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Could Congress go from bad to worse after election?
updated 6:53 PM EDT, Fri June 8, 2012
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Partisan bickering likely to continue after elections
- Health care, economy remain wedge issues
- Senate power shift could happen after 2012 election
Things could get even uglier in 2013.
With a third of the
Senate and every seat in the House up for election this year, each side
is already bragging about how likely it is they will win back or take
over the next Congress.
But if the past three
years are any indicator, no matter if the Republicans or Democrats
control the House or Senate -- or both -- gridlock, brinkmanship and
stalemate could continue to plague the next president and frustrate the
American electorate.
The ongoing back and forth
Friday between the White House and Republican leadership over exactly
who is at fault for the weak economy offers a glimpse into what's in
store.
"One of the things that
people get so frustrated about is that instead of actually talking about
what would help, we get wrapped up in these political games. That's
what we need to put an end to," President Barack Obama said on Friday, a
day when politicos on both sides of the aisle played the blame game
over the country's fiscal troubles.
Voters have been clear in expressing their displeasure with Congress, whose approval ratings -- currently only 15% of Americans polled think Congress is doing a good job -- have been in the basement for much of the past few years. And it doesn't stop there.
Just look at, for instance, Congress' work habits.
Obama: Economy 'is not doing fine'
Romney: Obama not up to the task
The Republican-controlled
House's frequent election-year recesses do little to clear the mountain
of legislative work off their plates and have rankled such Democratic
colleagues as House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-California.
"Instead of recessing
yet again, the House should remain at work and pass critical legislation
that will create jobs for the middle class that will actually be signed
into law. Republicans must not run out the clock on the economy,"
Pelosi wrote in a letter to House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, this
week, adding that the upcoming recess is the ninth weeklong break this
year.
Whether President Obama
or Republican Mitt Romney occupies the Oval Office next year, both men
are facing an indigestion-inducing plate full of domestic problems.
Either one could, for
instance, have to preside over a dramatic overhaul of the health care
reform law if the Supreme Court strikes down the individual coverage
mandate as unconstitutional this month. The original law passed in 2010
without a single Republican vote in the House or the Senate.
The backlog of bills
that have passed in one chamber but are in limbo in another include the
hotly debated transportation bill. Many House Republicans want any deal
on the transportation construction measure to include approval of the
Keystone XL oil pipeline.
In the Senate, both parties are at loggerheads on the best way to address mushrooming student loan rates.
If the balance of power
in the Senate shifts to the Republicans, as some political analysts
expect, or Democrats and Republican end up with a near equal number of
seats, partisan gridlock could become even worse.
Both the Cook Political Report and the Rothenberg Political Report
suggest that at least two to four Senate seats are in play, including
open seats in the battleground states of Virginia and Wisconsin. Seats
in Massachusetts, Nevada, New Mexico and Maine are also competitive.
"You can expect these
bitter times to continue," said Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at the
Brookings Institution and co-author of the book "It's Even Worse Than It
Looks: How the American Constitutional System Collided With the New
Politics of Extremism."
It's little wonder why.
A new Pew Research Center study found
that the nation is more politically polarized than it has been in the
past 25 years and "the values gap between Republicans and Democrats is
now greater than gender, age, race or class divides."
So, there's little
chance of compromise on solutions for shoring up the ailing economy and
stanching job losses as the country braces for the impact of more than
$1 trillion in mandatory budget cuts set to kick in next year.
Should Obama win
re-election, he'll be a second-term president facing a narrow window to
accomplish policy goals before he enters the lame duck phase of his
office.
"If president Obama is
re-elected he will have to work with a Republican Senate to define his
legacy," said Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of The Rothenberg Political
Report. Obama's "big opportunity will be 2013."
That's the same year
sequestration, massive mandatory across the board budget cuts, are
triggered as part of a congressional deal that allowed Obama to raise
the debt ceiling. The large defense budget, which many Republican
lawmakers defend as necessary to maintain, will face substantial cuts.
Ironically, Obama may have to take a harder, more partisan line in order to get his agenda passed, Mann said.
"It's his second term.
The country is facing serious problems," Mann said. "If the Republicans
are playing an opposition game I can't imagine he can peacefully engage
in constructive negotiations with (Republicans). He would find the same
problem he faces today."
Things aren't likely to go much easier for Romney.
If Romney should win the
general election and his party maintains control of the House and ekes
out a Senate majority, the newly minted president may still face some
political headaches. Candidates down ballot may get a boost from a
Romney win, but it is unlikely his party will net the 60 seats needed
for a filibuster-proof Senate majority.
He'll also face intense pressure from his party to keep his campaign promises and steer clear of compromise.
"If Romney is elected
he'll have a brief honeymoon period," said Larry Sabato, director of the
University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "In this polarized era I
see no reason for optimism there.
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http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/08/politics/congress-worse-election/index.html
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