By Andrew Taylor
Associated Press
Posted:
02/23/2016 09:10:33 AM PST | Updated: 35 min. ago
WASHINGTON
(AP) -- The death of Justice Antonin Scalia and the vacancy on the
Supreme Court has touched off a partisan fight in Washington over who
should pick his replacement, President Barack Obama or his successor.
Here are some questions and answers about the battle:
------
What's at stake?
It's
difficult to overstate the significance of Scalia's death. The Court
had been split with four (generally) reliable conservatives on one side
and four liberal votes on the other, with Justice Anthony Kennedy often
the swing vote. Scalia's death takes away a crucial conservative vote.
If he's replaced by a liberal or moderate Obama nominee, the balance of
the court would change, with potentially enormous consequences for
issues like abortion, union rights, immigration, and congressional
redistricting.
------
What happens first?
It's up to Obama to nominate a replacement. He has said he will do so.
------ And then?
That's the big question.
Republicans controlling the Senate -- which must confirm any Obama
appointee before the individual is seated on the court -- say that the
decision is too important to be determined by a lame-duck president and
that voters in November's election should determine whether Scalia's
successor is replaced by a Republican or a Democrat.
Democrats counter that the voters did have a say when they re-elected Obama in 2012.
Republicans
also argue that the Senate's longstanding tradition is to not confirm
justices in an election year, and they point to a June 1992 Senate
speech by Vice President Joe Biden, then the Delaware senator, in which
he argued that then President George H.W. Bush should not name a
successor if a justice were to die or resign. Democrats note that in the
most recent corresponding example, in 1988, Ronald Reagan appointee
Anthony Kennedy was confirmed by a Democratic-controlled Senate. Senate
Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is adamant that "this vacancy
should not be filled until we have a new president."
------
So no vote?
Doesn't
sound like it. McConnell wrote the Lexington Herald-Leader in his home
state of Kentucky and said action in the Senate should be deferred until
after the election.
Still, the prospect of simply sitting on a
nomination all year seems to be making a few Republicans uncomfortable,
especially those up for re-election in November. Several of them have
offered conflicting comments. Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles
Grassley, who is responsible for confirmation hearings and a vote to
send any nominee to the full Senate, hasn't made it exactly clear what
he will do. Grassley also is up for re-election in November.
Precedent
holds that the committee could reject Obama's nomination outright or
follow the tradition of the failed nomination of Robert Bork or the
bitterly-fought 1991 battle over Justice Clarence Thomas and send it to
the full Senate without actually approving it.
------
What about the full Senate?
Even
if a nomination were to be brought to the floor, it would surely be
filibustered. That means Democrats, who control 46 votes, would have to
win over least 14 Republicans to bring any nominee up for an up-or-down
vote. Supreme Court nominations are one of the few remaining instances
in which filibusters have been uncommon in the Senate. Bork, for
instance, was defeated outright, while Thomas was confirmed with 52
votes -- well short of a filibuster-proof margin. In 2006, Democrats
forced a filibuster vote on Samuel Alito, though the outcome was never
in doubt. Once Alito easily cleared the 60-vote threshold, he was
confirmed by a 58-42 vote.
------
What did Obama do as a senator?
Obama opposed both Roberts and Alito. And Obama also voted to filibuster Alito, which he now regrets.
------
What's the bottom line?
The
overwhelming likelihood is a failed nomination, and the Senate probably
won't vote on it, either in the Judiciary Committee or on the floor.
------
What if this year's Supreme Court deadlocks on a case?
Under
the rules, the appellate court's ruling stands. That would mean lower
court decisions such as one overturning Obama's executive moves on
immigration would stand, while others, such as an appellate ruling
backing up public employee unions in their right to assess dues, would
be affirmed and go Obama's way. But court observers believe that Chief
Justice John Roberts would likely order any deadlocked case to be
reargued.
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