Monday, October 19, 2015

Why China Is Rattling the World

Chinese Trade is a Driving Economic Force

As China’s economy slows, countries with significant exposure to raw materials, like Australia and Brazil, are facing serious headwinds. Germany exports machinery and automobiles to China, which had been a counterbalance to slow growth in Europe.
China’s 2013 trade with each country Total value of imports plus exports
Russia
Germany
Japan
United States
South Korea
Taiwan
Hong Kong
Malaysia
Brazil
Australia
$500
billion
300
100
China’s exports and imports to:
United
States
Hong
Kong
South
Korea
Japan
Taiwan
Germany
Australia
Malaysia
Brazil
Russia
EXPORTS
$368
bil.
$385
$150
$91
$41
$67
$38
$46
$36
$50
IMPORTS
153
16
162
183
157
94
98
60
54
40
TOTAL TRADE
521
401
313
274
197
162
136
106
90
89
The New York Times|Sources: China's General Administration of Customs, via CEIC data

A Stock Market Slide Ignites Broader Fears

The Chinese government significantly intervened as its the stock market slid. Global markets initially shrugged off the weakness as simply a correction in a market that had doubled in the preceding year. But the tumult is now spreading around the world, as worries grow about the health of China’s economy.
Peak
June 12
Change in the Shanghai
composite index
relative to the peak
0
June 25
The Chinese central
bank injects cash into
the financial markets.
–10
%
Aug. 11
China devalues
its currency.
June 27
The central bank
cuts interest rates
and lets banks lend more.
–20
Oct. 19
China reports
growth slips in
the third quarter
–34%
July 1
Regulators allow homes
and other real assets as
collateral when borrowing
to buy stocks.
–30
July 8
–32%
–40
Aug. 25
China cuts interest
rates again.
Aug. 26
–43%
–50
July
June
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Aprill 2015
May
The New York Times|Source: Reuters

Economic Uncertainty Reigns in China

Although the government puts China’s official growth at 6.9 percent in the third quarter, some economists question whether the economy is slowing more quickly. Here are two alternative estimates of China’s output.
+20
%
China’s gross domestic product
Year-over-year change
+16
+12
+12
%
Official figures
Official figures
3d qtr.
2015:
3d qtr.
2015:
+8
+8
+6.9%
+6.9%
+4
+4
Estimates through the second quarter by:
Capital Economics
Estimates through the third quarter by:
Lombard Street
0
0
’05
’15
’05
’15
The New York Times|Sources: Reuters; Capital Economics; Lombard Street Research
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