Iran's Scary Influence on Iraq and the Middle East

Iran is a very old culture thousands of years old in the Persian culture. So, in some ways it is a lot like Egypt and China both being very old cultures too. So, to underestimate any culture that has already survived thousands of years unbroken is to be extremely naive.

Iran likely is going to want to reclaim Baghdad, Najaf and Karbala into Iran. But, they don't want to piss off Baghdad, Najaf and Karbala residents by just taking that land. So, they have to be very coy about this. And that is what is presently happening. From an Iranian point of view the sacred sites are the most important but I think at some point Iranians will send in their armies to confront ISIS because it is the only way to keep ISIS from eventually coming into Iran after them at some point in the near or far future.

So, in the short run at least, it is in Iran's best interests to eventually take and defend Baghdad, Najaf and Karbala and points south.

To not do this is to risk an all out war to the death between all Shias and Sunni in the middle east. And I don't think this will ever be in Iran's interests because just in terms of potential soldiers Shias are many less in number than Sunnis so just soldier wise Iran would lose in this kind of war.

However, there was a war between Saddam Hussein and Iran during the 1980s in which the U.S. financed Saddam Hussein. However, the U.S. didn't want either side to win so they would aid Saddam Hussein a lot when he was losing and less so when he was winning because it wasn't in the interests of the U.S. for either side to win.

So, there is still a lot of anger around this war in Iran and Iraq among people who have wounded veterans or war dead on both sides. This is what Iran would have to overcome before it took over Baghdad or Najaf or Karbala.

However, the likelihood is this is what will actually happen and Iraq as we knew it will be no more. There will be: Kurdish Iraq, ISIS(ISIL) Iraq, and Iranian Iraq (part of Iran likely).

This is the most likely way all this will shake out over the next year or so. However, will it stay like this. Who knows?

However, in the short run this likely will cut off more and more oil from the Middle East and draw the armies and diplomats of all interested nations from around the world to try to fix this mess. But, in the end it will be the Iraqies and the Iranians themselves who likely will end this mess if it ever ends.