The Consequences of Syria

"The consequences of not going into Syria now are greater than the consequences of going into Syria now"

I heard John Kerry say something like this today. And if we are talking about the whole world in relation to this the answer is probably yes to this statement. That it is true.

But, if we narrow the question to being, "Are the consequences both short and long term good for the U.S. and Europe" this becomes a completely different question. Because all the variables are unknown for what Russia and Iran and Hezbollah will do in the short or long term.

What is likely is that in the short term Russia will do nothing because after all they understand the concept of order and I don't think they like Assad being crazy enough to gas his people anyway because this could lead to Chechens in Chechnya deciding to use chemical weapons on Russians and worse. So, their point of view likely isn't too far from ours in the U.S. in regard to this. However, what may happen is they will sell many more arms to Syria after this. After all, they are making about 20 to 50 billion a year there with their present business agreements with Syria in supplying them with weapons and other things. So, Russia is an entrepreneur selling to Syria that which Syria thinks it needs, both weapons and other things.

But, Hezbollah might do almost anything you and I could imagine and beyond in response to a U.S. cruise missile attack on Syria and the Same for Iran. So, in the short term it is Iran and Hezbollah and Assad's forces that the U.S. and Europe need to watch out for. And of course genocide of Sunni people with Chemical weapons and cluster bombs might be their first response to a U.S. attack which is why so many people are leaving Syria right now on Both sides. Syrian Army personnel (on both sides) are sending their families out of Syria now because of all the unknowns now.

The Syrian Electronic Army recently attacked the New York Times via the Internet and has since attacked many other institutions in the U.S. which can be quite expensive. I think the U.S. and Europe likely should expect more Internet attacks in their countries.

This thing could easily go sideways but just remember Kosovo with President Clinton. The U.S. had to bomb for 78 days straight to stop the fighting and to bring everyone to the peace table then and this could become something like this again in Syria to bring a more permanent end to the conflict there. But likely if this happened it would be a month or so down the line or more.

However, in this case there is no one side that the U.S. would like to see in power in Syria. So, for the present this is a little difficult after watching what happened then and now in Libya and the loss of our Ambassador there long after Gaddafi was gone.
 

NATO bombing of Yugoslavia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_bombing_of_Yugoslavia‎

Date, March 24, 1999 – June 10, 1999 (78 days) .... The 1999 bombings led to the withdrawal of Yugoslav forces from Kosovo, the establishment of UNMIK, ...