Russian
and Iranian officials suggest that Saudi Arabia, the United States and
allies like Turkey are coming to realize that fighting terrorism is more
important than ousting Mr. Assad, though Mr. Jubeir insisted after his
meeting with Mr. Lavrov that “there is no place for Assad in the future
of Syria.” Conversely, American and Turkish officials, who contend that
his rule drives radicalism, say that Russia has grown more willing to
see him replaced.
And
even if real consensus can be reached, any agreement would have little
meaning right now, when many forces on the ground still believe they can
gain by fighting. Any deal that emerges would be likely to cover only
the government-held western spine of Syria and parts of the south, where
relatively moderate insurgents are strongest. It is virtually
inconceivable that the Islamic State, entrenched in eastern Syria, or
the Nusra Front, Al Qaeda’s arm in Syria and a powerful force in the
northwest, would be included.
What
is nonetheless taking place internationally is a shift in tone, a sense
of movement below the surface. That alone is notable in a context of
divides that can seem unbridgeable, after four and a half years of
fighting that has killed at least a quarter-million people and driven
the worst refugee crisis in a generation.
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