Sunday, February 7, 2016

My thought is that Technological Singularity will occur between 2020 and 2030

Kurzweil predicts the singularity to occur around 2045[6] whereas Vinge predicts some time before 2030.[7] In 2012, Stuart Armstrong and Kaj Sotala published a study of artificial general intelligence (AGI) predictions by both experts and non-experts and found a wide range of predicted dates, with a median value of 2040.[8] Discussing the level of uncertainty in AGI estimates, Armstrong stated at the 2012 Singularity Summit: "It's not fully formalized, but my current 80% estimate is something like five to 100 years."[9]
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 technological singularity,

As you can see above the predictions of Technological singularity vary between Kurzweil's 2045 to Vinge's 2030.




However, I already see evidence of a Singularity in motion. It isn't like it's an atom bomb that happens one day.



It's more like when the automobile and Airplane hit the world starting between the 1880s and 1903 with the Wright Brothers in Kitty Hawk.

The Singularity is a rising tide of ideas and technology. You hold the Singularity in your hand with your Android or Iphone. When you read what I'm writing here you are reading via the Singularity in motion.

When your kids don't want to go outside and play and would rather spend all their time on Facebook or listening to music videos in their bedroom through your WIFI: Think Singularity in motion.

If you would compress the 1880s until 2100 then you would see the explosion I'm talking about which is a two century explosion of Singularity. This is why I'm saying the Singularity is already out of control right now and it is just going to get moreso over time.

Democracies aren't prepared for this. Dictatorships aren't prepared for this. Not even Terrorists are prepared for this. No one is prepared for what we are already in the middle of right now. And the level of changes will continue to accelerate with no end in sight.

Is this good or bad?

Usually both. 


Or as Descartes the famous French Philosopher might say:

"There is nothing so good that no bad may come of it
And Nothing so bad that no good may come of it."

This statement has been one of the most useful statements I have seen in my whole life.

It gets people beyond dualism which is a childish way to view reality and really only useful until you are about 12 years old.

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