Self-Driving Cars Available by 2019

1. Self-Driving Cars Available by 2019, Report Says | TIME.com

   business.time.com/.../self-driving-cars-available-by-2019-report-says/

   Aug 16, 2012 – Forget flying cars. The next innovation will be vehicles you don't even have to drive. But would we actually put our lives in the hands of a ...
2. Report: Self-driving cars could hit showrooms by 2019 - Chicago ...

   articles.chicagotribune.com › Featured Articles › Radar

   Aug 15, 2012 – It's been more than half a century since some of the first concept cars boasting self-driving features were presented to the world and they're still ...
3. Time magazine: self-driving cars will be available by 2019 ...

   blog.gasbuddy.com/...self-driving-cars...available-by-2019/1715-50...

   Aug 17, 2012 – While I remain skeptical that self-driving vehicles will be at the local car dealerships by 2019, I agree that sentiment in favor of self-driving ...
4. Self-driving cars in 2019, report says | KurzweilAI

   www.kurzweilai.net › News

   Aug 23, 2012 – Autonomous cars will be in showrooms as early as 2019, or maybe even sooner, ... KPMG, Center for Automotive Research, Self-driving cars: The next .... similar stimuli to buy self driving cars when they become available.
5. Self-Driving Cars Available by 2019, Report Says - Daily Mom Report

   dailymomreport.com/.../self-driving-cars-available-by-2019-report-s...

   Aug 17, 2012 – Self-Driving Cars Available by 2019, Report Says. ... Self-Driving Cars Available by 2019, Report Says. Go to this article · « Daily Mom Report ...
6. Feeddoo - Self-Driving Cars Available by 2019, Report Says

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   Forget flying cars. The next innovation will be vehicles you don't even have to drive. But would we actually put our lives in the hands of a computer-controlled car ...

   end quotes from Google Search.

   Report: Self-driving cars could hit showrooms by 2019

   Though infrastructure would likely take until 2025 and who knows if skeptics will ever embrace them

   August 15, 2012|By Ben Klayman | Reuters

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   The driverless car "Made in Germany" (MIG), which from the outside looks like a regular Volkswagen Passat with a camera on top, is being put through its paces at Berlin's disused Tempelhof airport in 2010.

   It's been more than half a century since some of the first concept cars boasting self-driving features were presented to the world and they're still not on the roads. But many auto executives say the industry is on the cusp of welcoming vehicles that make the idea of keeping both hands on the wheel an anachronism.

   

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   General Motors showed off "dream cars" in the late 1950s like the Firebird II and Cadillac Cyclone with features automakers are now starting to roll out in new models as the technology, based on sensors, lasers, radar systems, GPS, cameras and microchips -- improves and becomes less costly.
   While most industry officials don't envision a fully self-driving, or autonomous, vehicle before 2025, consulting firm KPMG and the Center for Automotive Research in Michigan see the first such vehicles hitting showrooms in 2019.
   But features such as adaptive cruise control or traffic jam assist that automatically slow or apply the brakes for a car in certain situations are already being introduced. And much like anti-lock brakes became the norm after initial resistance, these new technologies will prepare drivers for a future where they are needed less.
   "The whole concept of a car being able to drive itself is pretty profound," said Larry Burns, GM's former research and development chief and an adviser for Google's self-driving car project. "This is the most transformational play to hit the auto industry in 125 years."
   The progress has been in the making for decades as GM's Firebird II, introduced in 1956, included a system to work with an electrical wire embedded in the highway to guide the car. Three years later, the rocket-like Cyclone boasted an autopilot system that steered the car and radar in front nose cones that warned of a collision and automatically applied the brakes.
   However, the pace of invention has quickened, with such automakers as GM, Ford Motor Co., Toyota Motor Corp. and Volkswagen AG developing technologies to help drivers avoid accidents. Some even envision a future where today's cars are more amusement.
   "In the same way we all used to travel on horses and now horses are entertainment, you could imagine automobiles driven by people becoming more entertainment," said Chris Urmson, the Google program's technical head.
   In a world where Nevada and Florida have already passed laws allowing the licensing of self-driving cars, the rush is on to make the job easier for drivers. For many, the ultimate goal is to take the steering wheel totally out of consumers' hands and eliminate accidents altogether.
   "Once we have a car that will never crash, why don't we let it drive?" said Nady Boules, GM's director of autonomous technology development.
   However, Boules and executives like him will have to win over a public that includes those who love to drive or simply wouldn't trust their lives to a robot. Others, like long-haul truckers, could resist the technology for fear of job losses.

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   'BLUE SCREEN OF DEATH'
   "My mental model of trust in technology is a Windows blue screen of death. That's how much faith I have in PCs and computer systems," said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology's AgeLab.
   Reimer, whose group studies human behavior in relation to transportation safety and has worked with BMW, Ford and Toyota, said people are terrible overseers of highly autonomous systems and a car that helps drivers rather than replaces them would be a better model.
   J.D. Power and Associates found 37 percent of U.S. consumers it surveyed in March were interested in autonomous driving technology, but only 20 percent definitely or probably would buy it at an estimated price of $3,000. Consulting firm Accenture said last year that almost half of U.S. and British consumers it polled would be comfortable in a self-driving car.
   Even if the industry eventually wins the hearts and minds of most consumers, it also must establish the infrastructure that supports self-driving cars, including not only the technology but the necessary legal and liability frameworks -- things that may takes years to put in place.
   Bill Windsor, associate vice president of consumer safety at insurer Nationwide Mutual, pointed out the airline industry has had an autopilot feature for years, but people still man the cockpit. The same will be true for cars.
   "It's going to be a long time before we're going to feel comfortable turning over all the day-to-day decisions in driving to a computer," he said.
   Costs must come down as well. For instance, the laser-based Light Detection and Ranging system used by Google costs $70,000 according to a study released this month by consulting firm KPMG and the Center for Automotive Research (CAR).
   For that reason, the rollout over the next decade of more semi-autonomous features that assist drivers or take control of cars in only some cases is the path the industry is taking with the idea of preparing consumers for a future with fully driverless cars.

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   Report: Self-driving cars could hit showrooms by 2019 - Chicago ...

   Though we are already sharing the road with "driverless" cars the only way they can be legally driven in California and Nevada is with a potential driver at the wheel to take over in an emergency. So, driverless cars are sort of like an advanced form of "Cruise Control" where drivers make sure there are no accidents sort of like how back seat drivers now make sure actual drivers don't get into accidents a lot of the time already. 

   repeat quote from above: 

   ""My mental model of trust in technology is a Windows blue screen of death. That's how much faith I have in PCs and computer systems," said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology's AgeLab.
   Reimer, whose group studies human behavior in relation to transportation safety and has worked with BMW, Ford and Toyota, said people are terrible overseers of highly autonomous systems and a car that helps drivers rather than replaces them would be a better model. end repeat quote from above.

   My assessment is sort of like the above repeat quote as I worked as a computer programmer when first out of college. So, I worry the most about how ridiculous and stupid the reasons that people will tend to die in "driverless cars" will actually be. At first, when people die it will be for the most ridiculous and insane reasons, (both the people and animals hit by a driverless car and also the people that die inside a driverless car). This is just the nature of software glitches in all computers when they happen. 

   For example, a driverless car might function perfectly for 1 to 5 years and then suddenly lurch out in front of a Semi truck it doesn't see but you do because you are riding in the car just before you die from it. So, there is something to be said for drivers who are afraid enough to want to live and act accordingly. A computer on the other hand doesn't know what life is, even yours.

   What if a computer encountered a drunk or unsafe driver? Would the computer know to avoid and stay away from such a driver and thereby avoid an accident? I don't know the answer to this question, but likely it might not know the difference. What if a tree suddenly fell down in front of the car or on the car? What would the car do? It is the unknowns one encounters every day driving that wouldn't be dealt with properly. What if a two foot diameter piece of cement with re-bar sticking out of it fell off a work truck on a freeway? (I actually saw this destroy a VW Rabbit when they first came out in the 1970s). It drove the engine of the Rabbit up through the hood of the car. But what would the computer do if there was too much traffic to change lanes to save the vehicle or passengers? Again I don't know the answer to this either.