Syria and Turkey

What is happening now in Turkey is also both directly and indirectly connected to what is happening in Syria. It reminds me a lot of the Cold War when psychological warfare like is going on in Turkey was happening often in many countries at once. Likely the grievances of the people in Turkey are genuine but it must be understood that some of the more violent Demonstrators and activists there are not Turkish and are outside agitators that likely come from other areas of the world as well.

The Syrian problem is starting to cause havoc throughout the middle east. Egypt has cut off all diplomatic relations with Syria now ever since the U.S. said it was sending weapons into the Syrian rebels. Putin is chastising Obama for sending weapons to people who eat human flesh which reminds one of previous Soviet psychological warfare statements in situations since the late 1940s. It is obvious that really awful things from eating opponents organs to rape of women and children is taking place likely from some on both sides. Bestiality has taken the place of common decency like it often does in intractable wars like this one. Problems are being created throughout the middle east by Iranian and Russian support of this war.

So, the effect of the Syrian conflict is the possible destabilization of all countries in the middle east. Lebanon has also been drawn into this problem by Hezbollah going into Syria to attack Sunni Rebels. This problem will crush the Sunni Rebels unless the U.S. is very quick with weapons and logistics. If the U.S. isn't fast enough there will be no rebel armies left to arm. Because the Hezbollah army by itself is larger than the whole Lebanese Army which is something most people don't understand around the world.

But, to make even more sense of this the real reason Hezbollah is going into Syria is to harden their troops so they can be veterans when they go into Israel next. At that point likely this war will become nuclear and it is possible that both Lebanon, Syria and Iran might get nuked by Israel if Hezbollah attacks Israel with enough missiles and troops. So, if an when Hezbollah attacks Israel or other Sunni nations it will be interesting to see what happens then.

Turkey is being destabilized because it is sheltering the most Syrian refugees. Most Syrian Refugees are Sunni so it is in Iran's interests to destabilize Turkey the most along with Assad wanting to destabilize Turkey as well. Dozens of Syrian officers are also defecting because they could be convicted of war crimes now that the U.S. and most of Europe have evidence of Chemical weapons being used. So, those officers would defect now to protect themselves and their families. So likely there will be many more defections from Assad's Syrian army soon because of war crimes trials for them in the near and distant future convened likely in Europe or Cairo or Turkey.

IF Turkey becomes the next country to experience Arab Spring this could be very difficult. Basically, what is happening in Turkey is that Presidents up until Erdogan were more secular and less religious. However, Erdogan is Sunni Religious and appears to be trying to establish Sharia law there and the secular masses are rebelling against this more governmental religious stance. So Turkey could go the way of Egypt which would be another mess in the middle east for the world to deal with.

Assad seems assured for now of continuing to stay in power since the Hezbollah Army started attacking Sunni Rebels but with the entrance of the U.S., Britain and France on the scene likely arming Sunni Rebels now and starting a possible no-fly zone there almost anything is possible to happen throughout the region in the summer and throughout the rest of the year there.