The Syrian Rebels likely will win this war for their homeland in Syria much the same way American colonists won their Revolutionary war over 2 centuries ago now. It is a guerrilla war. In this type of warfare the people get guns and become snipers and bombers and act a lot like the French Underground (and other national undergrounds did) during world war II against Hitler. So, it is a war of attrition against a well armed army.
But, by staying mobile and attacking like a hoard of wasps at random on their enemy soon the enemy is attacked from so many different places 24 hours a day that equipment fails like tanks and planes and armored vehicles and cannons etc. and soon there is no one left to drive the tanks or planes or armored vehicles or to man the cannons and the government falls. However, this won't be as easy this time because of all the Sunnis that have been massacred and all their relatives who are armed and who are now seeking revenge against any Alawite Shia Muslims who massacred their friends and relatives. So, because of this continuing massacre this could go on like this for weeks, months or years. Because all the soldiers loyal now to Assad know that they and their families will be massacred for sure if they now lose this war. So, you won't see the average Assad soldier leaving his post unless he knows his alawite Shia Muslim family has already left Syria for safety.
So, though we have seen mostly Sunni Muslims massacred up until now, likely we are also beginning to see Alawite Shia Muslims and any other allied with them being massacred from now on as well. And likely there is nothing anyone can do about this. And the walking wounded on both sides are going to build up now and many may be ready for an insane asylum that doesn't exist. But since they are armed on both sides now the massacres on both sides likely will continue for several years at least the way things are going at present.
The Al Qaida Terrorists and other Islamist Jihadists likely will only make this sort of thing much worse because jihadists are now coming into Syria from Chechnya, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Somalia and Yemen who are mostly all Sunni Jihadists. So, they will be out for Shia Blood and out to destabilize any new government in Syria that doesn't meet Jihadi needs. So, likely you will see Iranian Revolutionary Guards hunting Sunni Jihadists and vice versa from now on in and around Syria. So, I think this is a part of why The Free Syrian Army is starting to arrest Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Syria. And I think you will see a lot more of this as well as more Russian soldiers or intelligence officers being killed or Captured in Syria. And of course if reporters are able to get into Allepo or Damascus, Syria you can be sure NATO intelligence agents from all NATO countries are likely there too. So, all this reminds me a lot more of the Cold War and places like Afghanistan with the Soviet Army in the 1980s when Osama Bin Laden was a known CIA agent operative there. In fact, I think it was his group that first received the ground to air hand held missiles that first brought down Soviet Helicopters and jets. Sort of makes you think, doesn't it about now?
The most interesting news I have read today about all this is that the Free Syrian Army now holds the territory north of Allepo to the Turkish Border including several border crossings into Turkey. So, there are so many ground to air missiles now coming into Syria that Syrian planes and helicopters likely will really be falling out of the sky soon because of the Free Syrian Army in the North of Syria. So, likely it is only a matter of time before Syria and Assad falls completely into the Free Syrian Armies hands. However, with Iran and Russia being involved in propping up Assad directly and China being involved indirectly in supporting Assad almost anything can and will happen in the next days, months and years ahead.
Showing posts with label The Free Syrian Army. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Free Syrian Army. Show all posts
Thursday, August 9, 2012
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
The Free Syrian Army
You hear a lot about the Free Syrian Army which was organized in Syria last summer to fight the Assad regime in Syria. However, this was the most concise and informative article I have read yet about them. They appear to be engaged in a fierce Guerrilla style hit and run warfare in multiple places at once which tears down constantly the capacity of Assad's Government and military to function at all in any kind of useful or effective way ongoing.
Begin quote from:http://edition.cnn.com/2012/02/08/world/meast/syria-armed-resistance/?hpt=hp_c1
The grass-roots armed resistance is growing, attracting civilians as well as military defectors, and has become a thorn in the side of the Syrian military and the pro-regime militias, observers say. But it needs more personnel, better resources and improved coordination to take on the Syrian security presence, they add.
"The FSA is contributing to the strain on regime forces by requiring them to operate almost continuously and engage in frequent combat," said Jeffrey White, a defense fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
"This is in addition to the strain created by hundreds of peaceful civilian demonstrations across the country each week. The regime has been compelled to deploy larger forces and conduct more violent operations, increasing both its losses and the international visibility of its actions," he said.
Activist describes being jailed in Syria
How Assad's tactics are working
U.S. puts pressure on Syria
'Syrians will determine their future' "Although attrition of regime personnel is not yet numerically significant, the spectacle of burned-out government vehicles and dead soldiers likely rallies the opposition and decreases morale among regime loyalists."
White made remarks in a January 27 essay titled "The Free Syrian Army Bleeds the Assad Regime," and elaborated on that analysis in an interview Wednesday.
He said government operations "in recent days have pushed the FSA to a lower level of activity." But he also said the regime "has not been able to eradicate the FSA in any area."
He said the FSA has been engaged in combat in at least six of the country's 14 provinces -- Idlib, Hama, Homs, Deir Ezzor, Daraa, and Rif Dimashq. Rif Dimashq includes the Damascus suburbs.
The fighters have been "inflicting greater losses on regime personnel and equipment than at any time since its involvement in the uprising began," White said.
He said about 180 clashes were reported between early November and late January. One-third occurred in Idlib province and about a quarter in Daraa, while clashes have increased in Rif Dimashq.
The group has operated openly in places like Idlib province and the cities of Homs, Hama and Zabadani, and it has established control over some small pockets.
"Their most common operations include attacking regime positions (primarily checkpoints), defending demonstrators and local areas, and ambushing regime forces," White said.
Rebels say they are not getting weapons and money from outside groups. White said most of the weapons are captured or bought from the Syrian military. Some smuggling is reported, he added.
The rebels are getting better armed, with more and better antitank weapons, and the number of defections is growing, White said. end quote.
I found it interesting that one of primary ways that the FSA gets weapons now is by buying them from the Syrian Military. If this were the U.S. this wouldn't make any sense at all but in this environment I guess anything goes. In this kind of environment people will do literally anything to try and protect their families and friends. I don't think anything like this has ever happened in the U.S. And if it did it wasn't in the last couple of centuries.
I was listening to Wolf Blitzer on CNN TV today and it was said that the Pentagon is researching what militarily and otherwise it can do without U.N. mandate to help the people being killed in Syria. It has thought about arming the Free Syrian Army but then there is Russia that has a Naval Base in Syria that it desperately doesn't want to lose. The U.S. doesn't want to be led down a path into a proxy war between Russia and China and Iran and Hezbollah on One side and the U.S. , Canada, Europe, Australia and the rest of the Free World on the other side. However, leaving things as they are is unacceptable. So, at the very least you are going to see middle eastern nations and European and countries like the U.S., Canada, Australia and many others looking the other way if anyone wants to weaponize the Free Syrian Army. The likelihood is that wealthy middle eastern individuals will start to buy AK-47s, rocket launchers, anti-tank weapons etc. for the Free Syrian Army and no one will stop them. It likely will go from there. What Assad is now doing because of Arab Spring and because the world is watching will not work. I think he will be gone or dead within 1 or 2 years. It is inevitable. However, no one wants a world war to start over Syria either.
Days later: I have since I wrote comments on and compiled this information found out that the Alawite Shia minority Government of Assad will likely fight to the very last man. The reason for this is that if they don't they likely will be massacred by the Sunni relatives of the Sunni Muslims that they are genociding now. This is a real mess that could go on for years. Especially because of Iran supplying soldiers and weapons to Assad and Russia supplying weapons to Assad too. This will likely get as bad as anything I have seen in my lifetime before it is over and I have lived 63 years so far. This is a real mess that could cause a world war if it is improperly handled by everyone. And the Israel Iran component just makes it 100 times worse for the future of the world peace and oil at prices low enough so people can afford to live and eat. I hope there is not a world war or a World Wide Great Depression soon because of no oil coming out of the middle east at all. Since some places in the lower 48 states are already at $5 a gallon for premium those same gas stations might see $6 dollar a gallon premium by May and $7 a gallon premium by August. This I'm afraid just because of world survival of economies is going to start a major war which is something we haven't seen since World War II on the scale this likely is going to be. With Gas prices this high it is likely a lot of people are going to starve as well this year worldwide.
It is a good time to be praying for a good future for our children.
Begin quote from:http://edition.cnn.com/2012/02/08/world/meast/syria-armed-resistance/?hpt=hp_c1
The grass-roots armed resistance is growing, attracting civilians as well as military defectors, and has become a thorn in the side of the Syrian military and the pro-regime militias, observers say. But it needs more personnel, better resources and improved coordination to take on the Syrian security presence, they add.
"The FSA is contributing to the strain on regime forces by requiring them to operate almost continuously and engage in frequent combat," said Jeffrey White, a defense fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
"This is in addition to the strain created by hundreds of peaceful civilian demonstrations across the country each week. The regime has been compelled to deploy larger forces and conduct more violent operations, increasing both its losses and the international visibility of its actions," he said.
Activist describes being jailed in Syria How Assad's tactics are working U.S. puts pressure on Syria 'Syrians will determine their future' White made remarks in a January 27 essay titled "The Free Syrian Army Bleeds the Assad Regime," and elaborated on that analysis in an interview Wednesday.
He said government operations "in recent days have pushed the FSA to a lower level of activity." But he also said the regime "has not been able to eradicate the FSA in any area."
He said the FSA has been engaged in combat in at least six of the country's 14 provinces -- Idlib, Hama, Homs, Deir Ezzor, Daraa, and Rif Dimashq. Rif Dimashq includes the Damascus suburbs.
The fighters have been "inflicting greater losses on regime personnel and equipment than at any time since its involvement in the uprising began," White said.
He said about 180 clashes were reported between early November and late January. One-third occurred in Idlib province and about a quarter in Daraa, while clashes have increased in Rif Dimashq.
The group has operated openly in places like Idlib province and the cities of Homs, Hama and Zabadani, and it has established control over some small pockets.
"Their most common operations include attacking regime positions (primarily checkpoints), defending demonstrators and local areas, and ambushing regime forces," White said.
Rebels say they are not getting weapons and money from outside groups. White said most of the weapons are captured or bought from the Syrian military. Some smuggling is reported, he added.
The rebels are getting better armed, with more and better antitank weapons, and the number of defections is growing, White said. end quote.
I found it interesting that one of primary ways that the FSA gets weapons now is by buying them from the Syrian Military. If this were the U.S. this wouldn't make any sense at all but in this environment I guess anything goes. In this kind of environment people will do literally anything to try and protect their families and friends. I don't think anything like this has ever happened in the U.S. And if it did it wasn't in the last couple of centuries.
I was listening to Wolf Blitzer on CNN TV today and it was said that the Pentagon is researching what militarily and otherwise it can do without U.N. mandate to help the people being killed in Syria. It has thought about arming the Free Syrian Army but then there is Russia that has a Naval Base in Syria that it desperately doesn't want to lose. The U.S. doesn't want to be led down a path into a proxy war between Russia and China and Iran and Hezbollah on One side and the U.S. , Canada, Europe, Australia and the rest of the Free World on the other side. However, leaving things as they are is unacceptable. So, at the very least you are going to see middle eastern nations and European and countries like the U.S., Canada, Australia and many others looking the other way if anyone wants to weaponize the Free Syrian Army. The likelihood is that wealthy middle eastern individuals will start to buy AK-47s, rocket launchers, anti-tank weapons etc. for the Free Syrian Army and no one will stop them. It likely will go from there. What Assad is now doing because of Arab Spring and because the world is watching will not work. I think he will be gone or dead within 1 or 2 years. It is inevitable. However, no one wants a world war to start over Syria either.
Days later: I have since I wrote comments on and compiled this information found out that the Alawite Shia minority Government of Assad will likely fight to the very last man. The reason for this is that if they don't they likely will be massacred by the Sunni relatives of the Sunni Muslims that they are genociding now. This is a real mess that could go on for years. Especially because of Iran supplying soldiers and weapons to Assad and Russia supplying weapons to Assad too. This will likely get as bad as anything I have seen in my lifetime before it is over and I have lived 63 years so far. This is a real mess that could cause a world war if it is improperly handled by everyone. And the Israel Iran component just makes it 100 times worse for the future of the world peace and oil at prices low enough so people can afford to live and eat. I hope there is not a world war or a World Wide Great Depression soon because of no oil coming out of the middle east at all. Since some places in the lower 48 states are already at $5 a gallon for premium those same gas stations might see $6 dollar a gallon premium by May and $7 a gallon premium by August. This I'm afraid just because of world survival of economies is going to start a major war which is something we haven't seen since World War II on the scale this likely is going to be. With Gas prices this high it is likely a lot of people are going to starve as well this year worldwide.
It is a good time to be praying for a good future for our children.
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