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The
Muslim Brotherhood remains the most organized political group. Egypt
protest. Supporters of Egypt's ousted president Mohammed Morsi chant
slogans Monday against the military near Cairo University, where
protesters have installed their camp in Giza, ...
Amid the turmoil, what's next for Egypt?
The Muslim Brotherhood remains the most organized political group.
CAIRO — Not long before sunrise Monday morning, security forces clashed with supporters of former president Mohammed Morsi outside a facility of the Republic Guard.More than 50 people were killed in the bloody chaos that ensued – days after Morsi, the nation's first democratically elected president, was forced out of power.
The country's constitution is suspended. Its legislature has been dissolved, and Monday's deaths threaten to stall a brittle and troubled process of transition.
Amid the turmoil, many wonder: What is next for Egypt?
"We are back to square one," said Fawaz Gerges, director of the Middle East Center at the London School of Economics. "There's a great deal of uncertainty, and I think it's going to take a while for the dust to settle."
The nation's military and appointed interim president, Adly Mansour, are in power. After a prime minister is in place, a Cabinet will be appointed. Then over the next several months, a constitution will be drafted – or an existing version revised – and the country will hold parliamentary and presidential elections.
The steps are part of a transitional plan driven by Egypt's opposition and announced last week by army chief Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi.
Monday's violence has unhinged, and potentially stalled, the transition.
Opposition leader Mohamed Abou El Ghar said Egyptian lawyer Ziad Bahaa El-Din is likely to turn down the prime minister position, which as of Sunday night he seemed set to fill.
Who will be the new prime minister "is becoming a secondhand issue," said Khaled Dawoud, a spokesperson for the National Salvation Front, the main coalition of opposition groups.
Dawoud said he could not confirm whether the political transition was stalled but said that if violence continues, the primary concern will be how to "keep the country together and prevent bloodshed."
Before Monday's violence, the details of the transitional steps were unclear, and no order for their implementation had been set. Mansour is likely to issue a constitutional decree in the coming days to clarify ambiguities such as who will be responsible for the completion of a new constitution, Dawoud said.
In an interview this week, Abou El Ghar said the opposition seeks "a rather early date for elections," noting that it is unclear if parliamentary elections will precede a presidential vote — or vice versa.
"Then we will have an international economic conference in Cairo to help Egypt in the coming period," he said.
But massive political and social divisions continue to overwhelm the transition.
The military and the opposition are at loggerheads with Morsi supporters and the Muslim Brotherhood, which insists Morsi's overthrow was part of a military coup. The group said it refuses any arrangements, actions and decrees issued in the interim period.
"We will not compromise on electoral and constitutional legitimacy," a Brotherhood statement said.
Many Brotherhood figures have been arrested, and three Islamist television channels were blacked out.
"The army has controlled everything," said Mohamed El Mekkawi, a member of the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party and former adviser to Morsi's finance minister. "All of our friends now are in jail."
When reached by phone Saturday afternoon, he refused to comment further, citing concern of arrest by the military.
The military-Muslim Brotherhood rift intensified after Monday morning's deaths, prompting differing narratives about who started the attacks. On Facebook, the Brotherhood called for an uprising against the military, which may decide to boost security measures.
Egypt's ultraconservative Nour Party said it no longer wants to be involved in talks over a new government — disturbing the already fragile political system.
Before Monday, the Brotherhood focused on rallying supporters around calls for Morsi to be reinstated. Many of his supporters said they can't imagine ever going back to the polls given the past week's events. They are disillusioned that their votes were washed away in the snap of the army's fingers.
"When you ask people at home, they are saying, 'We are not going to go to elections,'" said Mohammad El-Taher, 34, a communication engineer at a recent pro-Morsi rally in the capital. "We spent hours in line at the polls for a new era of democracy, and now it's nonsense."
Analysts say the attitude could drive more radicalism in Egypt, particularly in the eastern Sinai Peninsula, which shares borders with Israel and Gaza and has been a hotbed for growing militant activity.
"Some young Islamists might become radical and extreme because they lost faith in democracy," said Khalil Al-Anani, an expert on Egyptian politics and Islamist movements. "Why would they go to the ballot box if their voice is not respected?"
But the Brotherhood remains Egypt's most organized political group and could do well if it chooses to participate in elections.
The Brotherhood "would come out on top — that's my reading — because of their ability to deliver the vote," Gerges said. "They have a very skilled political machine. They have mastered the art of group politics."
The opposition has long been ineffective in getting voters to the polls even though they can drive protest movements.
As the country teeters in political limbo, President Obama's administration has conveyed serious concern over recent events. He ordered $1.3 billion in annual U.S. military aid to Egypt to be reviewed while other politicians in Washington call for assistance to be halted.
Aaron Delong, a former diplomat at the U.S. Embassy in Cairo from December 2010-2012, said there is always a possibility that aid can be cut.
"But if I were to assess the risk, I'd put it on the low end of the scale," Delong said. "What the U.S. is most interested in is stability and security and peace in the region, and to the extent that limiting economic assistance to Egypt would put that in danger — I don't think the U.S. is willing to do that at this point."
"Some see the Egyptian Armed Forces as the only stabilizing force in the country right now," he said. "Some see it as the most destabilizing force right now. But I think that on the whole that the assessment would be that cutting off funding to the Egyptian armed forces would be a destabilizing event."
Contributing: Jennifer Collins in Berlin
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