Trump may be forced to resign (70% chance according to Steve Bannon) before the end of his first term. But, just like Nixon before him he's not going to jail for the sake of the nation in the future. But, I think he might be prosecuted later by states for profiting billions from his time in office unless he gives all that money back to the government instead of going to jail.
Begin quote from:
No matter what Flynn says, the Trump family won't go to jail
No matter what Flynn says, the Trump family won't go to jail
Page Pate, a CNN legal analyst, is a criminal defense and constitutional lawyer based in Atlanta. He is an adjunct professor of law at the University of Georgia, a founding member of the Georgia Innocence Project, a former board member of the Federal Defender Program in Atlanta and the former chairman of the criminal law section of the Atlanta Bar Association. Follow him on Twitter @pagepate. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his.
(CNN)When Michael Flynn walked into a federal courthouse in Washington and entered into a plea and cooperation deal,
some people thought this marked the beginning of the end for Donald
Trump's presidency. Could Flynn be the man to take down this President,
and maybe even send him to jail?
There is little doubt that the Office of Special Counsel has been busy. We knew Robert Mueller and his team was aggressively dropping grand jury subpoenas
to gather evidence, and interviewing both major and minor players in
the Russia investigation drama that continues to unfold. And now, with
the criminal indictments of several Trump confidants, we know that the special counsel's work is bearing fruit.
Page Pate
But
where does this all end? Will Flynn's cooperation lead to criminal
charges against Trump or a member of his family? While we don't know
what Flynn has said or will say as he cooperates with Mueller's
investigation, there is no reason to believe that Trump or anyone
related to him will ever face prison time.
Considering what Flynn has admitted lying
about, it is certainly conceivable that Trump or a very senior member
of his team told Flynn to make contact with the Russians before Trump
was sworn in. If he did, that itself may be a crime under the much
maligned (but still on the books) Logan Act,
a law that makes it a crime for anyone to negotiate with a foreign
government in connection with a dispute relating to the US, unless they
have the official authority to do so. In Flynn's case, that means that
you can't act like you are the national security adviser until you
actually are the national security adviser.
Even
if Mueller isn't interested in a Logan Act violation, he won't ignore
people lying to his team during this investigation. In this case, Flynn
may have lied to protect himself and others from a Logan Act charge. If
so, the cover-up may have been worse than the crime.
Around the time that Trump asked former FBI Director James Comey about "letting Flynn go," I wrote
that Flynn should be given immunity so we could learn what he knew. I
thought that Flynn's access to senior-level campaign and transition
officials would be well worth the price of giving him a pass.
But
a plea deal is so much better. It establishes a factual basis for
criminal conduct, admitted by one of the participants. It also makes
Flynn a much more effective, and credible, witness against anyone else
involved. He has admitted that this conduct was wrong, and he has to
face at least some consequences for it. That makes it harder to attack
his credibility than if he got an immunity deal.
Will
other charges be announced by the special counsel before the end of the
year? Possibly, but I don't think it will be an indictment against the
President. There is a debate
among constitutional scholars about whether a sitting President can
even be indicted, and the logistics of actually prosecuting a President
while in office makes it unlikely it will happen. Even if Mueller were
willing to go after the President, Trump may be able to simply pardon himself and avoid prosecution.
But
what about Jared Kushner and Donald Trump Jr.? If there is evidence
that one or both of them broke the law, can't they be charged? Yes, they
can. They can be indicted, prosecuted, convicted, and sent to jail like
the rest of us. But they won't be. Trump would never let that happen to
his family. While there is a strong legal argument that Trump may not be able to pardon himself, there is no question that he can pardon his kids and anyone else he wants to.
The possibility that Trump may pardon a family member doesn't seem so farfetched now. One commentator has
suggested that Kushner could be the next shoe to drop in this
investigation. Based on what we learned from Flynn's plea, there is a
strong possibility that Kushner has some serious legal exposure.
If
Kushner asked Flynn to contact the Russians on the issue of vetoing the
Israeli resolution, for example, he may have violated the Logan Act. He
has also made numerous statements to Mueller's team and congressional
staffers during this investigation, presumably including what he and
Flynn discussed during the transition period. Of course, we don't know
what Flynn has said or will say to the special counsel, so any
discussion of what Kushner may have done is only speculation. But
Mueller's team may uncover evidence that Kushner was somehow involved in
obstructing the investigation in other ways, or making false statements
himself.
Trump Jr. seems to have had nothing to do with any calls to the Russian ambassador, but he was present at a questionable meeting, and made some statements about that meeting that may be inconsistent with what Flynn has said.
Regardless
of what Kushner or Trump Jr. may be facing, the fact is that they have
no real incentive to cooperate with the special counsel. They know that
whatever may happen in this investigation, they have a pardon in their
back pocket as long as they call the President, "Dad."
Unlike
Kushner or Trump Jr., however, Flynn had to cut a deal. Flynn was
likely facing more serious charges relating to financial dealings, and
the possibility of actual prison time was real. Trump could have thrown
him a lifeline by giving him a pardon before he had to plead guilty.
But
Flynn is not family, and the possible political and legal consequences
of pardoning him must have outweighed whatever sense of loyalty Trump
felt toward Flynn. He may have had no problem asking Comey to let him
go, but issuing a pardon was apparently more than Trump was willing to
do.
The only way Flynn's guilty
plea will directly affect Trump or his immediate family is if Congress
decides that enough is enough and moves towards impeachment. Perhaps, as
we learn more about the details of what happened during the campaign
and transition period, that may actually occur. But the Republicans are
in control of Congress right now and, given the way they have dealt with
the other ethical and moral lapses from this White House, I wouldn't
hold my breath.
Flynn has made his
deal and he may indeed have an interesting story to tell. But I don't
see it taking down this President, or his family, anytime soon.
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