I see
Russia as a country in decline. It's a one-crop economy; two-thirds of
its exports are energy. It has a terrible demographic problem; the
number of Russians is shrinking. It has a huge health problem; the
average Russian male dies at about age 61. And it's got such enormous
corruption that it can't reform itself. So I think it's a country that's
seriously in decline.
Putin's adventurism, such as we've seen
in Ukraine, which has led to Western sanctions, cuts him off from the
sources of Western technology that they really need for modernisation
and he's turning Russia into China's gas station. So I'm very
pessimistic about the future of Russia.
But before you breathe a sigh of relief, consider Nye's caveat:
... sometimes declining countries are more risk-accepting and dangerous. Look at Austria and Hungary a century ago.
This is why so many people worry about a World War III out of Russia. Also, remember ISIS(ISIL) would not exist unless Putin and Iran had forced Assad to stay in power in Syria militarily.
Remember that ISIS Is a direct response to this wanton genocide of Sunnis in Syria and also a result of the Shia Government in Iraq. Without these two dynamics ISIS would not exist in it's present form.
So, one could make the argument successfully that Putin, and President Bush overthrowing Saddam Hussein in Iraq created ISIS which the whole world is having to deal with now.
Another argument could also be made that by killing Saddam Hussein and allowing Qaddhaffi to be killed also caused ISIS(ISIL).
The Middle East has been a mess for as long as we have histories of it whether western powers interfered there or not.
However, the western world has to learn that it's solutions for the Middle East will NEVER be the solutions that Middle Easterners create for themselves. We are presently learning this lesson the hard way.
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