Friday, September 20, 2013

Stock market

Though there are people who say the stock market is going to tank in the next 3 months down about 16 percent I don't agree with them. I think there are so many new variables because of what I would call "Singularity Issues" that the market is basically impossible to predict at this point. So, even if the market went down 16 percent one day it could theoretically go up 20 percent the next. So, I guess what I'm agreeing with is that the market is becoming more volatile than it was before but not in a "normal" way.

So, I guess what I would say is that even if you are in the market to stay it would be good to have a lot in cash too in case the market tanks so you can be okay no matter what happens. Then when it goes back up again you will be still happy you stayed in the market.

For example, when the market dropped to around 7000 my wife and I simply repositioned which means we took a few stocks and diversified. This was good because our capital gains taxes in doing this was very low at a 7000 mark. So, then we just rode the stocks up to 15,000 but just made sure we had all dividend bearing stocks which made it worth the risk of being in the market. A long term strategy is very different from a short term strategy.

For example, if you are a long term investor you know there are always going to be highs and lows. So, you ride out both the highs and the lows. I know one family that bought $50,000 in GE stock in the 1950s then rode that stock until about 2000 when it was worth 3,000,000 dollars or around that. So, that is something to think about. If you invested only $50,000 in GE in the 1950s you might have had $3,000,000 dollars by 2000. So, by looking at that long term investing sometimes pays off really big if you are willing to wait for it and are in the right stocks to begin with.

There are people who have done this kind of thing with Apple and Google Stocks as well as well as many others as long as they made a good choice. But generally speaking you want to be diversified into multiple sectors to hedge your bets in the stock market.

Also, the recovery has been 2/3 in the stock market from the 2008 recession. So, unless you held onto your house since 2008 you haven't seen the recovery likely at all if you weren't invested in the Stock market. Because the recovery has been 2/3 in the stock market and most of the rest in rising values in housing. However, the real income of the average family in the U.S. has dropped about 7.3% since 2000.

So, without investments of some kind the average family's  real income is continuing to drop for now.

Learning how to navigate and allow for risks to your investments will decide likely whether you can retire or not or even pay for your children's education through college. So, taking some courses in college to learn this might be useful in the long haul. Some learning regarding this now might possibly save both your life and your children's lives in the future, financially speaking.

But, generally speaking learning how not to panic but instead staying level headed through all the downturns because you have prepared literally for any eventuality is the best way to go as an investor.

No comments: