The problem with Syria right now is primarily a humanitarian one. However, this problem likely will go on for at least 20 to 30 years because this is a proxy war. The primary reason this likely will never end sort of like the Palestinian and Israel ongoing crisis since World War II is I would say Russia's position. Even Iran is becoming scared at the dynamics towards a real bloody war in Iran and is agreeing to a nuclear peace agreement with the U.S., Europe, Canada and other participating nations.
So, the humanitarian crisis likely will be an ongoing one for everyone living there. However, the ones who are Sunni who leave the country won't starve to death as much and likely will be taken care of by humanitarian groups from all nations outside of Syria.
However, the other thing that is true because of Russia's present position the likelihood of Al Qaeda staying there also and growing stronger because of Sunni financial support of them in fighting Assad likely will go on too. In other words Assad will never have all of Syria under his control likely ever again. At present this is a given. So, as long as Russia has it's present stance, Al Qaeda likely will have it's own parts of the nation as well as northern Oil Wells etc to finance their war against Assad.
So, the only way for Al Qaeda maybe to leave Syria and go into Iraq or other nations instead would be for Assad to leave in one way or another from Syria. This appears to be exactly what is happening in Syria now and into the near and far future.
So long as a Cold War type proxy war exists with Russia keeping all aid agencies and other nations militaries out this problem will stay the same no matter what peace agreement is made. In other words no matter the peace agreement Al Qaeda will never honor it. So no peace agreement will ever change the dynamics presently on the ground in Syria.
The other thing to understand is that past Cold War types of Proxy wars also had really terrible humanitarian costs as well. Russia's stance likely will result in the end possibly in a nuclear war between Saudi Arabia and Iran at some point in the near or far future (within 20 to 30 years). And it is important to understand that Russia's stance is creating this war at present. So, the new Cold War is creating a potential bloody war between Saudi Arabia (and all other Sunni nations) against Iran and all primarily Shia nations.
Hezbollah is Shia also, so they are natural enemies to Al Qaeda. This war now between Hezbollah and Al Qaeda will likely have ramifications ongoing for hundreds of years into the future, especially there in the Middle East.
To the best of my ability I write about my experience of the Universe Past, Present and Future
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Wednesday, November 27, 2013
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