Wednesday, June 18, 2014

What should Obama do about Iraq?

The problem is this isn't 2003 and we are not fighting Saddam Hussein. But, what I find striking about Al-Baghdadi is he is like a Saddam Hussein clone in many many ways. This is why Iran doesn't want him ruling Iraq but many Sunnis might.

There are no hard targets for the U.S. to hit. They have no infrastucture in place. They move and they steal just like the Mongols Conquering China and Mongolia. So, they have no infrastucture to bomb or send missiles into. They do have weapons and mobility so it is possible to use drones to blow up humvees or four wheel drive trucks one at a time but that would be about it. So, it isn't worth a 1 million dollar cruise missile to blow up a humvee built in the U.S. and stolen by ISIS.

This is not an enemy the U.S. is used to fighting unless we are talking about asymmetric warfare and Seal Team units taking out leaders of terrorist groups around the world like Osama bin Laden. But, Al-Baghdadi isn't an idiot, he has a PHD so is very smart in a whole lot of ways at once. He can wear a lot of different hats sort of like a good Businessman can.

This guy is no fool and wants to be the leader of an Islamic State and de facto he actually is a leader of cities and areas from central Syria up to 30 miles away from Baghdad at present. He isn't a leader that won't eventually kill a whole lot of people who are shias (if he hasn't already) but this is no fool.

So, what should Obama do?

This isn't an easy question to answer because al-baghdadi doesn't have infrastructure yet like Saddam Hussein did.

Will Baghdadi take Baghdad?

More likely he will starve Baghdad of oil and food and water and lay siege to the city this way over a long period of time.

However, likely Iran will keep Eastern Iraq roads and highways open from Baghdad East so Shias who want to flee ISIS will be able to go to Iran so they don't starve or die of thirst.

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