Six reasons events in Mali matter
updated 6:20 AM EST, Thu January 17, 2013
A Malian soldier holds a machine
gun on top of a jeep on the road back from the town of Mopti, Mali, on
Saturday, January 19. West African leaders Saturday discussed ways to
speed up deployment of African troops to help their French counterparts
push Islamist militants out of Mali.
HIDE CAPTION
French-led Mali offensive
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Mali's location and its wide areas beyond central control make it a magnet for militants
- The greatest risk of the Mali campaign is that it will serve as a recruiting sergeant for jihadists
- It has become a center for the conflict between tolerant and conservative Muslims
- Mali is now a test bed for the effectiveness of international action against militant Islam
Mali is one of the
poorest countries in Africa, a vast and sparsely populated land that is
largely desert. But events there are being watched with growing anxiety
throughout West Africa, in European capitals and in Washington. Why?
1) Location, location, location
Mali is hardly a regional
powerhouse and is "marginal" to the world economy. It does not sit on
lakes of oil; it is landlocked and desperately poor. But it is very big
-- nearly twice the size of France -- with seven neighbors whose long,
poorly guarded borders provide militants with supply (and escape)
routes.
Many of these countries -
from Algeria in the north to Ivory Coast in the south -- have
themselves seen violence, extremism and instability and are ill-equipped
to deal with the fallout from Mali imploding.
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To the west, Mauritania
has its own problems with Islamist militants associated with al Qaeda.
Neighboring Niger to the east has, like Mali, seen frequent rebellions
by ethnic Tuareg separatists.
To the north, the
Algerian government still has its own al Qaeda problems. In the 1990s an
Islamist insurgency and its repression claimed at least 100,000 lives.
Militant cells remain active in the eastern mountains and in the desert
bordering Mali, where troop convoys have been ambushed on several
occasions.
Despite lingering
animosity toward France because of colonial rule, Algeria has taken the
unprecedented step in the past few days of allowing French military
overflights to monitor the extremists' movements. That's because,
according to analysts, it sees a growing danger of militant groups
coalescing. To try to prevent militants infiltrating, Algeria has closed
its border with Mali and deployed some 30,000 troops to border regions.
Mauritania has also tried to protect its border.
Mali also sits astride
some of the most lucrative smuggling routes from Africa to Europe,
routes that militants have turned into a cash machine. At one point,
drug traffickers from South America were flying aging jets packed with cocaine into a remote desert airstrip in Mali, for shipment to Europe.
So vast and inhospitable
are the deserts of North Africa that groups with local knowledge (and a
fleet of 4 x 4 vehicles) can make serious money from trafficking,
whether in drugs, people or other contraband.
2) Ungoverned space
In Mali and throughout
much of West Africa, the lack of state authority is nirvana to extremist
and criminal groups. Across a largely Muslim area stretching from the
Mediterranean to northern Nigeria, deprivation and corruption are
recruiting sergeants for militant Islamist groups: al Qaeda in the
Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the Movement for Jihad and Unity in West Africa
(MUJAO), Ansar Dine and Boko Haram.
The current crisis has
been some time in the making. A U.S. diplomatic cable from 2009 quoted a
senior Algerian official, Abdelmalek Guenaizia, who complained that
"the nexus of arms, drug and contraband smuggling in northern Mali
created an enabling environment" for terrorists, who would "use any
means available to finance their activities, including corruption and
hostage-taking."
Guenaizia warned then
that AQIM was increasingly capable. They "use the best explosives, have
honed their bomb-making expertise and use sophisticated means to deploy
explosives against their targets," he said.
AQIM comprises largely
Algerians, Mauritanians and Malians. Experts say its total strength is
probably in the hundreds rather than any more. But the fall of Gadhafi
opened up a black market arms bazaar across North Africa, and western
intelligence agencies believe AQIM may have acquired anti-aircraft
missiles along with other heavy weapons, as well as plenty of vehicles,
essential in a region of few (and dilapidated) roads.
As jihad became more
difficult elsewhere -- from southern Yemen to the tribal territories of
Pakistan -- foreign fighters also began appearing in Mali. Reports from
the northeastern town of Gao in recent months said Pakistani and Saudi
militants had been seen there.
There is the risk that global jihad's center of gravity could shift from South Asia to North Africa.
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U.S. to assist France in Mali
French militant operations in Africa
"We have a
responsibility to make sure that al Qaeda does not establish a base for
operations in North Africa and Mali," U.S. Defense Secretary Leon
Panetta told reporters Monday. "While they might not have any immediate
plans for attacks in the United States and in Europe, ultimately that
still remains their objective."
The current crisis in
Mali began in January last year, when a rebellion by ethnic Tuaregs
(helped by weapons brought from Libya as the Gadhafi regime crumbled)
erupted. Mid-ranking officers in Mali's army then launched a coup
against a civilian government largely seen as weak and corrupt, and in
some instances complicit with the militants for its own financial
benefit.
Ansar Dine (Defenders of
Islam) seized upon the chaos. The group was formed and led by Iyad ag
Ghali, a Tuareg who had become radicalized during time in Saudi Arabia.
While the main Tuareg rebel group, the National Movement for the
Liberation of Azawad (known by its French acronym, MNLA), did much of
the early fighting, Ansar Dine took control of cities such as Timbuktu
as government forces fled.
By the spring of last
year, Northern Mali had become the "largest territory controlled by
Islamic extremists in the world", according to U.S. Sen. Christopher
Coons, D-Delaware, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee
on Africa.
A video released last
week by al Sahara Media Foundation, which is affiliated with AQIM,
showed that militants had deployed heavy weapons around Timbuktu's
airport, including truck-mounted machine guns and rocket-launchers.
And then Ansar Dine made
a sudden move south, seizing the town of Konna and threatening the more
important city of Mopti and its airport.
Just why is unclear.
Some analysts believe they were trying to force the government's hand
ahead of talks in neighboring Burkina Faso. But the militants had
brought together as many as 300 pickup trucks, according to a French
source, and smuggled copious amounts of gasoline in from Algeria. A
thrust toward the capital, Bamako, was feasible.
France decided to respond immediately.
"We must stop the
rebels' offensive, otherwise the whole of Mali will fall into their
hands -- creating a threat for Africa and even for Europe," said the
French foreign minister, Laurent Fabius.
3) Exporting jihad
The greatest risk of the
Mali campaign is that it will actually nurture the very threat that
Fabius worries about: serving as a recruiting sergeant for jihadists, to
rally the faithful against a "crusader" enemy in Muslim lands. Two
jihadist sites -- the Sinam al-Islam Network and al-Minbar Jihadi Media
Forum -- have already urged support for fighters in northern Mali,
saying, "Rise O servants of Allah, let us set a fire under the feet of
the falling French cross."
There is also the danger
that extremists among the 5 million Muslims in France, the vast
majority of them of North and West African origin, may seek revenge for
French intervention. Less than a year ago, French intelligence services
moved against militant cells after a young gunman who had traveled to
the Pakistani tribal territories shot dead seven people in Toulouse.
President Francois Hollande has already ordered tighter security in public places.
"France is watching
individuals who want to go to Afghanistan, Syria and the Sahel," said
Interior Minister Manuel Valls. "We're watching those who could return
here."
Mali's neighbors could
also be drawn in if they support the French intervention. Algeria has
gone to great lengths to insulate itself from Mali's turbulence, but
Wednesday a militant group known as Qatiba -- led by a veteran Algerian
jihadist, Mokhtar Belmokhtar -- attacked a gas installation in eastern
Algeria and claimed afterward to be holding dozens of foreigners. The
group said the attack was in retaliation for Algeria permitting French
overflights as part of its operations in Mali.
For the Algerians, the assault on a critical part of its vital gas industry was a major embarrassment.
Security analysts said another group of militants appear to have attacked a Malian town from neighboring Mauritania.
Thirty thousand French
citizens live in West Africa; eight are already held by Islamist
extremists. Senegal has stepped up security in the capital, Dakar,
especially in locations frequented by foreigners. And a former U.S.
ambassador in Nigeria, John Campbell, writes on the Council on Foreign
Relations website that many Nigerians believe the local group Boko Haram
has developed links with AQIM.
"If such links do exist
on meaningful terms, it would seem likely that Boko Haram will escalate
their attacks in northern Nigeria in solidarity with its Islamic
brothers," he writes.
4) The soul of Islam
Twelve years ago, Mali
was one of six developing nations invited to attend the G8 summit in
Italy, and was seen as a beacon of civilian rule and stability in
Africa. After chronic instability in the years after independence, it
achieved a peaceful transfer of power from one democratically elected
president to the next in 2002. (The presidential election set for April
2012 never took place in the aftermath of the coup.) It had a thriving
press and lively radio stations. Women had a role in public life.
Indeed, in 2011 the prime minister was a woman.
Despite their country's
poverty and frequent food shortages, Malians had a reputation for
moderation and tolerance, and a rich history as one of the intellectual
centers of Islam.
Most Malians are of the
Sufi tradition -- a mystical interpretation of Islam that includes a
reverence for saints and is despised by puritanical Sunnis.
The city of Timbuktu
(sometimes called the city of 333 saints) was a religious and
educational center in the 15th and 16th centuries, and its libraries had
priceless collections of Islamic documents and books. Its tombs and
mosques comprise a UNESCO World Heritage Site, and attracted scholars
and tourists from all over the world.
Ansar Dine set about
destroying those tombs, insisting they were idolatrous. Throughout the
past few months, there have been reports of Malians' shock at seeing
public floggings and amputations in areas controlled by militant groups.
Radio stations were ordered to stop playing music and instead broadcast
verses from the Koran.
UNESCO's secretary
general, Irina Bokova, said last July, "The attack on Timbuktu's
cultural heritage is an attack against this history and the values it
carries -- values of tolerance, exchange and living together, which lie
at the heart of Islam. It is an attack against the physical evidence
that peace and dialogue is possible."
Mali's glorious musical
tradition derived from poets known as griots, highly influential
teachers and guides. From this background has blossomed an extraordinary
succession of world-class musicians (Ali Farka Toure, Tinariwen, kora
player Toumani Diabate and the Super Rail Band to name just a few) who
have won fans as diverse as Jimmy Page and Ry Cooder.
So as much as it is a
military and political battle, the struggle for Mali's future is also
cultural and religious. It pits a tolerant Islamic tradition -- which
celebrates music and in which women have a public life -- with an
ascetic interpretation that bans music, forbids education of girls and
destroys ancient tombs and shrines as "idolatrous."
5) A humanitarian crisis
Hundreds of thousands of
Malians are now either refugees in camps outside the country or
internally displaced. Most are dangerously prone to malnutrition and
disease. There are at least 150,000 refugees now in neighboring
countries. More than 50,000 live in one camp alone in Mauritania, where
Doctors Without Borders has found chronic rates of malnutrition among
children. Malaria and diarrhea are killing infants.
"It is hard to say when
the refugees will be able to return home, but many have already suffered
as a result of this crisis," said Karl Nawezi, head of the
non-governmental organization's operations in Mauritania.
"The influx of refugees
is far from over," he said. And many families are tempted to leave the
relative safety of the camps because they are herders who need to return
to their animals.
Additionally, some
200,000 Malians have fled south to escape the Islamists. Even today,
they are still arriving in towns like Segou as the battle lines to the
north shift in the sands.
"Many are tired,
distressed and in need food and water," said Michelet William, Mali
director of the British agency Plan. "We fear our already stretched
resources will not last long."
Children are being recruited in the hundreds as militant fighters for the promise of food and a small wage.
Without a quick end to
fighting and substantial humanitarian aid, a generation of young Malians
will remain at grave risk, imperiling the country's future.
6) A test of international will
Mali is now a test bed
for the effectiveness of international action against militant Islam in
Africa -- action that brings together very different capabilities and
cultures and that has an ill-defined goal.
Much depends on how
groups like Ansar Dine and others respond to the offensive. If the
militants scatter into the desert and Malian troops can reclaim the main
towns, partial victory can be claimed. But if they hunker down and mix
with civilians -- much as clans in Mogadishu did in 1992 -- France could
find itself in an ugly war of occupation and suicide bombings, with
insufficient troops (2,500 spread thin over a huge area) to provide
security.
This "would raise the
political costs of the French bombing campaign, dragging the
intervention into urban warfare that neither France, the U.S. nor
Algeria would be willing to lead with boots on the ground, and leaving
Mali's fractious military exposed," according to Phillippe de Pontet of
Eurasia Group.
The United States has
made clear it cannot help train the Malian army until a legitimately
elected government is in place, but it will provide satellite
intelligence and intercepts. France has no viable drone capacity of its
own.
The role of the African
force and its capabilities are unknown factors. Diplomats expect some
3,300 troops from seven or eight countries belonging to the regional
grouping known as ECOWAS (the Economic Community Of West African States)
to arrive in Mali over the next week or so. The largest contingent will
be from Nigeria, and the force will have a Nigerian commander.
They will need airlift
help -- which has been promised by the United Kingdom, Belgium and
Germany, and in which the United States conceivably could participate --
and are likely to be deployed in a holding role while French and Malian
forces push north.
But their ability to
work together and fight, should Ansar Dine militants somehow evade the
Franco-Malian advance, is very much in question. They have not trained
together, and they have different structures and languages. In addition,
some contingents will be no more than a token force of 100 men.
This is an ad hoc
"coalition of the semi-willing." Some French officials have begun
grumbling that other European states are doing too little.
Even if Ansar Dine and
other jihadist groups can be broken up, Mali's military and its
political institutions have been shredded by the chaos of the past year,
and its population is debilitated. The "Tuareg question" remains
unsolved, with southerners now even more hostile to Tuareg separatism.
Many MNLA fighters are
said to have fled west into Mauritania rather than get caught up in the
showdown between the French and the rebels.
The French may profess
satisfaction at scattering Ansar Dine, thanks to months of painstakingly
compiled intelligence on the group's bases. President Hollande has
pledged French forces won't leave until Mali has security, legitimate
authorities, an electoral process and no more terrorism.
But these are early days
in the campaign dubbed by the French military Operation Serval. The
serval is an agile desert cat. But it is also an endangered species.
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