February 2, 2016
The conventional wisdom got set in stone long before all the GOP's votes had been counted in Iowa Monday night: Donald Trump fell flat on his face. Marco Rubio bounded to the head of the mainstream Republican pack. And Ted Cruz blew it out of the water with a strong first-place showing.
I'll give Trump his humiliation and Rubio his glory. But Cruz? I'm sorry, but no laurels for him. He remains a deeply unattractive candidate with very little mainstream appeal. He's hated by just about every elected member of his party. His positions on the issues place him on the GOP's far-right flank. And on the stump he manages to come off as a shrill, self-aggrandizing, sanctimonious phony.
But wait — doesn't Cruz's victory in Iowa belie everything I just said? He showed he's a winner!
No, he didn't. He showed he's a winner in Iowa. Just as Mike Huckabee did in 2008, and Rick Santorum in 2012. Did anyone consider them frontrunners for the nomination heading into New Hampshire? Of course not, because they weren't. Huckabee went on to carry eight states, while Santorum carried 11. Not bad. But not even close to cinching the nomination.
Will Cruz do as well? It's hard to say, since the polls will shift somewhat coming out of Iowa. But at the moment, Cruz is running a distant second to Trump in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada — and that's without factoring in the surge of energy and momentum (and spike in money and endorsements) the Rubio campaign is going to experience over the next week.