Saturday, November 30, 2024

Surprise attack shatters illusion of Assad's grip on Syria

If Putin hadn't already lost hundreds of thousands of soldiers in Ukraine he might have come to the aid of Assad. But, rebel soldiers (supported by Turkey) may finally take Assad out.

However, don't underestimate how important a warm water port is to Putin that he has through Assad in Syria. Putin might still send troops or fighter planes or even an aircraft carrier to support Assad yet?

Another front in a potential world war III starting now?

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Surprise attack shatters illusion of Assad's grip on Syria

 

a Little Rain is coming up from the South: Must be a remnant of a pineapple express coming from this direction

However, I don't  think it could do much and likely won't even get as far north as Santa Cruz but we will see. It was sunny and about 70 degrees today here on the coast and likely warmer inland but then the clouds started to come in from the south and my wife said it looked like rain. Then I looked at KSBW Radar and sure enough rain clouds (though minor) were coming up from the south likely hitting from San Luis Obsipo north along the coast. So far, just looks like rain clouds and that's it but maybe a few drops might fall? We will see.

Trump picks Charles Kushner, Jared Kushner's father, as ambassador to France

This is a very strange pick even for Trump. This is Trump's daughter's husbands father who was in prison when Trump was president last. I think Trump might have pardoned him or something and now he is Ambassador to France? I'm sure the French will be insulted by this but maybe Trump doesn't like France to begin with?  Very very strange any way you look at this.

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Trump picks Charles Kushner, Jared Kushner's father, as ambassador to France

 

Troop Deaths and Injuries in Ukraine War Near 500,000, U.S. Officials Say(this was 2023) a friend says it's now 800,000 deaths so far

The total now (November 2024) includes both Ukrainian and Russian Losses which now appears to be 800,000.  In 2023 it was 500,000 so many more deaths these days and ever increasing now with drones and missiles and MIRVs being used on innocent populaces in both Ukraine and Russia.

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https://www.congress.gov/118/meeting/house/116768/documents/HHRG-118-ZS00-20240130-SD002.pdf

 Ukraine War Causalities Near Half a Million, U.S. Officials Say”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-
casualties.html

Troop Deaths and Injuries in Ukraine War Near 500,000,
U.S. Officials Say

Ukraine and Russia have lost a staggering number of troops as Kyiv’s counteroffensive
drags on. A lack of rapid medical care has added to the toll.

The total number of Ukrainian and Russian troops killed or wounded since the war in
Ukraine began 18 months ago is nearing 500,000, U.S. officials said, a staggering toll as
Russia assaults its next-door neighbor and tries to seize more territory.

The officials cautioned that casualty figures remained difficult to estimate because Moscow
is believed to routinely undercount its war dead and injured, and Kyiv does not disclose
official figures. But they said the slaughter intensified this year in eastern Ukraine and has
continued at a steady clip as a nearly three-month-old counteroffensive drags on.

Russia’s military casualties, the officials said, are approaching 300,000. The number
includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops. The
Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000
killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.

But Russians outnumber Ukrainians on the battlefield almost three to one, and Russia has
a larger population from which to replenish its ranks.

Ukraine has around 500,000 troops, including active-duty, reserve and paramilitary
troops,
according to analysts. By contrast, Russia has almost triple that number, with
1,330,000 active-duty, reserve and paramilitary troops most of the latter from the
Wagner Group.

The Biden administration’s
last public estimate of casualties came in November, when Gen.
Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that more than 100,000
troops on each side had been killed or wounded since the war began in February 2022. At
the time, officials said privately that the numbers were closer to 120,000 killed and
wounded.

But that number soared in the winter and spring, as the two countries turned the eastern
city of Bakhmut into a killing field. Hundreds of troops were killed or injured a day for
many weeks, U.S. officials said. The Russians took heavy casualties, but so too did the
Ukrainians as they tried to hold every inch of ground before losing the city in May.

The opening weeks of Kyiv’s counteroffensive this summer were particularly difficult for
Ukraine. In the early phase, Western-trained Ukrainian troops struggled to employ
“combined arms maneuvers” a method of fighting in which infantry, armor and artillery
are used together in synchronized attacks.

Ukrainian troops initially tried to break through dug-in Russian lines with
mechanized combined arms formations. Equipped with advanced
American weapons, the Ukrainians nonetheless became bogged down in
dense Russian minefields under constant fire from artillery and
helicopter gunships.

In the first two weeks of the counteroffensive,
as much as 20 percent of the
weaponry
Ukraine sent to the battlefield was damaged or destroyed, according to U.S. and
European officials. The losses included some of the formidable Western fighting machines
tanks and armored personnel carriers that the Ukrainians were counting on to beat
back the Russians.

More significantly, thousands of troops were killed or wounded, officials said.

A senior U.S. official acknowledged the high number of Ukrainian casualties but said
combined arms is “very, very hard.” He added that in recent days, Ukrainian troops have
begun to punch through initial rings of Russian defenses.

In recent weeks, Ukraine has shifted its battlefield tactics, returning to its old ways of
wearing down Russian forces with artillery and long-range missiles instead of plunging into
minefields under fire.

American officials are worried that Ukraine’s adjustments will race through precious
ammunition supplies, which could benefit President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and
disadvantage Ukraine in a war of attrition. But Ukrainian commanders decided the pivot
reduced casualties and preserved their frontline fighting force.

American officials say they fear that Ukraine has become casualty averse, one reason it has
been cautious about pressing ahead with the counteroffensive. Almost any big push
against dug-in Russian defenders protected by minefields would result in huge numbers of
losses.

In just a year and a half, Ukraine’s military deaths have already surpassed the number of
American troops who died during the nearly two decades U.S. units were in Vietnam
(roughly 58,000) and about equal the number of Afghan security forces killed over the
entire war in Afghanistan, from 2001 to 2021 (
around 69,000).
The number of dead and wounded reflects the amount of lethal munitions being expended
by both sides. Thousands of rounds of artillery are fired every week, tanks batter buildings,
land mines are everywhere and drones hover overhead picking off troops below. When
close combat does occur, it resembles the battles of World War I: brutal and often taking
place in trenches.

The numbers also point to a lack of rapid medical care on the frontline. Wounded soldiers
are increasingly hard to evacuate given how much artillery and gunfire bookend each
engagement. Unlike the U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, where American forces strictly
adhered to evacuating casualties within an hour to a well-stocked medical facility, there is
no such capability in Ukraine.

Instead, injured troops are often thrown into any vehicle available or leave the front on
foot. In some cases, the wounded and dead are left on the battlefield, because medics are
unable to reach them. Hospitals and aid stations are often overwhelmed.

And across Ukraine, in big cities and rural villages, almost everyone knows a family that
has lost someone in the fighting. Dry flowers from funerals litter quiet roads, and
graveyards are filling up in every corner of the country.

The estimated figures for Ukraine and Russia are based on satellite imagery,
communication intercepts, social media and news media dispatches from reporters in the
country, as well as official reporting from both governments. Estimates vary, even within
the U.S. government.

According to
Pentagon documents leaked in the spring, Russia had suffered 189,500 to
223,000 casualties, including up to 43,000 killed in action. One document said that as of
February, Ukraine had suffered 124,500 to 131,000 casualties, with as many as 17,500
killed in action.

While several U.S. officials and one former senior Ukrainian official said
about 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers had died in the conflict so far, other
American officials said the number could be lower.

The estimates vary so widely partly because of Ukraine’s reluctance to disclose its wartime
losses even to the American government. U.S. intelligence analysts have also spent much
more time focusing on Russian casualties than those of Ukraine, their ally.

Russia analysts say the loss of life is unlikely to deter Mr. Putin. He has no political
opposition at home and has framed the war as the kind of struggle the country faced
during World War II, when more than eight million Soviet troops died. U.S. officials have
said they believe that Mr. Putin can sustain hundreds of thousands of casualties in Ukraine,
although higher numbers could cut into his political support.

While Mr. Putin appears somewhat reluctant to initiate a widespread mobilization, he has
raised the upper age limit for men eligible to be conscripted into the army. And should
Russia decide to mobilize more people, its larger population could quickly overwhelm
Ukrainian reserves of manpower.
The troop deaths could have a greater impact for Ukraine in a war that is far from over.
And while combatants are dying in droves, the civilians caught between the guns have
died in the thousands while millions have been displaced.

“These are people,” said Evelyn Farkas, a former top Pentagon official for Ukraine who is
now the executive director of the McCain Institute.

“Ukraine is a democracy, so the loss of lives could have greater political
impact,” Dr. Farkas said. “But even in an autocracy, Vladimir Putin knows
that public sentiment can make a difference.”

“All the beautiful sentiments in the world weigh less than a single lovely action.” – James Russell Lowell

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“All the beautiful sentiments in the world weigh less than a single lovely action.” – James Russell Lowell 

What to know about sudden rebel gains in Syria’s 13-year war and why it matters

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What to know about sudden rebel gains in Syria’s 13-year war and why it matters

I was staying in Kaanapali next to Lahaina on Maui in Hawaii in April of this year visiting there

We had wanted to go to Kauai and Maui in October of 2023 but couldn't because of the Lahaina fire the summer of 2023. So, we went to Kauai since we could move our reservations forward around 6 months so we did for Maui.

But, nothing prepared us for the loss of Lahaina which is the most historic town on Maui which goes back to the 1800s with People visiting there on ships from all over the world then. So, the loss of Lahaina really isn't replaceable for anyone who knows what Lahaina was historically to Maui and to all the Islands. In some ways it's almost like a local Washington DC was lost as far as the Islands are concerned because the cultural loss is so great.

But, nothing prepared people who owned houses for just how disastrous this would be for them. Rebuilding costs are OUT OF THIS WORLD because building materials mostly come from Mainland U.S. and shipping and general costs make this cost prohibitive. I suppose people could rebuild their own homes but since it's expensive to live there compared to California how does one finanically support oneself while rebuilding their home in Lahaina. 

And even if you succeeded in rebuilding your home maybe almost no one else could rebuild and what do you have? You have a home in the middle of a fire Wasteland. That's what you would have.

So, when I was there Bezos had built low income housing maybe 100 or more units for people to live in temporarily or permanently, especially for people who had lost their homes in the fire.

So, is there really a solution for Lahaina? I'm thinking Lahaina is a bridge too far because of building costs for most of the people who lived there before and who owned businesses that will never reopen again.

So, this is likely very sad but true. Lahaina is likely gone forever now.

Over a year after Lahaina fires, Native Hawaiian homeowners hit another breaking point

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Over a year after Lahaina fires, Native Hawaiian homeowners hit another breaking point

Trump's former FDA chief says RFK Jr.'s HHS agenda would 'cost lives in this country'

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Trump's former FDA chief says RFK Jr.'s HHS agenda would 'cost lives in this country'

 

If you are driving through the snow it's important to be prepared

 What do you need in case you get stuck in the snow. Often it is an innocent mistake because you don't read or see the latest weather report for your area because you are preoccupied with something else. My ex-wife did this recently and was trying to get from Mt. Shasta to Yreka when the snow on Interstate 5 got bad so she found herself in a 12 foot deep snow drift and then a snowplow covered her van up even more. She was stuck there from 12 to 24 hours before she dug herself out. However, knowing her she would be prepared for something like this because she lives up in the mountains and has for years now.

However, many people living in cities where the weather might be nice or where they don't deal with snow that much might not be prepared for these kinds of events. For example, in California where people often live in places like San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego or even Sacramento they might not ever deal with snow really at all. But, if you get on Interstate 80 and go to Reno you can easily get stuck. I have had to go into 4 wheel drive many times going or coming from Lake Tahoe for example, and many many more times had to go into 4 wheel drive going from Redding to Mt. Shasta or from Mt. Shasta to Yreka or Ashland Oregon over the Mt. Ashland Pass.

What you actually need is a down sleeping bag (to stay warm) a full tank of Gas (this is really important because you might need your heater in your vehicle and you need gas to keep your heater running. You need Water (because you don't want to drink dirty or yellow snow) and a friend of mine says "Snickers Bars" but she is from the East Coast where colder weather this time of year is the norm and where many many people are snowed in right now from Lake Effect Snow.

Granola Bars are not usually perishable so I would take some protein Bars with you too to keep you going. Another thing you might find useful is a small shovel to dig your car out after a snowplow drives by and buries your car.

I can remember one time the only way I could even find my car which then in college was a 1966 VW Bug was the very tip of the radio Aerial which is all I could find of my car then. So, being observant often allows you to survive things in the snow too.

So, basically you need warm clothes, snow boots (for snow over 1 foot deep) and you might even take snow shoes for walking on top of really deep snow. If you have ever been in snow 10 feet deep you really need snow shoes and if it is powder snow you likely aren't going anywhere even then even with snow shoes until the sun hits that snow and puts a crust on it where you can stand on it even with snow shoes.

Then driving in the snow is a whole other thing. If you aren't an experienced snow driver basically you shouldn't be doing it. For example, you don't ever use your brakes driving on snow or ice unless you want to die soon. You might downshift your car going downhill but you never use your brakes only your engine to slow you down or you might spin off the road entirely and that would be it.

So, being prepared for winter weather is really important always. Because you never know when things could get difficult. So, Be prepared so you can live to see another day.

Syrian insurgents storm Aleppo, raising prospect of wider Mideast conflict

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Syrian insurgents storm Aleppo, raising prospect of wider Mideast conflict


 

The Craziness of Syria

Turkey wants to depose Assad and so supports Syrian Rebels but doesn't like the Kurds. The Kurds are supported by U.S. Troops and the U.S. Government. Putin and Russia supports Assad. Turkey is a member of NATO.

Does this sound like an Accident waiting to happen for the U.S. and the world  or not?

What’s happening in Syria? Here’s what you need to know