Thursday, August 20, 2015

Oil prices are nation driven now not market driven

In the late 1980s Saudi Arabia helped drive the old Soviet Union into bankruptcy which it did by lowering the price of oil. It is doing the same thing now to all competitors in the oil business, especially Russia, Iran and ISIS. However, other Opec nations might not appreciate this if the lower prices are causing problems to their national economies.

It is important to understand that basically right now Oil prices are all nation driven at core because of the war in the Middle East and the Ukraine. To not see this is to not understand what is really going on.

So, as much as the lower prices are wonderful for all economies they don't reflect the real truths in the market. Saudi Arabia more than once leads oil prices down. Why?

Because they don't want to cease to exist as a country (this time) ISIS is a threat to Saudi Arabia's existence and so is IRan right now. So, anything they can do to disempower ISIS and Iran they likely will do.

And Since Saudi Arabia doesn't like Russia much either, (same with the old Soviet Union), Saudi Arabia is trying to bring down Russia economically too.

So, when you look at the game of chicken over oil that both Russia and Saudi Arabia are engaged in, basically they both want to drive the price of oil down to destroy the other one. I'm not sure who can outlast the other first, money solvency wise.

So, you can see from what I'm saying is when oil prices are not market Driven there are all sorts of long term and short term consequences for every country on earth.

Right now the price of Gas is 3 something a gallon everywhere pretty much right now in the U.S. and more almost everywhere else. But, what happens when all the oil drillers and all the Shale mining businesses go out of business and instead of a glut of oil we don't have enough?

So, hopefully all these nation states including the U.S. have a plan to keep countries from going bankrupt out the other end of this oil glut which is driving oil drillers and Shale miners out of business in droves.

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