Assad's first big Russia-backed campaign is not going well
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Syrian
leader Bashar al-Assad is launching his first major offensive since
Russia began its intervention on his behalf. Iran has also joined the
offensive, reportedly sending one of its largest ground forces to date,
including fighters from Hezbollah and Iraqi Shia militias. "The Syrian
regime has…
Vox.com
Assad's first big Russia-backed campaign is not going well
Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad is launching his first major
offensive since Russia began its intervention on his behalf. Iran has
also joined the offensive, reportedly sending one of its largest ground
forces to date, including fighters from Hezbollah and Iraqi Shia
militias.
But even with all that, Assad's campaign so far does not seem to be working, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War.
"The Syrian regime has not gained much terrain in the first week of
its large-scale ground offensive against rebel forces, despite support
from intensified Russian airstrikes and hundreds of Iranian proxy
reinforcements," Chris Kozak, a Syria research analyst at ISW, writes.
"Operations against the Syrian opposition will likely prove harder and
slower than anticipated by either Russia or Iran."
Russia's airstrikes and Iranian troops are, so far, not turning the tide for Assad
ISW, widely considered the best outside group in tracking shifts on
the ground in Syria, locates most of the offensive in rebel-held
territory in northwest Syria. That's the yellow patch in the red-circled
area on the below map — the heaviest site of Russian bombardment:
(Institute for the Study of War)
Yet Assad-allied forces, which began their campaign about a week ago, have so far made minimal gains, at best, in those areas.
"Confirmed reports indicate that pro-regime fighters have seized only
six villages and towns, while rebel forces repelled heavy attacks
against several key positions," Kozak writes. He illustrates this point
with a more granular map of the fighting in the area, which shows both
towns taken by the regime and those recaptured by the rebels:
(Institute for the Study of War)
Moreover, this assault has come at real costs for Assad.
"Regime forces suffered heavy losses in manpower and materiel in the
face of heavy rebel resistance," Kozak writes. "Free Syrian Army
(FSA)-affiliated rebels forces claimed to destroy at least twenty tanks
and armored vehicles as well as a helicopter gunship in a 'tank
massacre' on the first day of the offensive. ... Continued heavy
casualties may leave pro-regime forces vulnerable to a counterattack by
Syrian rebels."
It would seem that, at least so far, neither the Russian nor Iranian
deployments are substantial enough to fundamentally alter the balance of
power on the ground. That could certainly change, and perhaps Assad's
campaign will ultimately break through, but at the moment this is
looking like a failure for him and his allies.
This has costs for Russia as well. The Associated Press's
Vladimir Isachenkov points out, "Protracted Russian military action
without any visible gains by the Syrian army would quickly erode the
propaganda effect Putin has achieved with his bombing blitz."
Again, maybe things will change on the ground. But so far this is not looking good for Assad or his allies.
end quote from:
(Institute for the Study of War)
(Institute for the Study of War)
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