going with.

So, 25.5 million infected in 8 weeks means 80% of that or 20,400,000 should not get sick at all but just be carriers.

Then 20% of 25.5 million would get sick. So, then 5,100,000 people or 20% of that number would get sick.

Of that 2% or more of those people would then die. Now this is where it gets really really weird because this would mean that
510,000 Californians are going to be dead in about 8 to 10 weeks. This is unthinkable and crazy for any state.

The worst hit state right now is New York
is about 20 million or 1/2 the population of California. If we took 56% of this it would be
11,200,000 would get coronavirus on their own timetable (which could be different than California's)
80% of these would not get sick and just be carriers which would be 8,960,000 people just carriers.
then 20% would get sick which is 2,240,000.

Then 2% or more would die which would be 224,000 or about 1/2 of the deaths of California because it is about 1/2 the population of California in New York.

Let's do the same with Washington State. The population of Washington state is 

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7.80 million. So, 56% of the state of Washington is 4,368,000. Then 80% of that is 3,494,400 people who would be carriers but not get sick.
20% would get sick which would be 873,600 people.
Then the 2% of the people who would die theoretically would be 87,360 just for Washington state.

But, the timing of all this is going to be different for each state this is clear because their peaks will be at different times depending upon many different variables.

However, if all this is in the ball park at some point 87,360 approximately will die of coronavirus in Washington state
                  224,000 would die in New York state                          And in California
                   510,000 would die.

which might mean that
                    

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(87 360 + 224 000) + 510 000 =
  people might die of coronavirus in just
California, Washington and New York.
If you realize this is around how many people died in World War II that were civilians and soldiers that were Americans just imagine if this ratio extends to all the states!    Because these are only 3 states out of 50!

So, when people talk like Angela Merkel President of Germany that she hasn't seen a problem as bad as this since world war II it might be important to listen! 

Because death wise the way this is moving it could be 10 times worse than the numbers America lost in World War II. 

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