Aug 12, 2015 · The ongoing ElNiño event in the Pacific Ocean is now expected to rank among the top three such events on record, rivaling the historic ElNiño events ...
Aug 12, 2015 · This year's ElNino looks to rank among the strongeston record, with potential U.S. weather impacts. Continue reading →
El Niño Could Be Among Strongest on Record, Raising Risk of Floods
byErin McClam
2:07
The phenomenon known as El Niño is brewing in
the Pacific Ocean — and it could be one of the strongest on record,
raising the risk of floods and mudslides this winter in Southern
California, forecasters said Thursday.
It won't produce enough rain to end the historic drought in California, they said.
Still, it could rival the most powerful El Niño
since records were first kept in 1950, experts from the government's
Climate Prediction Center said. That was during the winter of 1997-98,
when Southern California was drenched with twice its normal rainfall.
El Niño, an occasional warming of the Pacific
waters around the equator, can change weather patterns around the world.
In the United States, it usually means heavier than normal winter rain
in California and much of the South and East.
It also generally suppresses hurricane activity
in the Atlantic Ocean — and this has been an extremely quiet Atlantic
hurricane season. There have been three tropical storms and not a single
hurricane.
A
TV news crew files a report behind damaged homes after a mud slide
overtook at least 18 homes during heavy rains in Camarillo Springs,
California December 12, 2014. JONATHAN ALCORN / Reuters
This year's ocean warming could make for what
some climatologists are calling a Super El Niño. One went so far as to
tell the Los Angeles Times that it "has the potential of being the Godzilla El Niño." And a NOAA blogger cheekily suggested naming it Bruce Lee.
Scientists have already recorded unusual warmth
in the zone of Pacific Ocean in question, and it could reach 2 degrees
Celsius above normal. That has only happened three times in 65 years —
in 1997-98, 1982-83 and 1972-73.
The forecasters said they are expecting a wetter
than normal winter in the South and along the East Coast to southern
New England. Temperatures are expected to run above average from the
Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes and below average in the Southwest
and Southeast.
Exactly how big a dent El Niño makes in the California drought will depend on the vagaries of day-to-day weather this winter.
But it won't be enough. Kevin Werner, director
of Western climate services for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, told reporters that would take something wetter than the
wettest year on record.
"At this point there's no cause for rejoicing
that El Nino's here to save the day," said Mike Halpert, deputy director
of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "It's a serious situation, and the
word still needs to be 'conserve.' The drought is not ending anytime
soon."
end quote from:
The 1862 floods in California were also preceded by many years of droughts which might make it more likely for flooding (Great or small) this rainy season in California with this large of an El Nino.
If flooding occurs next fall, winter and spring the biggest problem likely would be erosion from lack of enough grass, foliage and trees to stop the mud and water from coursing through areas on the west coast. I have seen this sort of thing before especially when big rains occur after fires.
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