Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Is this the end of China?

  • The below article may be signaling the end of China much like Chernobyl signaled the end of the Soviet Union. I'm wondering whether China will break up into many states with a much smaller China left in the center of many other states.

    What is causing the collapse of China?

    1. ecological devastation

    2. building too many buildings that no one wants to live in and pay rent because they are faulty.

    3. too much top down control of everything with no feed back loops. 

    4. The rising cost of wages in China is making them more non-competitive compared to nations like Viet Nam for example.

    However, China doesn't have a Yeltsin to save it right now nor likely would one be allowed to emerge by the Communist party. So, expect a lot of civil war and strife or an unknown occurrence completely to emerge from there.

    My question might be: "Will China's nuclear weapons be safe from Terrorists?" This might be the biggest question of the next 10 years or so.

    Regarding the following article I might say, "If you can't afford to leave your Principle in your stocks in place for around 5 to 10 years and let it come back to 17,000 or 18,000 then some people might sell like they are talking about. One alternative is you wait for the bottom (if you can find it) and diversify to reduce your capital gains taxes. Then you ride it back up again. I think the last low was in 2009? and it was about 6900. But, People who stayed in and rode it up watched their money almost triple to over 18,000 since 2009 last spring.

    Some people are going into "Safe" bonds as an alternative. Is RBS right? I don't know. 

    If we are going to a low I'm thinking the low won't be below 12,000 or 13,000 this time. But then again we might be back up at 18,000 in a couple of months too. However, any way you look at it expect a very volatile year. For example, some people are going to sell if it goes back up which likely will drive prices down once again. I don't know for sure. But, Volatility likely is what we will see this year, lots of downs and ups like last year.

    This year will be only for those with nerves of steel any way you look at it.

No comments: