Monday, September 2, 2019

The last Great Recession



The DJIA hit a market low of 6,469.95 on March 6,2009, having lost over 54% of its value since the October 9, 2007 high The bear market reversed course on March 9, 2009, as the DJIA rebounded more than 20% from its low to 7924.56 after a mere three weeks of gains.

At that time everyone's stock portfolio had dropped in value in total from 2006 or 2007 to 2009 about 2/3 in value. So, people had to decide what to do. People who actually needed their money to live paid the capital Gains tax (if they had had any gains since investing) and got out of the stock market some permanently.

However, those that did this didn't get to go from 9,469,95 up to about 27,000 recently or (triple the value of their investments in 2009). So, those that left the market because their homes were underwater and lived on their principle sometimes lost everything (especially the poor and middle Class in the Great recession. The Great recession mortally wounded the Middle Class in Americas and the world and made the world ripe for someone like Trump (a similar situation to how Hitler got in too in the 1930s).

So, there is a direct co-relation between the death of the middle Class between about 2007 and 2012 and Trump (the new Hitler) coming to power in the U.S. because of a devastated Middle Class that lost 75% of it's real wealth mostly from losing their homes or losing the value of their homes during this time.

So, it might be important to think about all this now before this next recession takes place which could become even worse than the Great Recession simply because we are in a Trade War Now that knows no end (just like World War II). The Trade war very easily could trigger a World Wide Great Depression because of Trump's stance and the Chinese stance.

Remember, the Chinese think in terms of 50 to 100 years so waiting until Trump dies or leaves office would be normal for them. The just expect Trump to leave office or die in office or after and they won't have to deal with him anymore.

However, just like the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars, the next president after Trump dies or leaves office likely will be forced by circumstance to continue the Trade war because of many different factors. So, because of this we might be in for a 10 to 15 year Great Depression worse than the last one because of this one fact.

So, there is no real way to know whether you want to stay in the stock market through all this or not. But, historically (but Trump is the opposite of Historical) and instead Chaotic. But, if you follow history staying in the market so you don't have to pay 20% Captial gains tax or whatever it is now might be (historically speaking the best idea). But, Trump being who he is it's really hard to say.

Because to me the definition of insanity would be Trump thinking the Chinese are going to make a different decision than they have so far regarding the Trade War.

For them, it's a matter of long term 6000 year principle of their fact that they are superior to all other races on earth and so other races do not deserve equality. Will Trump change this in the Chinese? Not Likely!

If you want to understand the Chinese mind in all this read "The Art of War" by Sun Tzu.

a part of this book says that "Business is War!" (in this case a war on the world generally by China or specifically a war on the U.S. on all levels).

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