Russia Sends Warships Toward Syria for Possible Evacuation
By ELLEN BARRY and THOMAS ERDBRINK
Published: December 18, 2012
Multimedia
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Russian officials began formulating plans during the summer for an
evacuation, but have delayed making public announcements, analysts say,
to avoid signaling a loss of confidence in President Bashar al-Assad, a
longtime strategic ally. Moscow staunchly opposes international
intervention in Syria and has blocked United Nations Security Council
resolutions meant to force Mr. Assad from power. Officials said on
Tuesday that Russia’s position had not changed.
However, Moscow has signaled in recent days that it sees Mr. Assad’s
forces losing ground, and that it is beginning to prepare for a chaotic
transition period. One immediate concern is the large number of Russian
citizens scattered across Syria, as a result of decades of intermarriage
and longstanding economic ties.
Late on Monday, Russian diplomats said that two Russian citizens had
been kidnapped by an armed group. The two Russians — evidently workers
in a privately owned steel factory — were seized as they traveled on a
road between Homs and Tartus and were held for ransom. An Italian
citizen, Mario Belluomo, was abducted along with them.
Then on Tuesday, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that a flotilla
of five ships — a destroyer, a tugboat, a tanker and two large landing
vessels — were being sent from Baltiysk, a port in the Baltic Sea, to
relieve ships that have been in waters near Syria for months. A second
group was sent from Severomorsk, on the Kola Bay in northwestern Russia.
At typical cruising speeds for such vessels, both groups would arrive
on station around the beginning of January.
A naval official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told the
Interfax news service that the ships were “on their way to the coast of
Syria for possible participation in the evacuation of Russian citizens”
to a Russian port on the Black Sea. The official said that the mission
had been planned swiftly but under conditions of total secrecy, and that
the timeline for the ships’ return to port “depends on the development
of the situation in Syria.”
Aleksandr I. Shumilin, a regional analyst and a foreign correspondent,
said Russian leaders had avoided taking steps toward evacuation until
now, to avoid signaling that Moscow intended to abandon Mr. Assad, but
that they also risked public anger if Russians became targets of
violence in Syria.
“It appears that some break has taken place, but whether that means a
change of policy, or a modification of policy, that’s hard to say,” said
Mr. Shumilin, who is head of the Middle East conflict analysis center
at the Russian Academy of Science’s Institute for Canada and the United
States. “The decision-makers are now concentrating on humanitarian
questions, the protection of Russian citizens.”
Iran, Syria’s last ally in its region, appeared to remain firmly
committed to Mr. Assad. On Tuesday, Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir
Abdollahianof Iran told reporters in Moscow, “The Syrian Army and the
state machine are working smoothly.”
A planned visit by the president of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to Ankara, the capital of Turkey,
was suddenly canceled on Monday amid tensions between Iran and Turkey
over NATO’s decision to deploy Patriot antimissile batteries on the
Turkish border with Syria.
Iranian leaders, politicians and Revolutionary Guard commanders have all
denounced the NATO decision, made on Dec. 4, to send six batteries of
American, German and Dutch Patriot systems staffed by about 1,000
soldiers to Turkey to intercept any Scud missiles that may be launched
toward Turkey by the embattled Syrian government. Iran fears that NATO
will use the batteries, which can also be used against aircraft, to set
up a no-fly zone and create a rebel safe haven in northern Syria.
Iran’s top general, Hassan Firouzabadi, said at a meeting of senior
commanders on Saturday that the deployment was part of a Western plan to
start a “world war,” and that Iran’s own ambitious missile program was
the real target.
“They signify concerns over Iran’s missiles and the presence of Russia
for defending Syria,” he said. “The sensible people in America, Turkey
and Europe must prevent this situation from getting out of control.”
The mobile Patriot systems could technically be used to intercept
Iranian as well as Syrian missiles. They are effective against missiles
at a range of about 12 miles, and against aircraft up to 100 miles.
Iran has repeatedly threatened to fire missiles at Israel if its nuclear installations come under attack.
On Tuesday, Iran’s defense minister, Ahmad Vahidi, said Israel was the
winner in the Syrian conflict, because it was witnessing the destruction
of an enemy — the Assad government — while the Syrian people were being
“manipulated” by “terrorists.”
Turkey’s foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, urged Iran to use its
political clout with Damascus to end the violence in Syria, instead of
making statements about the Patriot systems.
“Turkey and NATO have stressed over and over again that this system is
solely for defensive purposes,” Mr. Davutoglu told reporters. “Turkey
has the right to do what it wants in order to protect its territory. It
is time for Iran to give a clear message to the Syrian regime.”
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