(CNN)Until
Friday afternoon, Turkey remained a competent and stable, if
problematic, country that served as a buffer between Europe and the
imploding Middle East and a partner for the United States. It suffered
from terrorist attacks like European countries, and shared a world where
solidarity could be demonstrated by Facebook posts and projecting the Turkish flags on national monuments.
That changed with Friday's coup attempt.
Jenny White
The
military action, the results of which are still unclear, took Turkey
out of Europe and placed it squarely in the Middle East. It tore away
the country's stability, replacing polarization with what could end up
being outright civil war, whether the coup succeeds or not.
All
this adds yet another conflict to those already blooming like unholy
flowers on Turkish ground: ISIS suicide attacks; renewed fighting with
the Kurdish separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK); wholesale destruction of Kurdish towns by Turkey's security forces, which have been given immunity;
not to mention the ongoing low-level violence that infects Turkey's
society, especially targeting women. Turkey can no longer be a buffer
against violence; it has become a sacrifice on its own altar.
People take to the streets during clashes with military forces in Istanbul Friday.
As
a result, the reality is that Turkey's usefulness as a "safe" haven for
Syrian refugees is now in doubt, destabilizing the already morally suspect EU pact that provides money to Turkey in return for keeping hundreds of thousands of refugees.
Meanwhile,
Turkey's descent into what is likely to be a government witch hunt for
"putschists" and massive violent reprisals means more anger, more
polarization and a destabilized population that is more likely to seek
protection from outside.
Helmet and vests lay on the Bosphorous Bridge on Saturday.
Groups
like ISIS will likely capitalize on this disenchantment to seek more
recruits inside Turkey. From there, they will be able to pass to Europe,
just as jihadis in past years had moved through Turkey on their way to
Syria as the Turkish government turned a blind eye.
As the saying goes, the enemy of my enemy is my friend, and ISIS and
other jihadis were fighting Kurdish militants, Turkey's biggest bugaboo
that blinded it to all other dangers.
The
United States and opposition parties within Turkey disapproved of
Friday's attempted coup. But if the ruling AKP (Justice and Development
Party), led by President Erdogan, neuters it, as it appears at the time
of writing to have done, we can expect President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to
use it as an excuse to ruthlessly crush what thin spine of opposition
remains, breaking the back of the military once and for all and
arresting -- or worse -- all manner of perceived and real "traitors."
end partial quote of:
As you can see above in this well written analysis of what just happened by a western Scholar and professor of Turkish Studies, the world just lost a democracy to a dictator named Erdogan. Likely the name Erdogan, (at least for Turkey) will go down in history in a way similar to Hitler in Germany. We have just witnessed very likely, the permanent end of western style democracy in Turkey. We likely will also witness (within 10 years) the expulsion of Turkey from NATO because if Erdogan stays in power Turkey will become the Sunni version of what Iran is now. Or maybe more appropriately Turkey is now becoming through Erdogan the Islamic State of Turkey as ISIS fighters leave Mosul and Raqqa for Ankara and Istambul with Erdogan conveniently looking the other way.
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