Friday, December 21, 2012

The Republican Fiscal Cliff Strategy

Just like Democrats have to worry about a democratic challenger to the left of them in a primary, Republicans have to worry about a challenger to the right of them in their primaries.

So what appears to be happening now is that Republicans are really afraid of anyone "Who might say that they once voted for a raise in taxes".  Because that is usually the end to any Republican candidate's career in Congress.

So, like Boehnor was talking about how some of his colleagues cannot vote for any raises in anyone's taxes and get re-elected. So, the idea appears to be "Let the country go over the fiscal cliff and let the new congress get into office so everything they appear to be doing will be a tax cut, because the fiscal cliff increases taxes on Everyone. So, by going over the fiscal cliff they don't have to be seen as "Raising Taxes" but only as "Cutting Taxes" after we go over the fiscal cliff in January and February.
Even though this would be seen as disingenuous to you and me, still it is actually accurate that they never voted for a raise in taxes. Instead by not voting they would  raise taxes on everyone by allowing us to go off the fiscal cliff. 

The real problem I see with this is the people on unemployment insurance who have been on longer than 26 weeks who won't get any money until this problem is resolved (after January 1st). So, what happens if people in Congress and the President still can't agree on what to do in a way that keeps us out of another recession? Because the cuts of 500 billion dollars are really draconian if we go over the fiscal cliff and will really hurt everyone from the Defense department to Social Security, to Medicare to Medicaid and to unemployment Compensation etc. etc. etc. And likely the middle class and the poor will be hurt the most by this new tax structure caused by going over the fiscal cliff. I think it is an average of 2 to 4 Cents of every dollar  less that will be take home pay for most middle class and poor working people. But I don't think the losses in benefits to the average person have been figured into this as well, just taxes.

John Boehner: from humble origin, fiscal cliff may be his undoing

John Boehner: from humble origin, fiscal cliff may be his undoing

House speaker's journey from hometown janitor to the top of US politics is on the verge of being undone by Tea party colleagues
john boehner profile
John Boehner on Thursday stood not as a representative of the American dream but of Washington's dysfunction. Photograph: Win Mcnamee/Getty Images
As a boy John Boehner mopped floors at the family's cafe in Reading, Ohio, and helped rein in his 11 siblings as they charged around a cramped house, an early exercise in authority which seemed ideal preparation for taming the unruly.
He worked multiple jobs, including being a janitor, to put himself through college – a first for the family – and quickly rose through the ranks of business, local politics and then Congress.
"I've spent my whole life chasing the American dream," Boehner said in 2010, tears welling, before becoming speaker of the House of Representatives. He seemed destined for grandeur, perhaps even greatness.
On Thursday night, as cold winds gusted through Washington, the 63-year-old Republican had reason to tear up again. A revolt in his own party killed a tax bill which Boehner had championed as a solution to the fiscal cliff. He failed to tame Tea party-linked colleagues and stood not as a representative of the American dream but of Washington's dysfunction.
Instead of being hailed as a shrewd tactician who could bridge the ideological divide and steer Republicans to a historic accommodation with Democrats, and thus avert economic disaster, he found himself pilloried as the architect of debacle.
"I've never seen anything like it where leadership just completely backed down," Colorado representative Mike Coffman told The Hill.
An unnamed GOP insider gave a saltier verdict to the Atlantic's Molly Ball. "He just lost the respect of the caucus. No one thought he was capable of fucking this up like this."
The stakes could hardly be higher. Without an agreement by 1 January, every taxpayer in America will face a rise. Automatic cuts in federal spending will also kick in, risking, say many economists, a return to recession.
Boehner proposed the so-called 'plan B' to rally the Republican-dominated House around a bill curbing tax rises for those earning $1m a year or less. The Democratic-controlled Senate and President Barack Obama would have killed it, arguing the rich would need to pay more, but the bill could have kept Republicans in the game and negotiations on track.
The speaker was confident of marshalling his troops behind the bill but Tea Party-backed members balked, unable to stomach any tax rise.
At the eleventh hour a "distraught" Boehner recited the Serenity Prayer and admitted defeat at a closed-door meeting of Republicans. Later, he broke the news to the nation. "The House did not take up the tax measure today because it did not have sufficient support from our members to pass."
US stock markets tumbled on Friday and the rest of the world blanched at the prospect of the US falling over the fiscal cliff. All eyes will now be on Obama and Senate leaders Harry Reid, a Democrat, and Mitch McConnell, a Republican, as they try to avert fiasco.
Whether they succeed or not, Washington is now asking how Boehner got into this mess, and whether he can survive as speaker. There is talk of overthrow.
It is a precipitate fall for a boy from humble origins who climbed fast and high. Of German-Irish stock, he was the second born of 12 children. The family home had just two bedrooms. When the bathroom was occupied the boys used to pee by a tree.
Boehner, a linebacker on the school football team, graduated in 1977 with a business administration degree from Xavier university. He joined Nucite Sales, a packaging and plastics firm, and worked his way up to be president.
The conservative Catholic, married with two daughters, was elected to the town board, then the state capitol before heading to Washington in 1991 as the US representative from Ohio's 8th congressional district.
Boehner proved to be an old-fashioned congressional politician, friendly with Democrats and used to doing bipartisan deals. He called the 2001 No Child Left Behind Act, co-authored with Ted Kennedy, his proudest achievement.
As a lieutenant to Newt Gingrich he rose up congressional ranks, becoming an increasingly visible fixture during the Clinton and Bush presidencies. Critics called him a lackey for lobbyists, especially the tobacco industry, and after becoming speaker the attacks intensified. Obama depicted him as a golf-loving friend of plutocrats and mocked his perpetual tan.
Late-night comedians called him the "sprinkler of the House" for a tendency to cry in public. "It is cold down in Washington, DC. They had to use an ice scraper on John Boehner's face to get the tears off, it was so cold," David Letterman joked on the Late Show.
Even so, Democrats respected him as a pragmatist. "We have different political views but have a good personal relationship," Nancy Pelosi has said.
His problem was that the 2010 mid-term elections brought in a wave of Tea party radicals. He has tried – and failed – to control them. During a stand-off last year over raising the federal debt limit Boehner managed an agreement with Obama, the so-called "grand bargain", but when he went back to his own party, he faced opposition led by Eric Cantor, the House majority leader.
This time around it seemed Boehner would pull it off. He purged radicals from prized committee positions and lined up Cantor and other fiscal hawks such as Paul Ryan and Grover Norquist on side. On the nightly news he would stride confidently in and out of meetings, seemingly in control. No longer an enigma, ordinary Americans learned to pronounce his name (Bay-ner).
And then, on Thursday night, it all fell apart. Boehner in effect admitted powerlessness.
"Now it is up to the president to work with senator Reid on legislation to avert the fiscal cliff," he said. Resolving the fiscal mess, he suggested, may require divine intervention. "How we get there, God only knows."
The Hill buzzed with speculation whether he would keep his job as speaker. "In light of what happened last night, if you aren't concerned, shouldn't you be?" one reporter asked Friday.
The former janitor from Reading who fought so hard to reach the top did not show a moist eye. "No, I'm not. Listen, you've all heard me say this and I've told my colleagues the same thing, if you do the right things every day for the right reasons, the right things happen."

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John Boehner: from humble origin, fiscal cliff may be his undoing



 

 

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