When you see basically 1/2 of 1.3 billion people in China locked down and not working or leaving their homes except to buy food and necessities the mathematical models developed by universities around the world during epidemics and pandemics of the past make much more sense.
So, after watching this:
NOW PLAYING: Why China’s Official Coronavirus Num..
I took the original figure out of China which was 41 people with the Coronavirus in January. Then I took a low figure of what the mathematical models showed regarding the people with the virus that made it out of China which would be 1700 to 2000 and then used the lower figure of 1700.
I divided this figure 1700 into 41 to get the percentage that 41 was of 1700. It was an .024 etc and then rounded this off to 2.5 in my illustration. Then since I had the percentage of 2.5 % of the total I divided an arbitrary number (I used 100,000 people with coronavirus as an example since I believe we are about there and either over or under this estimation in China at present.
This came out to 40,000 as 1% of the total using this model which then means that 4,000,000 people in China are likely affected. But, this doesn't mean the government actually knows this amount of people have been infected. However, this also means that likely 80,000 people have died or will die of the 4,000,000 people infected so far in China (according to the University's mathematical model developed during other plagues, epidemics and pandemics around the world so far. 80,000 is 2% of 4,000,000 people infected since this virus presently has a 2% kill rate. But, if people panic around this the number likely would increase from people being killed by governments or each other. IN other words ignorant people or overzealous government workers or soldiers might increase the rate significantly way beyond 2%.
However, another thought I had was that numbers around the world outside of China might also reflect this 2.5% only reporting of actual infections too which made me think harder about all this. But, I'm not sure of this last statement yet.
But, if the model I used holds then the actual number of infections is 4,000,000 around now in China with 80,000 deaths (at 2% kill rate) which is likely closer to the actual deaths if the model is correct.
But, this also makes what is happening in China with almost 700 million people locked down away from jobs and school and travel make a lot more sense. Because of this many people are dying it is sort of like a war like situation for everyone trying to survive this in China right now.
And it makes it even more iffy if the Chinese Government actually will survive all this long term. At the very least heads will roll even more at a local level this year there among local leadership which might be why the doctor that reported this is dead as well as the head of Wuhan Hospital.
I also wonder if this is a naturally occurring virus or if it is weaponized by a country or a terrorist Group like Russia or ISIS or something like that.
For example, if 1.3 billion people got coronavirus in China (which isn't possible I don't believe in reality) it could cause a 2% kill rate which would be 26 million people. I'm not sure the present Chinese government could or would survive something like that.
If all 7.53 billion people on earth got the coronavirus it could cause at 2% 150,600,000
deaths potentially which would take it beyond the
category of World War II deaths
which caused about 100
million deaths and the same for the Cold War
another 100 million deaths
between 1945 and 1990 when the Soviet Union
collapsed.
But, it is not theoretically at least possible for 7.53
billion people to get the virus because some people
live very remotely away from other people
and some people might have a
natural immunity to it. The ones dying likely are
the very old with lowered immune systems and
the very young with not fully developed immune
systems yet. So, the most likely victims would be
under 10 or 12 and the ones
over 50 or 60 years of age.
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