Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Ebola Deaths 7857? However, if only 30% of cases are reported then total is 40,000?

So, the reported cases are 20,000? Yes.

However, it is also reported that only 30 percent of the actual cases are reported because people who aren't taken to the hospital aren't treated. And since only the top 30% of cases are actually treated that means that the total number of cases both reported and not reported is far more than 65,000.

Now, if you take the 45,000 plus more cases (than the 30% or 20,000) and consider that it is also reported that Ebola deaths when not taken to the hospital are at around 70% then you can say that 31,500 have died of those 45,000 not taken to the hospital.

So, if you add 7857 to approximately 31,500 you get 39, 357 or rounded off 40,000 people so far have died which is much more realistic than 7857 if you are actually on the ground in West Africa in real time.

I can see why they only report the 30% however, because they cannot know for sure how many cases there actually are nor can they know how many actually die.

However, the estimate of 30% being what they actually have to report is likely accurate to a degree. However, even that could be plus or minus 10,000 or more people both in cases and in deaths regarding the 70% that are not reported who never make it to a hospital or a doctor ever.

 
 


 

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