Scientists now think El Nino could be most potent on record
New forecasts are solidifying what we've been saying for months now: El Nino is here to stay, and just keeps getting stronger.
NOAA held a press conference Thursday to announce that the current El Nino is already the second strongest recorded since they've kept track of El Nino (which is around 1950) and models indicate it might pass the 1997-98 El Nino as the strongest on record.
It's getting such national attention because strong El Nino's historically bring copious amounts of rain to Southern California and across the south. That aforementioned 1997-98 event is blamed for 17 weather-related deaths in California, and so you have several million who could be affected this winter.
For the Pacific Northwest, it's usually the opposite: We tend to have rather tame winters that end up warmer and drier than normal. But does "Super El Nino" (or "Bruce Lee El Nino" as apparently they're calling it -- all right, who from the Weather Channel got to NOAA on giving wacky names to storms?) mean it'll be Super Warm and Super Dry in the Northwest?
Not exactly.
That winter of 97-98 was drier than normal around here, but not by a Super Large Amount. November and December had about 60% of normal rainfall, while January was actually wetter than normal by about 2 inches. February was again about 75% of normal for rain, and March was pretty close to even. Snoqualmie had about 82% normal snowpack. So yes, drier than normal, but not Super Dry.
Why? From what I remember that year, the storms were geographically so large going into California that we still got the rain from the storms' northern edges.
Now, with Pacific Warm Blob still there (that area of warmer than usual waters off our coast -- which shows up nicely on that map above), I'd think that will keep the warmer than normal theme going through the winter.
Here's the national story on the El Nino report, courtesy of AP Science Writer Seth Borenstein
WASHINGTON (AP) - The current El Nino, nicknamed Bruce Lee, is already the second strongest on record for this time of year and could be one of the most potent weather changers of the past 65 years, federal meteorologists say.
But California and other drought struck areas better not count on El Nino rescuing them like in a Bruce Lee action movie, experts say.
"A big El Nino guarantees nothing," said Mike Halper, deputy director of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center. "At this point there's no cause for rejoicing that El Nino is here to save the day."
Every few years, the winds shift and the water in the Pacific Ocean gets warmer than usual. The resulting El Nino changes weather worldwide, mostly affecting the United States in winter.
In addition to California, El Nino often brings heavy winter rain to much of the southern and eastern U.S.
It's also likely to make the northern winters warmer and southeastern U.S. winters a bit cooler, but not much, Halpert said. The middle of the U.S. usually doesn't get too much of an El Nino effect, he said.
California's state climatologist Michael Anderson noted that only half the time when there have been big El Ninos has there been meaningfully heavy rains. The state would need 1½ times its normal rainfall to get out of this extended drought and that's unlikely, Halpert said Thursday.
Still, this El Nino is shaping up to be up there with the record-setters, because of incredible warmth in the key part of the Pacific in the last three months, Halpert said. He said the current El Nino likely will rival ones in 1997-1998, 1982-83 and 1972-73.
NASA oceanographer Bill Patzert said satellite measurements show this El Nino to be currently more powerful than 1997-98, which often is thought of as the king. But that one started weaker and finished stronger, he said.
This El Nino is so strong a NOAA blog unofficially named it the "Bruce Lee" of El Ninos after the late movie action hero. The California-based Patzert, who points out that mudslides and other mayhem happens, compares it to Godzilla.
Economic studies favor the hero theme, showing that El Ninos tend to benefit the United States. Droughts and Atlantic hurricanes are reduced. California mudslides notwithstanding, the U.S. economy benefited by nearly $22 billion from that 1997-98 El Nino, according to a study.
El Nino does tend to cause problems elsewhere in the world. And while El Nino often puts a big damper on the Atlantic hurricane season, that means more storms in the Pacific, such as Hawaii, Halpert said. So far this year, tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific is far higher than normal.
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NOAA held a press conference Thursday to announce that the current El Nino is already the second strongest recorded since they've kept track of El Nino (which is around 1950) and models indicate it might pass the 1997-98 El Nino as the strongest on record.
It's getting such national attention because strong El Nino's historically bring copious amounts of rain to Southern California and across the south. That aforementioned 1997-98 event is blamed for 17 weather-related deaths in California, and so you have several million who could be affected this winter.
For the Pacific Northwest, it's usually the opposite: We tend to have rather tame winters that end up warmer and drier than normal. But does "Super El Nino" (or "Bruce Lee El Nino" as apparently they're calling it -- all right, who from the Weather Channel got to NOAA on giving wacky names to storms?) mean it'll be Super Warm and Super Dry in the Northwest?
Not exactly.
That winter of 97-98 was drier than normal around here, but not by a Super Large Amount. November and December had about 60% of normal rainfall, while January was actually wetter than normal by about 2 inches. February was again about 75% of normal for rain, and March was pretty close to even. Snoqualmie had about 82% normal snowpack. So yes, drier than normal, but not Super Dry.
Why? From what I remember that year, the storms were geographically so large going into California that we still got the rain from the storms' northern edges.
Now, with Pacific Warm Blob still there (that area of warmer than usual waters off our coast -- which shows up nicely on that map above), I'd think that will keep the warmer than normal theme going through the winter.
Here's the national story on the El Nino report, courtesy of AP Science Writer Seth Borenstein
WASHINGTON (AP) - The current El Nino, nicknamed Bruce Lee, is already the second strongest on record for this time of year and could be one of the most potent weather changers of the past 65 years, federal meteorologists say.
But California and other drought struck areas better not count on El Nino rescuing them like in a Bruce Lee action movie, experts say.
"A big El Nino guarantees nothing," said Mike Halper, deputy director of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center. "At this point there's no cause for rejoicing that El Nino is here to save the day."
Every few years, the winds shift and the water in the Pacific Ocean gets warmer than usual. The resulting El Nino changes weather worldwide, mostly affecting the United States in winter.
In addition to California, El Nino often brings heavy winter rain to much of the southern and eastern U.S.
It's also likely to make the northern winters warmer and southeastern U.S. winters a bit cooler, but not much, Halpert said. The middle of the U.S. usually doesn't get too much of an El Nino effect, he said.
California's state climatologist Michael Anderson noted that only half the time when there have been big El Ninos has there been meaningfully heavy rains. The state would need 1½ times its normal rainfall to get out of this extended drought and that's unlikely, Halpert said Thursday.
Still, this El Nino is shaping up to be up there with the record-setters, because of incredible warmth in the key part of the Pacific in the last three months, Halpert said. He said the current El Nino likely will rival ones in 1997-1998, 1982-83 and 1972-73.
NASA oceanographer Bill Patzert said satellite measurements show this El Nino to be currently more powerful than 1997-98, which often is thought of as the king. But that one started weaker and finished stronger, he said.
This El Nino is so strong a NOAA blog unofficially named it the "Bruce Lee" of El Ninos after the late movie action hero. The California-based Patzert, who points out that mudslides and other mayhem happens, compares it to Godzilla.
Economic studies favor the hero theme, showing that El Ninos tend to benefit the United States. Droughts and Atlantic hurricanes are reduced. California mudslides notwithstanding, the U.S. economy benefited by nearly $22 billion from that 1997-98 El Nino, according to a study.
El Nino does tend to cause problems elsewhere in the world. And while El Nino often puts a big damper on the Atlantic hurricane season, that means more storms in the Pacific, such as Hawaii, Halpert said. So far this year, tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific is far higher than normal.
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