Just catching up? Iowa entrance polls for Democrats and Republicans | How does caucusing work? Trip Gabriel’s FAQ | Our Iowa results page
Cruz Wins G.O.P. Caucuses in Iowa, According to A.P.
DES MOINES — Senator
Ted Cruz of Texas prevailed in the Iowa caucuses on Monday, handing a
humbling setback to Donald J. Trump, according to The Associated Press.
Mr. Cruz, a Tea Party
favorite who built a strong operation in the state, stressed his
conservative credentials as he sought support from Iowans who lean to
the right, including Christian evangelicals.
His victory is a
deflating moment for Mr. Trump, the billionaire real estate mogul, whose
celebrity and showmanship have dominated the Republican race, but did
not translate into overwhelming support from caucusgoers.
And
In a final expression of his fondness for Iowa as he left the stage,
Mr. Trump said he planned to return in the future. "I think I might come
back and buy a farm."
Despite
the defeat, he still managed to brag about some big polls coming out of
New Hampshire and remind people that Hillary has "big problems."
Trump is doing a pretty remarkable job not demonstrating disappointment.
There ya go: "New Hampshire, we love New Hampshire."
First
time I've seen Trump out-Trumped. If he had come out onstage in the
middle of Rubio's speech, the networks would have cut away.
Trump is very predictably spinning this into a win.
"You people."
"I love you people, I love you people," Trump says.
Here we go.
It seems Trump is moments from coming on here, folks.
"We are going to be back," Rubio says, predicting he will be the nominee. "I will be in October and September of this year."
The beginning bit sounded almost Obama-esque to me. Reminiscent of "They said it couldn't be done" from 2008.
The question is, how much longer does Cruz give Rubio before trying to cut him off.
He is speaking now to voters beyond Iowa.
By
the way, this rhetoric you're hearing from Rubio right now — his
general election message of optimism and "growing the party" — was in
much shorter supply on the actual stump in recent weeks.
Sweeping, soaring biographical stuff coming from Rubio now. It is his moment to build some momentum.
Belatedy, Rubio congratulates Cruz. He also tips his hat to Huckabee, who dropped out. No word about Trump.
Trump led each of the last 10 polls by around 7 points, and wound up losing by 4 points. It's a big miss.
Not
to interrupt the flow, but this Democratic race could not be much
closer. Clinton leads by just six-tenths of a percent with 87 percent
counted.
By the way, Trump staff is now trying to corral the press doing media interviews in the general ballroom.
Also, let's note that once again the public polling was off.
Exactly,
Nick. And this approach is what I said earlier that Trump should have
done. And would have had he been a practiced candidate.
"Tonight
I thank you here in Iowa," Rubio says. "Tonight we have taken a first
step and an important step towards winning this election."
Rubio
is now smartly giving what sounds like a victory speech, for a
third-place finish, guaranteeing himself free airtime for a stump speech
by going onstage ahead of the actual winner.
More Rubio: "2016 is a referendum. It is a referendum on our identity as a people."
Nick, some in the establishment had thought of Trump as the best chance to stop Cruz. That shifts to Rubio.
"So
this is the moment they said would never happen," Rubio says in his
speech. "They told me we had no chance because my hair wasn't gray
enough and my boots were too high."
But
Iowa presents a fairly consolidated establishment vote, behind Rubio,
and two outsiders, Cruz and Trump, dividing the outrage vote.
For months there has been talk of too many establishment candidates allowing outsider candidates to clean up.
Cruz Supporters Watch Returns With Cheers and Taunts
DES
MOINES — Raucous cheers went up from Ted Cruz’s watch party at an event
center here as a screen showed him ahead by thousands of votes with
nearly all precincts reporting.
And then the taunting began.
“Smoked him!” a man shouted, at the sight of Donald J. Trump’s steep deficit.
“She’s so angry! She’s so angry!” said another, accusing a CNN anchor of having rooted for Mr. Trump.
In the back of the room, a small group of Cruz aides huddled, grinning.
“He can’t make that up,” Mr. Cruz’s spokesman, Rick Tyler, said quietly.
— MATT FLEGENHEIMER
Obviously
he'll have to be ready with an answer for how a campaign that promises
to make people sick of winning could lose Iowa to a senator that he
claims nobody likes.
The
last thing I'll say, and Alan you have heard me say this since
Saturday, but something has felt off about Trump since he returned to
the state on Saturday. I couldn't put my finger on it. But you could
feel the air coming out a bit.
And another one has dropped: Mike Huckabee suspends his campaign.
There were just large boos at Trump headquarters when CNN, which is on in the ballroom instead of Fox, called it for Cruz
Alex Conant, Rubio's spokesman has already been gloating on MSNBC: "We’re leaving Iowa very, very happy.”
Mike Huckabee Suspends His Campaign
Mike
Huckabee — the former governor of Arkansas, a Baptist preacher and host
of his own show on Fox News — won the Iowa caucuses in 2008.
But just eight years
later, Mr. Huckabee, 60, was unable to recreate the feat, and he
announced with a Twitter message that he was dropping out.
Mr. Huckabee, whose
book, “God, Guns, Grits, and Gravy,” embodied his folksy charm, once
again campaigned with Chuck Norris, the action star and martial artist
who had previously helped add a twist of whimsy and tough talk to his
other presidential bid. But this year, facing an angry, frustrated
Republican electorate, Mr. Huckabee’s wit and homey appeal failed to
electrify.
He was cut from the
main debate stage as his poll numbers stagnated, and was unable to
recreate that fabled “Huckamentum,” as it was cheekily dubbed in 2008.
Nonetheless, Mr.
Huckabee hoped to turn out voters in Iowa. He completed the “Full
Grassley” — visiting all of Iowa’s 99 counties, in a feat named after
the state’s senior senator, Charles E. Grassley — and made 150 stops in
the state in January alone, according to his campaign.
He also seemed to
resort to some stunts to try to get attention, taking reporters to a
shooting range and appearing with Donald J. Trump at an event in Des
Moines occurring at the same time as the most recent prime-time debate,
which Mr. Trump had boycotted (and for which Mr. Huckabee did not
qualify).
But none of that
seemed to matter to Iowa’s deeply conservative and religious voters, who
had helped lift the preacher to a top finish nearly a decade ago, but
failed to turn out for him Monday evening.
But
to Nate's point, we had all heard high turnout signaled Trump. It would
seem a lot of Trump supporters went to Rubio in the final days
The Trump team has gone radio silent. They had seemed buoyant at the caucus locations before.
NBC
and ABC have called it for Cruz, too. And did it even though the
turnout is currently at 155,000 votes with just 84 percent reporting —
far above the 122,000 from 2012.
Alan, I think Trump will sound utterly perplexed.
Fox is now calling it for Ted Cruz.
It
looks like Trump is getting closer to third place than second place
right now. Rubio is just 1.4 percentage points behind him.
Or does Trump train his sights on Marco Rubio, whose performance is the other big story of the night?
Does
Trump realize soon that he won't win and he comes out to say, "We did
better than expected," and leave town fast? That is what a traditional
candidate would do.
What do you think Trump says out there if Cruz's lead holds, Maggie?
Some big unanswered questions here, guys.
Hillary Clinton Backed by Women, Older Voters and Moderates
Hillary
Clinton was backed by women, older voters, moderates and Democrats,
according to polls conducted by Edison Research of voters as they
entered caucus locations throughout the state on Monday evening. She ran
strongly among voters looking for a candidate with the right experience
and one who can win in November. And she was preferred by voters whose
top issue was health care or the economy.
Senator Bernie
Sanders, for his part, received strong support from younger voters,
independents and first-time caucusgoers, who accounted for more than
four in 10 voters. But they made up a smaller share of the Democratic
electorate Monday than they did in 2008, when 57 percent of Democratic
caucus attendees were first-timers energized by the candidacy of Barack
Obama. Mr. Sanders was also widely supported by very liberal voters, who
accounted for nearly three in 10 caucusgoers.
Democratic caucus
voters are divided on the issue that they think is the most important
facing the country. About a third said the economy, while nearly as many
said health care. Both of these groups went for Mrs. Clinton. Just over
one in four voters said income inequality was the top issue — and they
went strongly for Mr. Sanders.
Mrs. Clinton was the
overwhelming choice of voters most looking for a candidate with the
right experience (cited by nearly three in 10 voters) and someone who
can win the general election (two in 10 voters). Mr. Sanders countered
with large support among those looking for someone who cares about
people like them and someone who is honest and trustworthy (each cited
by about one in four voters).
A majority of
Democratic caucusgoers said the next president should generally continue
Barack Obama’s policies, and they widely supported Mrs. Clinton. About a
third said the next president should change to more liberal policies —
and they backed Mr. Sanders by an even larger margin.
The broad majority said they made up their minds more than a month ago, and most of them backed Mrs. Clinton.
Maybe
winning the Iowa caucuses is not all it's cracked up to be. Huckabee
and Santorum — the last two winners on the Republican side — have a
combined 2.7 percent of the vote right now.
According
to the entrance polls, Trump really did do well among new voters. But
he finished in third place, with just 19 percent of the vote, among
people who have attended a caucus before.
It looks like Trump has succeeded in bringing out new voters, but they are not all in his corner.
The
Republican turnout is clearly on pace to shatter records. The vote
count is now at 110,000 — just shy of the 122,000 from 2012 — with just
62 percent of the precincts reporting. Turnout in completed counties is
47 percent higher than it was four years ago.
Martin O’Malley Is Said to Be Ending His Campaign
Martin O’Malley plans
to suspend his campaign Monday evening, after failing to pick up any
support in the Iowa caucuses, an aide to his campaign confirmed.
Mr. O’Malley, 53, the
former mayor of Baltimore and governor of Maryland, never seemed to gain
traction in the small Democratic field, failing the capture the
interest — let alone the hearts — of most voters. He found himself
outflanked by Hillary Clinton and her message of pragmatic competence,
as well as the chance for Democrats to make history by electing the
first female president, and also by Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont,
whose populist message of fighting the banks electrified the Democratic
base.
Even on a debate stage
winnowed down to just three candidates, Mr. O’Malley could not stand
out. Mr. Sanders seized much of the progressive enthusiasm Mr. O’Malley
was hoping to capture. And he often seemed as if he were running for a
vice presidential or cabinet slot, unwilling to really go after Mrs.
Clinton, which might have allowed him to harness the outside anger that
Mr. Sanders so ably channeled.
Mr. O’Malley tried to
highlight his relative youth by strumming his guitar in bars (and, once,
on Wall Street). He hoped to win over working-class white voters, but
in Iowa he failed to reach the 15 percent threshold in most of the
state’s precincts to be considered “viable,” and finished with less than
one percent of the vote.
Mr. O’Malley took out a
loan last year to help prop up his floundering campaign, and had
already stopped paying many of his senior and junior aides since moving
them to Iowa. On Sunday, his campaign announced that he was over
$500,000 in debt and had just $169,444 cash on hand.
— MAGGIE HABERMAN AND ASHLEY PARKER
From The A.P. count that we are monitoring, it looks like he got only five votes, with 69 percent of precincts reporting.
So it looks like Martin O'Malley is dropping out of the race.
We
are hearing that he will announce at at his caucus party tonight at
Wooly's in Des Moines that he is suspending his campaign. He is likely
to speak at 9:30 p.m. Central.
The
Democratic race is very close, but Clinton has had a slight edge the
entire night. And the outstanding counties aren't necessarily any better
for Sanders or Clinton.
O’Malley Reaches Viability and Gets a Delegate
INDIANOLA, Iowa — At
7:21 p.m., there were 18 people in the O’Malley corner, under the
threshold for viability. The group, standing beneath an antibullying
poster mounted on the wall, looked to the opposite side of the room,
where two undecided voters were being buttonholed by Betty Crawford, the
Clinton precinct captain. Jennifer Eaton, a lunch lady, was one of
them.
“The email thing
concerns me. The Benghazi thing concerns me,” she was saying. (“The
email thing has been all cleared up!” a member of the Clinton team
said.)
Ms. Eaton referred to
the “Benghazi movie that came up,” and said her husband was in the
military. “It’s a hot-button issue in our house.”
Margaret Vernon, of
Martin O’Malley’s camp, was now by her side. “That’s why you may want to
consider Martin O’Malley,” she said, smiling. “He doesn’t have that
baggage.”
A recount yielded 66
for Clinton, 55 for Sanders and 21 for O’Malley: 142 total. “We’re still
five people off,” said Chris Nelson, the caucus chairman, who was
gathered with the other precinct captains.
It turned out some of
those who voted did not register. At last, the final count was at hand.
Hillary Clinton, with 63 votes, was 10 ahead of Mr. Sanders. She
received five delegates to his four, and Mr. O’Malley eked out one.
An exodus ensued as voters grabbed their jackets and headed out, hoping to be home ahead of the impending snowstorm.
By 8 p.m., the room was almost completely deserted — democracy accomplished in an hour flat.
“It’s hard not to
win,” said Steve Rose, the Sanders captain. “But after Bernie leaves
office in eight years, O’Malley will be a real good candidate.”
At
the moment, it's pretty easy to imagine a scenario that few people
talked about in the run-up to the caucuses: a very high turnout, and a
Trump defeat.
There
are strong indications of a very high increase in Republican turnout.
Overall, turnout is up by 50 percent in the counties where 100 percent
of precincts are reporting.
Ben Carson Is Going Home, But Just for a Change of Clothes, His Campaign Says
As
the caucus results poured in, Ben Carson’s campaign wanted to set the
record straight: The retired neurosurgeon is not dropping out of the
race.
While most candidates are heading to New Hampshire from Iowa on Tuesday, Mr. Carson planned to go home to Florida.
Prognosticators
wondered if an exit strategy was in place, but Mr. Carson’s team said it
was actually a mission to get clean clothes.
“Contrary to false
media reports, Dr. Ben Carson is not suspending his presidential
campaign, which is stronger than ever,” Larry Ross, Mr. Carson’s
spokesman, said in a statement. “After spending 18 consecutive days on
the campaign trail, Dr. Carson needs to go home and get a fresh set of
clothes.”
Mr. Carson’s campaign
has been struggling after a brief surge to the top of the polls. Early
returns on Monday night showed him in fourth place.
With snow in the
forecast, Mr. Carson’s team said he was leaving Des Moines early to beat
the weather. The candidate expects to be back on the campaign trail on
Wednesday.
“We look forward to tonight’s caucus results and to meaningful debates in New Hampshire and South Carolina,” Mr. Ross said.
— ALAN RAPPEPORT
Trump
trails by only a fairly modest margin, but he has a basic problem: He's
not winning anywhere by a lot. That makes it hard to make up ground.
Iowa Democrats Divided by Income and Education
More affluent
Democrats broke strongly in Hillary Clinton’s favor, with a majority of
those in households making more than $100,000 a year supporting her over
Senator Bernie Sanders, according to polls of those entering caucus
sites conducted by Edison Research. Among those making under $50,000
annually, Mr. Sanders pulled in a majority of supporters.
Those without a
college education supported Mrs. Clinton by a wide margin; those who had
attended some college but had not earned a four-year degree were more
likely to back Mr. Sanders. Those with postgraduate educations were more
likely to support Mrs. Clinton.
Mr. Sanders won the
support of a majority of liberals, while Mrs. Clinton had the support of
moderates and conservatives by a much wider margin. Democrats who
described themselves as liberals make up about two-thirds of those
participating in the caucuses.
There's
a lot of vote left from Santorum counties, but most of our data
suggests that Ted Cruz is faring best in Santorum's best counties.
Rick Santorum, in Familiar Battle Sweater, Pleads for a 2012 Repeat
CLIVE,
Iowa — The fourth candidate to take the stage at this caucus, Rick
Santorum, pleaded with voters to repeat their decisions of four years
ago.
“Iowans, there’s no
vote in Iowa that’s a wasted vote,” he said, his voice occasionally
rising to a shout as he grasped the podium.
Clad in his signature
sweater vest that he wore to victory during the 2012 caucuses, he touted
his Iowa credentials, name-dropping Senator Charles E. Grassley and
mentioning that he was introduced by Iowa’s senior senator “at my 120th
Pizza Ranch,” the Midwestern restaurant chain that has become the
backdrop for many campaign stops. “That’s true! 120.” He later looked
for Iowa State football fans in the audience.
Mr. Santorum pitched
himself as a “fighter” and a “scrapper,” pointing to his record on
health savings accounts, and saying that he was the only one in the race
who had not gotten into attacks on any of his fellow candidates.
“Please shake this
caucus up,” he said as he wrapped up. “Please shake this race up. If
you’re happy for the food fight, keep it going.”
“Do what you did last time,” he said. “Give me a shot.”
Nate,
do you have a sense of whether the Santorum counties from 2012 might
break for Trump and if there are many of them outstanding?
Ben Carson Tells Caucus Supporters, ‘People Have Asked, “Is It Worth It?”’
CLIVE,
Iowa — The call for more candidates to speak had come about a half-hour
before Ben Carson strolled into the caucus site here. He quickly took
the stage.
“People have asked, ‘Is it worth it?’ ” Mr. Carson said with a smile. “No.”
He waited a beat. There was quick laughter, and then slightly awkward applause. He continued.
“Not if you’re doing it for yourself,” he said. “But the answer is yes if you’re doing it for others.”
Mr. Carson sounded
relaxed and spoke candidly. He detailed his reluctance to enter the
campaign, saying that he was looking forward to retiring, but that he
could not completely ignore the groundswell around.
“But then along came
the ‘run Ben run’ people, and the ‘draft Ben’ group and hundreds of
thousands of petitions, and I said maybe it will go away if I ignore
it,” he said. “But it didn’t, it kept growing. And I finally said,
‘Lord, you know this is not on my bucket list.’ ”
He paused. “But if you open the doors, I’ll walk through them.”
He spoke of his faith
and of his time in the medical field, joked about never having seen the
“Rocky” films, and thanked Iowans for the trust they had placed in him
by caucusing for him.
Mike Nason, the director of advance for the Carson campaign, confirmed a shift in travel plans: first reported by CNN Mr. Carson will not go straight to New Hampshire after the caucuses but will be going to Florida instead.
“It’s not like he’s
going home, he’s stopping back for 12 hours,” Mr. Nason said. Then, Mr.
Carson will go to Washington for the National Prayer Breakfast, then to
North Carolina and then to New Hampshire.
“He’s getting a change of clothes,” Mr. Nason said.
It
is still too early to get a firm grip on voter turnout, but the first
county to complete its count on the Republican side — rural Audubon
County — saw its turnout increase by 68 percent compared to that in
2012.
At One Caucus, a Call to Vote for Trump: ‘Vote for the Novelty’
MANCHESTER,
Iowa — Ted Shelly, a retired funeral director, spoke on Donald J.
Trump’s behalf before a packed high school gymnasium of 1,000 people
here at the Republican caucus of Delaware County. He used his speech to
try to convince people that Mr. Trump is, indeed, an abortion opponent.
That was the only issue addressed by Mr. Shelly, who began by describing
himself as “a Christian believer.” Once the timer dinged, signaling he
had to wrap it up, Mr. Shelly added, “Vote for the novelty!”
Some candidates —
including Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, former Gov. Jim Gilmore of
Virginia, Gov. John Kasich of Ohio and former Senator Rick Santorum of
Pennsylvania — did not have backers on hand to speak on their behalf.
Hi
folks — I'm writing to you from my spot on the floor of the ballroom at
the Sheraton in West Des Moines, where the crowd is beginning to filter
in for what they hope will be a Trump victory rally. A group of
reporters went with Mr. Trump to two caucus precincts. At one, he
crossed paths with Carly Fiorina and attempted to wave hello. At the
other, Rick Santorum slid by Mr. Trump unnoticed as they traded places
onstage.
‘I’ve Come Here Tonight to Ask You to Caucus for Me,’ Marco Rubio Says
CLIVE, Iowa — Arriving
45 minutes before the doors would close, Senator Marco Rubio worked his
way through a packed crowd at a caucus here, chatting with supporters
and posing for pictures.
“I will tell ya I’ve smiled for so many pictures, my lips are starting to crack,” Mr. Rubio joked with a small crowd.
Mr. Rubio led the crowd in the pledge of allegiance before delivering an abbreviated version of his stump speech.
“I’ve come here
tonight to ask you to caucus for me because the United States in 2016
has reached a turning point,” he said, after introducing his family to
the crowd. He told the story of his parents’ arrival from Cuba, an
oft-told tale from the campaign trail, while delivering the central
argument of his campaign.
He drew no contrasts
to the other Republican candidates, but received loud applause when he
warned of the possibility of a Democratic victory in November.
“Today we are on the
verge of being the first Americans who leave our children worse off than
ourselves,” he said. “And that is exactly what will happen if, God
forbid, a socialist like Bernie Sanders or someone who thinks she is
above the law like Hillary Clinton is elected the next president of the
United States.”
Mr. Rubio spoke for
about five minutes before leaving. As he left, he quickly flashed a
thumbs-up to his campaign team, standing just to the side of the stage.
We
are still waiting on some entrance polls on the Democratic side, but
reports on social media indicate some intense jockeying from both
Clinton and Sanders backers is going toward luring Martin O'Malley's
supporters. He was at three percent in the last poll.
Donald Trump Leads Among Those Concerned About Immigration
Donald J. Trump’s incendiary comments on immigration seem to have resonated with Republicans in Iowa who care about this issue.
Although only one in
nine caucusgoers over all selected immigration as their top issue
concern, a clear majority of Mr. Trump’s supporters identified this
issue as most important to them.
Among those focused on
immigration, Mr. Trump led his top two rivals handily, with a
two-to-one advantage over Senator Ted Cruz and a five-to-one advantage
over Senator Marco Rubio. The two senators sharply criticized each other
in recent debates for being untrustworthy on this issue.
David Jones, a professor at Baruch College, is a New York Times consultant.
Senator Tim Scott Expected to Back Marco Rubio
Senator
Tim Scott of South Carolina is expected to back Senator Marco Rubio of
Florida for president in the immediate aftermath of the Iowa caucuses,
according to three people familiar with his plans, who spoke on the
condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss them.
Mr. Scott, a
high-profile Republican leader in the first Southern primary state, may
help Mr. Rubio project an aura of momentum in the race as he seeks to
move ahead of the Republican pack in next week’s New Hampshire primary.
Mr. Rubio is scheduled
to appear at a town hall meeting in Exeter, N.H., on Tuesday night, but
he had not announced his plans for the rest of the day.
Mr. Scott has made
encouraging comments about Mr. Rubio’s campaign in the past, but he has
remained formally unaffiliated in the race. He is the lone black
Republican member of the Senate, and one of just two black lawmakers
currently serving in the chamber.
Representatives for Mr. Rubio’s campaign did not respond to numerous requests for comment.
While he has kept a
relatively low profile in the Senate, Mr. Scott hosted a series of
candidate forums in South Carolina for Republican presidential aspirants
last year, luring a number of hopefuls to the state for well-attended
events that co-starred the junior senator.
In an interview last
month shortly before the Republican presidential debate in North
Charleston, Mr. Scott insisted that he had not settled on Mr. Rubio. But
he acknowledged that they were close.
“Marco is probably one
of my favorite people in the Senate, but I’m looking for a president of
the United States,” he said, noting that he was paying close attention
to candidate performance and the issues they were championing
Asked if he liked what
he was hearing from Mr. Rubio, Mr. Scott said, “I do,” adding that the
Florida senator was “taking the right steps in the right direction.”
Our
colleague Trip Gabriel in Pella reports that Jim Gilmore, the
Republican candidate who has been shut out of most of the debates,
appears to be having a rough night.
"Would
anybody tonight like to speak for Jim Gilmore?" the precinct leader
said. With hundreds of the people in the gym, not one spoke up. "Very
well, moving along."
One
of the big questions tonight will be turnout, but we'll learn the
answer differently on both sides. The results you see for the Democrats
aren't raw vote tallies, the way they are reported for Republicans, but
state delegates. The Iowa Democrats will announce their actual turnout
later.
Early Results Show Voters Want a Candidate Who ‘Shares My Values’
According to early
results from a poll conducted by Edison Research of Iowa voters as they
entered caucus sites, four in 10 Republicans said that having a
candidate who “shares my values” was the quality that mattered most.
About one-quarter of Republicans said that bringing needed change was
the most important quality.
Slightly less popular
responses included the ability to win in November and “telling it like
it is.” Each of these responses was selected by about one in five
caucus attendees.
Among those caucusing
for Donald J. Trump, the most highly rated candidate quality, not
surprisingly, was “telling it like it is.” More than two-fifths of his
supporters selected this. Conversely, those selecting this quality make
up less than a tenth of the support for Senator Ted Cruz of Texas or
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida.
A majority of Iowans
caucusing for Mr. Cruz said that sharing their values was the quality
most influential to their candidate choice.
This same quality was
also important for supporters of Mr. Rubio, with about two-fifths of
them selecting this option. A roughly equal number of Mr. Rubio’s
supporters said that beating Democrats in November mattered most.
David Jones, a professor at Baruch College, is a New York Times consultant.
A
worrying stat for the Cruz camp: evangelicals are breaking evenly for
Trump and Cruz. Rubio is also performing well with that group.
Trump is running strong across most demographics except those who are "very conservative." They are falling for Cruz.
Some
new entrance polls are just in from Edison Research, and they look good
for Trump. More than 40 percent of caucusgoers were first-timers, and
participation is up from 2012.
In New Hampshire, Jeb Bush Laments About Rivals
MANCHESTER, N.H. — When Iowans headed to their local precincts to caucus, Jeb Bush was hundreds of miles away.
Mr. Bush has remained focused on New Hampshire, a state where he needs a top finish to help revive his stalled campaign.
But Iowa was not far
from his mind, even as he told voters here that “the reset has started
as of tonight,” and that on New Hampshire’s primary day next Tuesday, he
plans to “surprise the world.”
Turning to Iowa, Mr. Bush lamented about the Republican front-runner, Donald J. Trump.
“In Iowa, they’ve
decided perhaps that the front-running candidate — at least as it stands
right now — is someone who it’s all about him,” he said. “It’s all
about him, and insulting his way to the presidency is the organizing
principle.”
“Insulting women,
insulting Hispanics, calling for banning all Muslims as if that’s a
brilliant idea as we try to forge consensus on how we deal with ISIS,”
he continued. “Insulting the disabled — that is not leadership, that is
not what we need in Washington, D.C.”
Alluding to two of his
other Republican rivals, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and Senator Marco
Rubio of Florida, Mr. Bush also took a veiled swipe.
“The two other
candidates that are likely to emerge in Iowa are two people that are
backbenchers, who have never done anything of consequence in their
lives,” he said. “They’re gifted beyond belief, they can give a great
speech, but I think it’s time for us to recognize that maybe what we
need is someone who can lead. Someone who has a proven record.”
Mr. Bush is expecting a disappointing finish in Iowa, but he did seem to be a bit preoccupied with the state.
At one point, a voter
stood up to ask a question, and Mr. Bush said, “Are you going to caucus
for me?” Then, correcting himself, he added quickly: “I’m sorry! Wrong
state!”
Eyes on the Martin O’Malley Group as a Caucus Is Called to Order
INDIANOLA,
Iowa — Ten minutes before the doors closed, the O’Malley group counted
10 people in its corner. “We’re pretty realistic,” said Nicholas Webb,
31, a lawyer. “I came in pretty much knowing it was unlikely we’d get to
15 percent.”
His mother, Ellen
Webb, nodded. “I think they’re going to target us,” she said, looking
out at the larger groups of Clinton and Sanders supporters.
Both Webbs said they
would break for Hillary Clinton in the event their candidate is not
viable. And they were thinking about more complex caucus strategy, too:
Mr. Webb said he suspected that the Clinton camp could try to prop up
the group supporting Martin O’Malley to siphon delegates away from
Senator Bernie Sanders.
At least one voter
remained undecided. Jennifer Eaton said she still had not made up her
mind, as the clock ticked toward the 7 p.m. start.
“I’ll probably go with who I think can win against whoever the Republicans put up,” she said.
Ms. Eaton was
intimately familiar with the site of this caucus: She works as a lunch
lady in the cafeteria. Looking at the crowded tables, she said, “They’re
not going to put them back in the right spot!”
A glut of voters
arrived in the minutes before 7 p.m., and volunteers were furiously
sorting through registration papers. Shortly after 7, the chairman,
Chris Nelson, pacing the center of the cafeteria, rapped his hand on a
table and called the caucus to order.
“The eyes of the nation are on us tonight,” he said. “And the world, too, I might add.”
Moments later, the
count was announced: 137 eligible voters. So each candidate would
require 21 voters in his or her corner to remain viable. The O’Malley
supporters appeared uneasy.
Several
major media organizations are already reporting early entrance poll
data, but don't be too confident about them. The early entrance polls in
2012 showed Rick Santorum in third place. He won.
Donald Trump Turns Up for Caucus in Des Moines
Donald J. Trump and
his wife, Melania, stopped to sit in the front row at St. Francis of
Assisi Church in West Des Moines, arriving moments after the caucuses
there began at 7 p.m.
The church had what an
official told the crowd was an “unprecedented turnout.” Mr. Trump’s
aides took note of the crowded parking lots at precincts along the drive
to the church.
Mr. Trump’s campaign
manager, Corey Lewandowski, whispered to him about the crowds. What was
taking place was a “good sign,” Mr. Trump said.
People crowded around Mr. Trump for selfies as he made his way through the crowd.
Not to be deterred,
supporters of Senator Marco Rubio held signs with his name aloft. But
when Mr. Trump turned to wave at the crowd from the front row, people
let out a whoop.
Mr. Trump was not the
only candidate at the caucus site. “Carly!” a few caucusgoers called out
about 15 minutes into Mr. Trump’s visit. Carly Fiorina, the candidate
who frequently criticized him during the race, was off to the side of
the room. Several people cheered for her.
— MAGGIE HABERMAN
Passions in Pella Amid a Big Turnout
PELLA, Iowa —
Beginning at 5:30 p.m., as people arrived and checked in at tables in
the school cafeteria in Pella, it was quickly apparent many were
first-time caucusgoers, and it was going to be a big night. There was no
clear preference among the first-timers.
Mr. Cruz seemed to have an early edge in this socially conservative community, which in 2012 went for Rick Santorum.
Joel Merrill, 61, a
forklift mechanic who had never caucused before, said, “There are a
number of candidates I like, and one in particular I don’t like — Trump.
I’m going to go with Cruz.”
Mike Rottier, a
hardware store owner, said he had been leaning toward Senator Ted Cruz
but disliked his opposition to federal support of ethanol.
“I saw something on Facebook about Rubio’s background, how he came up poor. That sounds good,” he said.
Steve Latta, who works
for a farm machinery manufacturer, supported Mr. Trump. “He’s going to
at least try to stick up for America,” he said.
But John Ferrer, 36,
who writes for an education website, said he planned to vote “for the
non-Trump candidate,” without saying who. “A vote for Trump is a vote
for Babylon,” he said.
Jay Schelhaas, a
community college professor, said he liked Senator Marco Rubio’s and Mr.
Cruz’s performance in the last, Trump-less debate in Des Moines. “I’m
still up in the air between the two,” he said. “Listening to their
representatives tonight might make the difference.”
At 6:15, Mr. Spotten, the site chairman, said the influx was only beginning.
“In about 20 minutes, this place is going to get stupid,’’ Mr. Spotten said.
The
Carson campaign is not making a big deal about this itinerary. A
spokesman for Mr. Carson tells us: "He needs fresh clothes and then back
out Wednesday."
There
is a report that Ben Carson has no plans to head to New Hampshire or
South Carolina tomorrow. According to CNN's Chris Moody he will head
home to Florida for some rest and then go to Washington D.C. to attend
the National Prayer Breakfast, where he came to national prominence a
few years ago.
Hello
from Des Moines, everyone. After months of polls and speculation,
Iowans are finally caucusing and candidates are milling around the state
monitoring the action. Victory speeches and concession remarks are
being polished as we speak.
Where Persuasion Is Measured in Pizza
INDIANOLA,
Iowa — As a precinct captain for the first time, Steve Rose has
memorized talking points from the Sanders campaign and studied a math
sheet on viability counts (“paid for by Bernie 2016 — not the
billionaires”), his sights set on converting Martin O’Malley supporters
who may find themselves in need of a new candidate.
He arrived here with
other enticements, as well: Rice Krispies Treats, miniature cinnamon
buns and sandwiches from the local Hy-Vee supermarket. “This is Iowa, so
I brought some food and water to appeal to the basic needs,” said Mr.
Rose, an education professor at Simpson College. “We’ll be there for a
couple hours.”
Mr. Rose, whose wife,
Mary Jones, was a precinct captain for President Obama in 2008, ruefully
recalled losing out on some supporters because a rival campaign had
brought homemade sandwiches. The O’Malley precinct captains are his
neighbors, and their group was bringing a greeter, a role he had not
anticipated. “I’m going to ask my wife to be our greeter,” Mr. Rose
said. “She smiles better than I do.”
Margaret Vernon, 72,
the caucus secretary here, is a Martin O’Malley supporter, and her
husband, Jon, is the O’Malley precinct captain. She was enjoying the
idea that she may be the belle of the ball.
“I don’t know if he’ll be viable,” she said of her candidate. “The Clinton and Bernie people will be trying to win us over.”
Ms. Vernon, who
arrived early wearing an Obama ’08 sweatshirt, lives down the block from
Mr. Rose, who jogs by her house each day. The Clinton precinct captain,
Betty Crawford, attends her church.
Ms. Vernon said she
was already wary of her rivals’ tactics. “I heard some Hillary people
talking about if they should bring pizza,” Ms. Vernon said, with a hint
of suspicion in her voice. She paused. “I wouldn’t mind getting a piece
of pizza, but I’m probably going to go for Bernie.”
Democratic Precinct With 6 Voters in 2012 Expects 100 Tonight
INDIANOLA, Iowa — A
few hours before his first solo run as the chairman of an Iowa
presidential caucus on Monday, Chris Nelson was headed to the dentist.
He had placed strict restrictions on the appointment. “I don’t think I
can pull any teeth today because I don’t want to sit up there with a
drooling kind of look,” Mr. Nelson, 53, said, with a laugh.
In 2012, when he was a
co-chairman, only six voters showed up to Mr. Nelson’s precinct in this
city of 15,000, a bellwether spot where each of the three Democratic
presidential candidates has visited at least twice. This year, with a
competitive race, Mr. Nelson, who builds vending machines at a nearby
factory, was expecting up to 100.
His caucus, held in
the western wing of a bright cafeteria at Indianola High School, was
beginning to fill up when he arrived a few minutes before 6 p.m. Asked
if his caucus would involve less conflict than a Republican one, Mr.
Nelson, a supporter of Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, laughed for a
full five seconds. “I just hope everything goes smoothly,” he said.
Weather Unlikely to Affect Caucus Turnout
Snow and politics can be a volatile mix.
On Monday night, it appeared that a rough winter storm would, for the most part, spare the long-awaited caucuses.
The latest alert from
the National Weather Service projects that snow will sweep across
southern Iowa around midnight and head north on Tuesday. Accumulations
from five to 10 inches are expected.
The worst will
probably occur during the Tuesday morning commute, when snow could fall
at a rate of up to two inches per hour. Wind gusts could approach 35
miles per hour.
With such a grim forecast, campaigns were scrambling to adjust their plans to get to New Hampshire.
But there was no sign
of the brewing storm as Iowans headed to caucus after a sunny day with
temperatures hovering in the mid-40s.
Mark Stephenson, a
political strategist from Red Oak Strategic, noted that weather had
impeded voting in Iowa before. A tornado in southeastern Iowa in 2014
tamped down turnout on primary night.
“Weather won’t be a factor,” Mr. Stephenson said of Monday night’s turnout.
— ALAN RAPPEPORT
Canvassing for Bernie Sanders in Iowa
Video: By NICK CORASANITI
With just hours to go
before the caucus doors close, members of National Nurses United were
combing the streets in Des Moines for potential supporters for Senator
Bernie Sanders, knocking on doors, handing out literature and making
sure people knew the location of their precinct.
“It’s crunch time,” said Adriana Sanchez, 27, a nurse at the University of Chicago. “Every vote counts.”
“You want to get every
last vote,” added Genevieve Lewis, 39, a nurse at John H. Stroger Jr.
Hospital of Cook County in Illinois.
They had been out since 5:45 a.m., running on coffee and adrenaline.
The two nurses drove
to Iowa from the Chicago area to help raise support for Mr. Sanders, as
part of their union’s support of his candidacy.
“We speak from our own values when it comes to Bernie, so it just pretty much comes from the heart,” Ms. Lewis said.
Bernie Sanders Tops His Rivals in Use of Outside Money
So far, more super PAC money has been spent directly in support of Senator Sanders than for his Democratic Party rivals.
One High School, Six Republican Precincts
When Dan Spotten opens
the doors to Pella High School at 5:30 p.m. for the six Republican
precincts caucusing there, he intends to run a tight ship.
Mr. Spotten, the site
chairman, owns a sign-making company, and he made color-coded signs for
each precinct directing people to sign in by color, sit together by
color, fill out color-coded ballots and drop them into color-coded
buckets.
Speakers for each
candidate will begin allotted two-minute spiels after the Pledge of
Allegiance, an invocation and a few minutes of housekeeping.
“I am not fussing around,” Mr. Spotten said. “They’ve got two minutes. I’m going to line ’em up like cattle.”
He said the whole deal
— speakers, voting, counting, reporting the results to the state party
and announcing them to each precinct — should be done in an hour.
Mr. Spotten is
expecting a large turnout — more than the 1,260 who voted at the high
school four years ago. This time, they will be divided between two
gymnasiums: four precincts in one, two in another. The expected surge is
driven by Donald J. Trump, but not in the way one might expect. Mr.
Spotten predicted half of the caucus newcomers will support Mr. Trump,
and half will try to stop him.
The billionaire developer held a rally in Pella on Jan. 23 with his usual large crowd.
“Most people I know
are apolitical,” Mr. Spotten said. “They don’t care. With Trump involved
now, a lot people are caring, either they’re for Trump or against
Trump.”
Pella, an hour
southeast of Des Moines, is in conservative Marion County, where in
2012, Mitt Romney — the Republican Party’s eventual nominee — did not
even place in the top three.
It is a favorite
crossroads for candidates: Senator Marco Rubio and Mike Huckabee have
visited three times, and seven other Republicans visited once, including
Senator Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush (whose first question was from a woman
who shouted, “How’s Mom?”).
On Google, Donald Trump Lags in ‘How to Caucus for …’
As voters in Iowa
prepare to caucus, many of them are searching Google to find out “how to
caucus for …” their favored candidates.
Surprisingly, given
recent poll data showing Donald J. Trump in the lead, Mr. Trump did not
make the cut of the top five most searched Republican candidates in Iowa
with the phrase, according to the search data from Google Trends over
the past eight hours. Topping the list was Senator Ted Cruz, followed by
Senator Marco Rubio, Senator Rand Paul, Ben Carson and Gov. Chris
Christie.
The list of searches
of Democratic candidates with that phrase more closely aligned with the
polling numbers: Hillary Clinton leads the list, followed by Senator
Bernie Sanders and then Martin O’Malley.
A Breezy Last Day of Campaigning for the Clintons
With just hours until
caucusing begins, former President Bill Clinton dropped by a campaign
office in Ankeny to thank volunteers.
Asked how he thought
Hillary Clinton would do this evening, he said, “Based on the things
they’re saying here, we’re going to do fine,” and, “All you can do here
is don’t leave anything undone.”
Looking to New
Hampshire, which holds its primary on Feb. 9 and which is credited with
saving Mrs. Clinton’s 2008 primary after a third-place finish in Iowa,
Mr. Clinton said that if things go well here, his wife could bridge her
double-digit deficit to Senator Bernie Sanders in the Granite State. “It
depends on what happens in the next few days and how people react to
unfolding events,” Mr. Clinton said.
The Clintons had a
breezy afternoon, visiting coffee shops and campaign offices, posing for
photos with volunteers and thanking the old friends who have come to
Iowa to help with the last sprint to the caucuses.
Earlier Monday
morning, Mrs. Clinton and her daughter, Chelsea, dropped off doughnuts
at the campaign’s office in Des Moines. “I had to stop by and tell you
how much I appreciate your hard work,” Mrs. Clinton told them, according
to a pool report. “I thought I’d bring you some unhealthy snacks!”
The caucuses are
notoriously fickle and handed Mrs. Clinton a third-place finish in 2008,
but after a rally of 2,600 people on Sunday night in Des Moines and a
leisurely Monday morning, the candidate exuded a sense that she had done
all she could do and the rest was left to the people of Iowa.
Sarah Palin Stumps for Donald Trump in Final Push
Photo: Damon Winter/The New York Times; Video: By REUTERS
Sarah Palin helped
Donald J. Trump make his closing argument to Iowans on Monday, railing
against the Republican establishment and diminishing his opponents as
“more of the same.”
The former governor of
Alaska, who endorsed Mr. Trump last month, joined him at a rally in
Cedar Rapids and urged voters one last time to caucus for the
billionaire businessman.
Ms. Palin also lashed
out at lawmakers who have been critical of Mr. Trump, including
Representative Steve King, the Iowa congressman who backs Senator Ted
Cruz. She even went as far as to suggest that Mr. King has been “huffing
ethanol” in the cornfields.
Mr. Trump, who was
joined by his wife, Melania, and his daughter, Ivanka, thanked Iowans
for their support over the past few months in a final speech before the
caucuses were to begin.
Warned in advance that tomato-wielding protesters might be in the crowd, Mr. Trump told his fans to be ready.
“If you see somebody
getting ready to throw a tomato, knock the crap out of them,” Mr. Trump
said, promising to pay any legal fees they might incur.
— ALAN RAPPEPORT
Bernie Sanders Seeks to Temper Expectations for Caucuses
Photo: Todd Heisler/The New York Times; Video: By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Senator Bernie Sanders
of Vermont sought to temper expectations by stressing that losing the
caucus to Hillary Clinton would not be “the end of the world.”
Standing outside his
campaign headquarters in Des Moines, Mr. Sanders played down the
importance of Iowa, a majority white and liberal-leaning state that
seems tailor made for the senator’s grass-roots style of campaigning and
his progressive call for a political revolution led by the working
class.
“We have state after
state after state,” Mr. Sanders said as he stood in the doorway of the
campaign bus bearing his name. “This is a national campaign.
“Look, we are looking
forward to it. We want to win. We worked hard to win. But if she ends up
with two delegates more — there are many, many hundreds of delegates —
you tell me why that is the end of the world? I think she would say
exactly the same thing. It’s a long process.”
Mr. Sanders and his
campaign advisers also stressed that his campaign does not have a “super
PAC” and that its average donor contributes $27. “We are seeing just
today the reports that come in for super PACs,” Mr. Sanders said, “and
guess what? Shock of all shocks — Wall Street is pouring huge amounts of
money into Republican candidates and into Democratic candidates.”
Meanwhile, Mr.
Sanders’s campaign raised $20 million in January, an enormous amount
that backs up the campaign’s assertion that it will have enough money
for a long, hard-fought nominating fight.
Mr. Sanders also said
that he was proud of the campaign he ran in Iowa and that he was happy
to not have more pointedly attacked Mrs. Clinton. “I think not doing
ugly, negative ads is the right thing to do,” he said. “And you know
what I think? It’s good politics.”
Before he talked about
possibly losing, Mr. Sanders greeted volunteers inside his campaign
headquarters. Just before he arrived, dozens of people sat at computers
frantically making last-minute calls imploring people to vote for him.
Others were quickly typing up names of Sanders supporters in an effort
to increase his voter database. As Mr. Sanders walked in, the volunteers
cheered “Bernie! Bernie! Bernie!”
In a short speech,
Mr. Sanders said, as he had in the past, that a high voter turnout would
mean a win for him and that a low voter turnout would be a “struggle.”
The senator said as of Monday, he had spoken to about 70,000 people at
more than 100 town-hall-style meetings across Iowa.
Once outside, Mr.
Sanders told reporters he planned to continue campaigning until the
Democratic National Convention this summer. “After we go to New
Hampshire, we’re going to be in Nevada, then South Carolina, then dozens
of other states around this country,” he said. “We are in this to win
at the convention. We’re taking this all of the way.”
Iowa’s Republican Senators Weigh In on Donald Trump
As Iowans prepared to
head to the caucuses on Monday, the state’s Republican senators cast
some doubts over the conservative credentials of Donald J. Trump, who is
leading their party in the polls.
At a breakfast round
table hosted by Bloomberg Politics, Senator Joni Ernst said Mr. Trump’s
history of liberal positions raised questions about his true intentions.
“Just by judging from
what he said a few years ago, I would not have agreed that he was a
conservative,” Ms. Ernst said, pointing to the billionaire’s previous
views on abortion and taxes. “There’s no proof out there yet,” she said.
“That’s the unfortunate thing, that we don’t have a record that we can
judge him by.”
Ms. Ernst is staying
neutral in the race, but has in the past heaped praise on Senator Marco
Rubio, whose popularity has been on the upswing in Iowa.
Her colleague, Senator
Charles E. Grassley, also would not say if he thought Mr. Trump was a
true conservative. “You don’t have to worry about whether Trump is a
conservative or liberal at this point,” he said.
Mr. Grassley said that
he admired the impact that Mr. Trump was having on politics and that
any of the Republicans would be a better president than Hillary Clinton.
However, it was clear
that he differed with Mr. Trump on issues such as trade, where Mr. Trump
has discussed imposing taxes on imports from countries whose policies
clash with the United States’. Mr. Grassley said such a move could be
catastrophic, citing the Smoot-Hawley tariff passed under President
Herbert Hoover.
“You shot down
international trade because we protect, other countries protect. Then
you have a deep depression. And then you have Hitler come to power. And
then you have 60 million people murdered as a result of World War II. We
don’t want to go down that route again.”
—ALAN RAPPEPORT
How the Candidates Are Spending Caucus Day
The presidential
candidates will take their last selfies and shake just a few more
Iowans’ hands as they make a final dash across the state today before
waiting for results at their caucus night parties.
- Donald J. Trump will hold the most events Monday, with three rallies and a results party. He’s also dispatching his children, Ivanka, Donald Jr. and Eric, to different caucus locations that are around 30 minutes from each other.
- Senator Ted Cruz of Texas will hold two rallies and a watch party, and Senator Marco Rubio of Florida will visit three caucus sites before heading back to Des Moines for his watch party.
- Both Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont contented themselves with only holding watch parties on Monday. Mrs. Clinton went so far as to call her party a “Caucus Night Victory” party.
Most of the candidates will hold their election night parties in hotels in the Des Moines area.
But a couple of Republicans decided to skip out on the festivities.
Gov. John Kasich of Ohio and Jeb Bush
have already packed up, and are instead holding town-hall-style events
in New Hampshire, where the next chapter of this presidential race is
waiting to be written.
How a Republican Caucus Works
Video: By NICK CORASANITI
Students at Drake University in Des Moines demonstrate how a Republican caucus works.
How a Democratic Caucus Works
Video: By NICK CORASANITI
Students at Drake University in Des Moines demonstrate how a Democratic caucus works.
The Worst Day for Iowa Political Ads
The
2016 presidential primary season has brought an onslaught of
advertising in Iowa. Since the summer, when the campaigns began to go on
air in the state, there has been more than $70 million spent there on
political ads.
And while every day
has felt like an inundation of political ads unlike anything ever felt
before, one day stands out as the worst: Jan. 28, 2016.
On this day, according
to data analyzed by Deep Root Analytics, there were 6,834 total ads
played in the state, 1,684 of which were in the Des Moines region alone.
Early morning viewers
on WHO, the local NBC affiliate, saw a heavy rotation of ads from
Senator Bernie Sanders, while evening viewers on WOI, the ABC affiliate,
were greeted with ads run by the Cruz campaign.
Here’s a look at that day in the life of the Iowa TV viewer across five networks, as analyzed by Deep Root.
January 28: the worst day for Iowa TV viewers. 6,834 political ads aired, 1,684 in Des Moines. Via @DeepRootX pic.twitter.com/nly7mzH4Z0— Nick Corasaniti (@NYTnickc) February 1, 2016
Experience the 2016 Campaign in Virtual Reality
Check out our virtual reality film, capturing footage of the candidates and perhaps the best part of their events: the crowds.
Watch: Why Iowa Matters
Photo: Stephen Crowley/The New York Times; Video: By DEBORAH ACOSTA and BEN LAFFIN
In Iowa, Voters on the Edges May Set Tone for Primaries
Voters on the ideological edges, who
dominate both parties in Iowa, have made Senator Bernie Sanders, Donald
J. Trump and Senator Ted Cruz the standard-bearers of the left and the
right.
An Iowa Caucus FAQ From Our Man in Iowa
Q. With all the
hullabaloo that began a full year ago, Iowa must be sending lots of
delegates to the national nominating conventions in July?
Of course not. It’s a
tiny state, in terms of population. Democrats are electing 44 out of
4,763 delegates to their convention in Philadelphia. The Republicans are
choosing 30 out of 2,472 delegates to their national convention in
Cleveland.
You have a choice of
how to interpret that: The caucuses are much ado about very little. Or,
because these are the first votes cast, there is a lot at stake in terms
of popular momentum, news media attention and donor love.
Our Man in Iowa: How the Iowa Caucuses Work
We sent our reporter Trip Gabriel to live in Iowa. Now it is caucuses day.
Hillary Clinton Campaign Buys Caucus Day Takeover of Des Moines Register Home Page
As
Iowa voters prepare to caucus Monday, they will not be lacking
information about the location of their caucus sites, what time to go or
the candidates’ platforms. They have been inundated for months by
retail politics and a blitz of television advertising, not to mention
thousands of digital ads.
But on the morning of
the caucuses, the Clinton campaign bought one of the prime digital
advertising spots in Iowa: a home page takeover of the Des Moines
Register.
On caucus day, the @HillaryClinton team buys the Des Moines Register homepage takeover ad: pic.twitter.com/fSlsyYczVB— Nick Corasaniti (@NYTnickc) February 1, 2016
Visitors to the
website of Iowa’s largest newspaper will first be greeted with a nearly
full-window ad featuring Mrs. Clinton with a quote from the paper’s
endorsement of her last week. It links to the “find your caucus” part
of her campaign’s website.
Democrats Using Apps to Monitor Caucuses and Aid Teams
There
are 1,681 Democratic caucuses taking place across Iowa Monday night,
and the Clinton and Sanders campaigns will be monitoring them all in
real time with custom smartphone apps.
As Iowans participate
in the complex process of the Democratic caucus, the campaigns will be
gathering data on turnout, voters’ first preference, candidate viability
and the eventual final tally of both voters and delegate count
throughout the night. They also will have the ability to communicate
with their precinct chairmen while the caucuses are happening to give
them instructions from headquarters.
The Sanders app, built
by a handful of campaign staff developers marshaling their army of
programming volunteers, has three different sources of data. They will
used the system. set up by Microsoft, which is handling the reporting of
caucus results on both sides, to get results as they come in. But
they’ve also trained precinct chairmen in every caucus location to
report total turnout and caucus numbers as soon as they happen. And
they’ve included a crowd-source option, so any Sanders volunteer or
supporter can do his or her own count and upload it.
At Sanders
headquarters, the data team will be watching the stream through a custom
built application, and will be able to give marching orders to precinct
chairmen based on what they’re seeing, like messaging or specific
arguments to present when a group is not doing well at a caucus.
The Clinton campaign has a similar app, as BuzzFeed News reported, that it will use to track how Mr. O’Malley’s supporters are moving throughout the caucuses.
No comments:
Post a Comment