1 billion in 1850: 7.3 billion today: 11.2 in 2100

For the past 200 years the global population has risen explosively. There were 1 billion humans in 1850. There are 7.3 billion today. Ever since the Industrial Revolution, humanity has lived in quiet dread that somewhere there is a limit, and the Malthusian horsemen of plague, starvation and war will one day punish our effrontery.

Demographic change is easy to miss, because it happens slowly, but we stand on the cusp of a profound change in the human condition. New projections from the UN suggest that, in a few decades, we could secure a stable global population.

To be clear, the forecasts do not show an imminent end to population growth – far from it. The global population has the momentum of an elephant on an ice rink. The UN’s medium-variant projection shows a rise to 9.7 billion people in 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100.

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In Depth:UN forecasts end of global population explosionIrish Times

 

The momentum of growth here to 7.3 billion today has mostly been caused by innnoculations on a mass scale and development of oil as an energy source. Now all this is changing to solar and wind in a very aggressive way. For example, Hoover Dam near Las Vegas is going to be torn down b e cause they no longer need it because of the amount of solar and wind in that area of the world. But, I think the primary problem in increasing populations has to be potable water and tillable land. The amount of water and land that is tillable is reducing every year now because of population growth and global Climate changes which make rain either too much or not enough where the land is good enough to grow food.

Also, tearing down the Hoover Dam will allow the water of the Colorado River to move more freely once again. However, I think cities like Phoenix and Los Angeles and San Diego will also be competing for that water once it is released downstream as well. So, even though some of it will once again reach the Gulf of California and Farmers in that area of Mexico it is not likely that even with the dam gone that much will reach there still.

Also, what happens when we begin to run out of oil as useful prices by 2100? There likely will be a mass exodus of people from the earth because only with oil can you have over about 1 billion people living on the earth. However, now with developed solar and wind and water power this might just replace oil as it becomes too expensive to pull out of the earth over time as labor and material costs rise worldwide.